Consumer borrowing fell for the eighth straight month in September. This record-setting streak is due largely to tightening by lenders, unemployment and the conservative preference to pay down debt rather than spend. This widespread fit of fiscal responsibility, economists fret, could prevent a recovery from taking root, since consumer spending is responsible for 70% of the U.S. economy. This conventional thinking, of course, overlooks the fact that an eventual increase in spending that isn't fueled by consumer spending will yield a recovery that's more likely to last.

According to the Federal Reserve, borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September -- it's biggest drop since July and much larger than the $10 billion predicted by economists. The behavior is exactly what you'd find in people worried about losing their jobs or focused on rebuilding safety funds and investment portfolios. Those who want to borrow are finding banks won't be complicit this time, as they clamp down on lending practices.

Could we see a bit of a drop from American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) today? The retailer announced that its October same-store sales fell 5%, when the Street expected an increase of 1.7%. This disparity certainly seems to suggest that we could see the stock fall in today's trading action. The equity may find a measure of support from its 10-week moving average, which has filled this role throughout the stock's calendar-year rally. There seems to be some long-term support from AEO's 10-, 20-, and 50-month moving averages; all of which are in the $15 -$17 region. If the stock is going to fall, this support could be crucial. A drop through this resistance could spell a stock slide.

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) may be the world's largest electronics retailer, but it realizes that it faces a huge threat to a hefty chunk of its business. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is moving plenty of movies and other soon-to-be former DVD fare through iTunes, staking a claim on a business that once belonged to Best Buy. The big box store is getting ready to fight back (finally?).

Using technology it's licensing from Sonic Solutions (NASDAQ: SNIC), Best Buy is opening an online store for movies and television shows. Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn says this move will expand the company's presence in services and will bolster company loyalty. That's the press release version, of course. The reality is that Best Buy needed to do something to protect this portion of its revenue and probably should have made the move several years ago.

Once upon a time, retailers measured success by the number of people walking by in the mall, how many entered the store, the percentage they spent, and basket size. Now, a world of zeroes and ones has changed their perspective entirely. Social media is expected to be the star during the coming holiday season, with retailers pushing Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter content to get in front of consumers and affect either online or in-store purchases. Smaller Christmas budgets are expected, so the fight is on to garner as large a share as possible of a shrinking pie.

Of course, nobody would come out and say, "Social media is nonsense, and I'm not getting anything for my investment." So, when the likes of Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), JCPenney (NYSE: JCP), and Target (NYSE: TGT) say that social media is connecting them with their customers and leading to more effective campaigns and product launches, do take it with a grain of salt. What can't be ignored, however, is that they're committing more resources to social media marketing, even though it's still far too soon to tell if it will be effective.

Traditional retailers haven't exactly embraced online sales channels. Sure, they all have websites, and they sell varying amounts of merchandise through them, but they've been slow to tap into the potential. When I was watching the space as an analyst at a major consulting firm (admittedly, back in 2007), many retailers equated a website to a new store opening. Finally, however, this industry is starting to see the potential of this venue, particularly when it comes to tracking consumer behavior.

When the CEO of Macy's (NYSE: M), Terry Lundgren, says that online sales are only good for 6% of last year's total sales, it's a hint. The translation: "We focus on where the revenue is" is much different from "We focus on where the revenue could be." Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO), on the other hand, sees the upside of playing in the online space, which is where it saw revenues spike 85% last year. Aeropostale has seen increases in traditional venues too, but nothing like what it's realized on the web.

So, maybe there's something to this internet, after all.

After the closing bell on Thursday, internet retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) will step into the earnings spotlight. Experts believe that Amazon will report third-quarter earnings of 33 cents per share with revenue of $5.03 billion. Amazon forecast third-quarter revenue of $4.75 billion to $5.25 billion. In last year's third quarter, Amazon earned 27 cents per share with revenue of $4.26 billion.

With the economy struggling, what should we expect from Amazon? Reportedly, ThinkEquity saw traffic data that implies Amazon's unique visitors rose 23% in the latest quarter. If this is the case, the retailer's sales should have received a bit of a push in the quarter, which could lead to higher earnings. In fact, the ThinkEquity analyst (Ed Weller) told the Associated Press that he expects Amazon to report earnings of 35 cents per share on revenue of $5.13 billion.

In the current economic environment, a lot of companies are cutting back costs wherever they can in hopes of boosting earnings, but entertainment giant Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is taking a different approach and spending in hopes of boosting its sales.

Disney is hoping that by completely revamping its retail stores that it will be able to lure in more customers, keep them longer, and encourage more sales. In order to make the best of their new marketing direction, they have enlisted the aid of one of the greatest (in my opinion) retail designers out there, Steve Jobs.

We've watched stock market numbers bounce around for two years. Unemployment stats have served as unpleasant reminders that, for some, leading indicators haven't translated to reality. We look for so many ways to understand the brutal economic environment with which we've had to contend, and all the choices can make your head spin. So, let's make it simple. Here are eight ways to tack a label onto the financial world in which we live.

1. Lost market value
Total stock market losses from October 2007's top to March 2009's bottom: $11.2 trillion
Total gains in the stock market since the bottom: $4.6 trillion
Lost ground: $6.6 trillion

2. Bad days
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the Dow Jones Industrial Average that happened in 2008, by point drops: 60%
Percentage of the 10 worst days in history for the DJIA that happened in 2008, by percentage drops: 30%

3. Mutual funds
Value of mutual fund assets at the end of 2007: $6.5 trillion
... and a year later: $3.7 million
Lost value: $2.8 trillion

But, it got a little better at the end of August 2009: $4.5 trillion (value of assets)

Consumers are finally spending more, with September posting the first gain in more than a year. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) found that retail sales inched 0.1% higher last month. It doesn't seem like much, but a gain when you anticipate a fall is good news magnified. But, it came at the expense of great deals and other tools to entice somewhat hesitant customers into stores.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) and Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) reported sales increases in September for stores open more than a year. J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M) and Target (NYSE: TGT) posted declines, but they were better than expected. Delayed school openings thanks to a late Labor Day helped push to September sales that might have occurred in August otherwise.

Of course, all eyes are on the coming holiday season. The National Retail Federation forecasts U.S. consumer spending of $437.6 billion – up only slightly from $433.7 billion four years ago. So, we still have a lot of ground to make up before we can celebrate a recovery. As long as the situation is staying steady, though, we'll at least have a solid starting point.

Consumer debt levels fell again in August for the seventh month in a row. Facing continued instability in the job market, people are paying down their debt, as a way to protect themselves. Savings are up, and borrowing is down – which could weaken the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of economic activity in the United States.

Total consumer debt outstanding dropped by $12 billion in August, according to the Federal Reserve, reflecting an annualized rate of 5.8%. Reality outpaced Wall Street's expectations, which were around $10 billion. In July, consumer debt outstanding fell $19 billion (9.1%), which was the largest in hard-dollar terms since 1943 and on a percentage basis since June 1975's 16.3%.

While consumer fear is playing a significant role, as a touchy housing market and dicey job situation leave little to lean on, the banks are also responsible for the change in direction. They aren't lending as easily, with stricter standards limiting the amount of credit available to consumers. You can't spend what you can't borrow.

Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO), like Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR), is benefiting from the soft economy. Consumers love paying low prices, so they flock to these retail business models like moths to a flame. And judging by Family Dollar's Q4 report, people are still having a great time saving money.

Net income increased over 13% to 43 cents per share, which was two pennies higher than Wall Street's forecasts, according to our earnings preview. Unfortunately, sales weren't so great. Total sales went up 2.6%, and same-store sales saw a mere 1% gain. I would have expected higher growth in the comps metric.