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Expedia -- Confidence building in the on-line travel company

The on-line travel business is coming out of its first major downturn. Who is positioned to benefit most from the current upswing? Expedia Inc (NASDAQ: EXPE) is being mentioned more frequently. So much so that the on-line travel giant announced a $3.5 billion share repurchase this morning.

Thomas Weisel believes Expedia is in the early stages of a potentially material turnaround, regardless of any LBO or buyback and has placed a $37/share price target, in a report published yesterday. Expedia's stock rallied late last week on news that it might be taken private. Barry Diller, the on-line travel giant's CEO, owns 58% of the voting stock.

Much of the on-line travel business has gone through considerable consolidation as financial buyers bought up Travelport (Cendant's on-line travel business) and Sabre Holdings, which owns Travelocity, was acquired by Silver Lake and Texas Pacific Group. The change in ownership helped add pricing discipline to the market.

Expedia has invested close to $1 billion in developing software to improve services and develop new products. So much for believing the Internet has low barriers to entry. Who is going to be able to replicate a decade of code writing to surpass the purest Internet travel play. The answer is no one.

Expedia changed management a year ago and is beginning to see the fruits of new strategies. In addition, Expedia appears to benefit from economic slowdowns as its on-line reservation platform is a great vehicle to reduce excess hotel room inventory. Stock upgrades, LBO speculation and improved operating performance all bode well for Expedia shareholders.

Intel to increase buybacks

In April, we blogged twice that investors should start chipping away at the chip giant. However, it appears investors should become more aggressive as both sentiment and fundamentals are changing for the positive at Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC).

According to a report released by Citigroup's Glen Yeung, Intel is "likely to substantially accelerate" its share repurchase program in coming months. Historically, Intel has picked up its share repurchase program when earnings are about to re-accelerate.

Intel repurchased a measly $400 million worth of stock in the first quarter, but has $16.9 billion to go on its current repurchase program, according to Yeung.

We blogged in April that Intel was washed out, with not too many sellers remaining. In addition, it appeared gross margin expansion was on the horizon, another bullish sign for the stock. It is time to go from chipping away at Intel's stock and loading the truck up with the Santa Clara-based company. Intel has seriously wounded its nearest competitor AMD, once again, which means Intel has room to increase prices, margins and profits.

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 10:37 AM

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