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Dollar Tree Stores (NYSE: DLTR) saw its shares decline Monday after an analyst from JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) said the stock price for the discount retailer is already too high in light of declining consumer spending.

That's all well and good (and somewhat true), but for a retail store "where everything is a dollar," it's hard to see the core customer contingent of Dollar Tree curbing spending for all those $1 items any time soon. In fact, wouldn't logic say that more people may visit Dollar Tree for all those household goods as all those collective belts are being tightened?

Dollar Tree shares lost over 6% based on the analyst's comment, and they now stand at a little over $37 this morning. The downgrade from Neutral to Underweight caused the shares to close just over $35 on Monday, and have since recovered slightly.

The general reasons were given in the downgrade, including the macro economic environment of the U.S. spending scenario at the moment -- particularly for lower-income households (Dollar Tree's core customer) -- as Dollar Tree was mentioned along with discount retailers Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Will Dollar Tree's $1 pricing model really fall under pressure soon due to so many consumer spending issues? With a 25% stock price rise this year alone, perhaps it is time for the shares to cool off a little. I'm just not convinced we'll see a flock of customers abandon $1 products.

Dollar Tree (DLTR) shares dip on soft consumer spending fears originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Oct 2007 12:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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