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Kohl's stock is strong today on earnings, but should you chase it?

Kohl's Corporation (NYSE: KSS) is up over 7% as I write this. Wall Street is apparently infatuated by the company's Q2 numbers, issued on Thursday after the bell. On the surface, however, one might question why there's such an interest. After all, the top line increased only 4% and the bottom line actually decreased 7% to $0.77 per diluted share. And, more dishearteningly, same-store sales, a vital metric for retailers, fell well over 4%. In fact, for the six-month period, same-store sales declined well over 5%.

Here's what Wall Street seems to be thinking. The gross margin expanded from 38.9% to 39.6% in the quarter. In the six-month timeframe, the gross margin expanded from 37.9% to 38.2%. Also, management increased its earnings outlook for the fiscal year from a range of $2.95 to $3.15 per share to $3.02 to $3.18 per share. This guidance assumes declines in comps of between 2% and 4% for each of the next two quarters. Kohl's beat estimates by $0.04, according to Briefing.com. And cash from operations more than doubled over the last six months to roughly $874 million.

All of that is pretty impressive, so I guess I can understand the buying of the stock to some degree. I do see some things to be concerned about, though. While gross margins went up, operating margins went down. Plus, I don't like the declining comps in this case. And I have to wonder how the economy will treat Kohl's in the coming holiday season. I definitely wouldn't be in a rush to chase this stock, especially after the run-up today. As I've said in other pieces on retail investing, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) are businesses I'd look at first in this sector. However, one thing I do have to concede is that the stock has been very strong lately, so there may be a case to be made for capturing some momentum here. Still, if I'm going for momentum, I might go with retail businesses that have stronger brand equities (in my opinion, at least).

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 02:21 AM

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