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Fiscal stimulus package's primary flaw: It was too small

New York Times (NYSE: NYT) columnist Paul Krugman argues quite persuasively that the major problem with the fiscal stimulus package was that it was too small, given the financial crisis and the large economic crater the accompanying, pronounced recession created.

Further, the fiscal stimulus' many benefits -- including substantial job retention in essential public services such as education -- are harder to see and not likely to translate into too much political gain for President Obama and Congressional Democrats, he said. That's consistent with a political science axiom -- often repeated by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Massachusetts -- that "Congress gets little credit or benefit for averting something." Indeed, retained jobs are hard to see, and the fact that a local public school system is is still operating with as many teachers is an accomplishment, but one that most American voters will take for granted, and not give Democrats credit for.

Continue reading Fiscal stimulus package's primary flaw: It was too small

Economically, Democrats still don't have a large enough majority in Congress

Amid the lamentable health care reform debate, one fact is incontrovertible: despite President Barack Obama's large 2008 presidential election victory, one in which the Democrats gained 21 seats (to 257-178) in the House and eight seats in the Senate (59-40, not counting the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy's seat), the Democratic Party's majority still is not large enough to pass progressive legislation.

The solution to this is obvious enough: win more seats in the 2010 off-year congressional election, and then in the 2012 presidential/congressional election. And how does a majority party accomplish the above? By solving the nation's problems. These days, that means: 1) getting the U.S. economy growing again with robust job growth, 2) keeping the U.S. safe against international terrorism, and 3) ending the Iraq War successfully and making substantial progress toward victory in the Afghanistan War.

Continue reading Economically, Democrats still don't have a large enough majority in Congress

Obama takes on the credit card companies

Obama speaks to credit card companiesObama has definitely walked into office with a lot of things on his plate, and consumer credit debt has to be one of the top priorities.

As a society, Americans are pretty deep in credit card debt, and once you fall even one payment behind, you are asking for big trouble. While the current recession has led to banks bringing in fewer dollars, it has also been a golden chance for them to be abusive to loyal customers.

Continue reading Obama takes on the credit card companies

If the U.S. economy strengthens, Fiscal Stimulus II may be shelved

In his column last week, New York Times (NYSE: NYT) columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman laid waste to those who argue that he's not critically assessing Obama administration programs. He offered a cogent critique of the U.S. Treasury's tardiness regarding the banking system fix.

Either temporarily nationalize those banks that are clogging the system, buy the toxic assets at unsubsidized prices, or announce some other market-valued removal plan to unclog the system, but let's put this train in motion, Krugman said, in so many words, to get to the root of the matter: We need to get credit flowing freely to facilitate commerce.

Continue reading If the U.S. economy strengthens, Fiscal Stimulus II may be shelved

Will the U.S. economy need a second fiscal stimulus package?

In the landmark, blockbuster film "Jaws" (1975), reluctant sailor, Police Chief Martin Brody (Roy Scheider), while chumming bait, gets his first look at the great white shark that's been terrorizing Amity's shoreline community. Captain Quint (Robert Shaw) and Marine Biologist Matt Hooper (Richard Dreyfuss) are immediately struck by the shark's size.

But Chief Brody is struck by another reality. "You're gonna need a bigger boat," Brody said.

In today's environment, with the U.S. economy in a pronounced recession and credit markets still constrained, the Keyensians - - which include most Congressional Democrats - - are playing the role of Chief Brody. They know what's needed to go after that shark (the recession).

'You're gonna need a bigger stimulus.' (In this case the 'bigger stimulus' means a second stimulus package.)

Continue reading Will the U.S. economy need a second fiscal stimulus package?

Are Republicans history?

Last night's vote to send the $787 billion stimulus bill to President Obama's desk raises an interesting question: Are Republicans destined to become an ever smaller minority? Can the Republican party come up with new ideas that will attract enough voters to help it win back seats in Congress and take back the White House?

The voting numbers reveal that important legislation can get passed without Republican support. For example, the House vote was 246 to 183, with just seven Democrats joining all 176 Republicans in opposition. In the Senate, the vote, 60 to 38 reflected the pick up of three centrist Republicans who joined 55 Democrats and two independents in favor. Simply put, Republicans can talk themselves into red-faced stupors and it won't change the result.

Continue reading Are Republicans history?

Where does the U.S. economy go from here?

The U.S.'s first fiscal stimulus package 'of size' since the recession's start has passed - - albeit in a modified form that decreased spending by about $140 billion over the original outline.

Further, the young President Barack Obama, like the young President John F. Kennedy, has learned that presidential honeymoons can be short inside the beltway, particularly if you have to trade policy to obtain votes both inside your party and among the loyal opposition.

Meanwhile, investors and the financial community more broader await the specifics pertaining to Obama administration's revised plan to stabilize the banking system, with the declining Dow discounting that even a successful plan will require months of systemic adjustment, and, of course, more public funds.

Continue reading Where does the U.S. economy go from here?

Fiscal stimulus package is big, but may not be big enough

As the U.S. Senate prepares to vote on an $820-$900 billion fiscal stimulus bill and send it to a House / Senate conference committee, a stark reality confronted lawmakers: the stimulus package may not be large enough.

A group led by Senate Moderate Republicans and selected Democrats cut roughly $60-80 billion from the bill, in what they believe to be wasteful spending and / or items not directly related to stimulating the economy.

Economist Richard Felson said lawmakers may find themselves staring at an economy in six months that needs another stimulus jolt, and given the two options, it's better to provide the stimulus all at once, from a GDP-impact standpoint.

Continue reading Fiscal stimulus package is big, but may not be big enough

NYT's Krugman: Now is really the time for Congress to choose correctly

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman knows the situation facing the United States is very serious, so he doesn't mince words.

columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist knows the situation facing the United States is very serious, so he doesn't mince words.

Krugman outlined: The housing sector has collapsed. Consumers have sharply decreased their spending, due to a declining stock market, home prices, and stagnant wages. Businesses are cutting investment. Exports, the formerly one strength of the economy, are plunging, as the recession grips emerging markets. The Fed has already cut short-term interest rates to zero. And there are signs of deflation. In sum, the U.S. economy is very close to the dreaded negative spiral that tends to feed on itself, and that could continue for a long, long time without fiscal stimulus.

Hence, the nation needs to pass the fiscal stimulus package, and if anything, the current package is too small, he argued.

Continue reading NYT's Krugman: Now is really the time for Congress to choose correctly

Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill

Now we're talking fiscal stimulus. In a move to provide stimulus and economic incentives to a sector that, arguably, needs them the most, the U.S. Senate has added to the fiscal stimulus package a tax credit for up to $15,000 for homebuyers, The New York Times reported.

Economists and public policy analysts caution that the Senate has yet to vote on the stimulus bill, and the legislation, if approved, would then have to be reconciled, via a conference committee, with the stimulus package passed by the House. Nevertheless, economist Peter Dawson still likes the direction of the February wind in Washington.

Continue reading Ray of Light: U.S. Senate adds $15,000 homebuyer tax credit to stimulus bill

President Obama pushes hard for $900 billion stimulus

President Obama is starting to flex his leadership muscles and spend his hard-won political capital.

In remarks before House Democrats in Virginia Thursday night that sounded more like one of his successful campaign speeches that energized millions, Obama argued that the nation's economic well being requires swift approval of the roughly $900 billion fiscal stimulus package.

Continue reading President Obama pushes hard for $900 billion stimulus

Bailed out bank executives, if smart, will accept Obama's $500k cap

With the Obama administration's $500,000 executive pay cap for bailed out companies imposed, the more important and more determining question concerns how the American people respond.

Ironically, the public's reaction may hinge on how Wall Street and the broader financial community reacts.

Historically, Americans have opposed pay caps and generally looked unfavorably on government -- particularly federal government -- efforts to interfere with market-based valuations of talent / labor. In a nutshell, the public favors a minimum wage but believes "the sky's the limit" regarding compensation; if a board of directors, business partner or negotiated contract says you're worth $10 million a year in salary and bonus, then you deserve $10 million year.

Continue reading Bailed out bank executives, if smart, will accept Obama's $500k cap

Economists: Modify fiscal stimulus package, but pass it, pronto

Senate debate resumed Tuesday on the fiscal stimulus package, and as it did several economists offered their policy advice for the august members of the world's greatest deliberative body.

The biggest change should concern size, so says economist David H. Wang. "It's too small. A $900 billion plan is good, but the stimulus plans that most effectively increase GDP are ones that are large, and the bigger the package, the bigger bang you'll get for your buck, from a GDP standpoint," Wang said. Wang said he would add at least $300 billion in spending to the plan.

Continue reading Economists: Modify fiscal stimulus package, but pass it, pronto

NYT's Krugman: Here's a better bank rescue, for the taxpayer

You have to appreciate the cleverness of this era's financial humor. (Note that I said, appreciate the cleverness, not love, or enjoy. That's because, depending on your perspective, the humor is either on-the-mark, or not that funny. But that is part of the subjective nature of humor.)

One joke making the rounds:

Question: What's the capital of Iceland?

Answer: $25.

Another: In the old days, banks lent money to people. These days, people lend money to banks.

New York Times (NYSE: NYT) columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman discusses bank capital and lending in his most recent column, and argues that the apparent likely Obama administration fix for the banking sector -- a combination of U.S. government purchase of toxic assets and guarantees against losses on other assets, each on terms favorable to the banks -- represents a lousy deal for the U.S. taxpayer, who'll end up "footing the bill for rescuing the banks."

Continue reading NYT's Krugman: Here's a better bank rescue, for the taxpayer

Ray of Light: Obama administration may offer mortgage refinance plan

Economists note that the U.S. recession that has mushroomed into a global recession with constrained credit and falling demand began with the rise in foreclosures in the U.S. housing sector.

Hence, ending the rise in foreclosures, while it would not mean U.S. GDP growth would immediately follow, will help put the world's largest economy on the road to recovery, many economists agree.

Further, it looks like the Obama administration is set to make a large financial commitment toward achieving that goal by allocating up to $100 billion of the TARP's second $350 billion in bailout / rescue funds for home mortgage refinances, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Continue reading Ray of Light: Obama administration may offer mortgage refinance plan

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 08:28 PM

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