According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the back-to-school shopping period isn't expected to be strong enough to help retailers. During the past five years, this shopping period has increased; but the NRF has forecast a drop of 7.5% to $47.5 billion this year.

This isn't just a slight drop, a 7.5% drop in sales is rather staggering. In fact, roughly half of the shoppers questioned plan on spending less this year when searching for goodies to take back to school. Ken Perkins of Retail Metrics notes that this isn't just a problem for retailers during the upcoming shopping season, weak back-to-school sales is "likely a harbinger of another difficult holiday shopping season."

Recession or not, people can't walk around naked ... especially not in the United Kingdom. (Iceland in summer? Fair game.) Marks & Spencer Group Plc (London: MKS:UK), the largest clothing retailer in the country, just sustained its smallest drop in sales in nearly two years thanks to some savvy deals (offered to consumers) and warm weather. After making their dollars pounds stretch for so long, shoppers were finally ready for a bit of style.

Revenue declined a modest 1.4% for the year so far, much better than the 2.5% average estimate offered by 16 analysts. This was good enough to push M&S shares up 4%. If all goes well, same store sales may start to increase soon, which means that a full recovery will be right around the corner. Same store sales have fallen for the past seven quarters, and company cut its dividend for the first time in almost a decade.

The discounts that helped lead to the recent M&S sales performance are responsible for 18% of the company's food sales (which are down 0.5% on for same store) – much better than the 2.4% estimate. General merchandise fell only 2.4%, beating the 3.5% projection handily.

Since late last year, retail has been hurt as the recession dug in for the winter and stayed throughout the start of the 2009 summer. Although job loss data for May just in indicates a steep drop (leveling off perhaps?), consumers are still pinching pennies and keeping savings under the proverbial mattress. One of the continuing casualties -- Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT).

The second-largest discount retailer in the U.S. said that same-store sales for May came in at a -6.1% level -- worse than analysts had forecast. Target CEO Gregg Steinhafel indicated sales "were somewhat below our expectations." By comparison, average same-store sales from 32 retailers in May dropped 4.6%, putting Target at a worse-performing range than most.

Mega-retailer Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) announced today that it will add more than 22,000 jobs this year. The firm will add these jobs by adding positions to its current stores, building, or expanding. The 22,000 jobs will be in store management, pharmacies, human resources, customer service, cashiers, and sales staff.

WMT says that its customer base is expanding thanks to the economic downturn, as shoppers are looking for lower prices during tough economic times. That said, the company has jettisoned 1,800 employees since the year began -- with 700 to 800 positions cut at its corporate headquarters, 400 when it closed a regional return center in Georgia, and 650 cut when WMT closed an eyewear facility in Ohio.

Trendy retailer Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) announced Thursday that its first-quarter earnings declined compared to a year ago. The khaki king's earnings were pulled lower by poor sales due to the economic crisis. That said, the company's quarterly earnings topped the consensus estimate.

For the quarter, Gap earned 31 cents per share, down from 34 cents a year ago, but a penny better than analyst projections. Sales for the quarter dropped to $3.13 billion, matching the Street's expected $3.14 billion.

This bit of bad news may be good news in disguise: Retail sales fell 0.4% in April. Considering retail sales fell 1.3% in March, we could call this recent data mini-bad news. For the year, sales were down 10.1%.

Retail sales are key to the U.S. economy, comprising 70% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product. Last month GDP showed a rise of 2.2% annualized with a jump of 9.4% in consumer durables. Inside the larger number, sales of electronics dropped by 2.8% and petrol station sales fell 2.3%. Building materials and health care rose.

Several national chains are talking up demands for reduced retail rents at locations across the country, according to a post in BNET.

That can't be good news for strapped mall operators, such as Simon Property Group (NYS: SPG), which have recently seen their fortunes turn upwards on the backs of analyst upgrades and economists calling a bottom to the Great Recession.

When Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) said during the recent holiday season that it was a very tough time in the retail industry, many believed it. Just a few short months later, the largest consumer electronics retailer in the U.S. went on to have a decent quarter in the midst of the current recession -- due in part to the vanishing of its largest direct competitor, Circuit City Stores.

Perhaps we were simply letting two months of gains cloud our thinking, or perhaps the situation was simply not as good as hoped. No matter what the reason, experts had believed that retail sales would increase by 0.2% in March. WRONG! Sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted 1.1% during March according to the Commerce Department.

The fall in consumer spending is more disappointing given the fact that the economy had shown some signs of life. Furthermore, first-quarter retail sales fell 1.2% from last year's fourth quarter sales, indicating that real consumer spending may have slipped again in the first quarter of 2009 following the 4% plunge in the last half of 2008.

Investors are expecting Wall Street to continue its recent winning ways.

Stocks are poised to open higher as investors await March retail sales data and the weekly unemployment report. Markets in Europe and Asia were higher.

Retail sales, though weak, may not be as bad as investors had feared. According to the Wall Street Journal, "Wal-Mart Stores and a select group of its discounting peers have helped retail sales exceed modest expectations every month since December, and that streak likely will continue."

Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) reported fourth-quarter earnings that dropped more than 75% from a year earlier as pocketbooks remained clamped throughout the holidays. It certainly seems that the market for high-end jewelry was far lower during the holidays, thanks to the current economic mess.

The retailer reported earnings of 25 cents per share compared to 96 cents per share a year ago. Taking staff cuts and other costs out of the equation, TIF's earnings checked in at 85 cents per share. The ex-item results were better than Wall Street's expected 80 cents per share. While revenue dropped 20% to $841.2 million, it topped the consensus estimate of $838 million.

One of the few companies not participating in yesterday's broad-based rally was retail giant Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT). Target said its fourth-quarter profit fell 41% in the quarter ended Jan. 31, 2009.

The Minneapolis-based company said earnings fell to $609 million, or 81 cents per share, compared to earnings of $1.03 billion, or $1.23 per share, in the year ago period. According to Thomson Reuters, analysts were expecting earnings of 83 cents per share.

After a long six months of watching retail sales continue to slip, we get a bit of good news today, as January retail sales actually moved a bit higher.

Before today's announcement, analysts had been expecting that January would be the seventh straight month of falling retail sales, and the consensus was that we would see around 0.8% in the month. The good news is that retail sales were indeed higher in January, with a reported 1% jump during the month.

Fortunoff may be the next retail chain headed for the scrap heap.

According to Bloomberg News, this once-venerable company is headed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and a possible liquidation. The demise of Fortunoff comes a year after Lord & Taylor parent NRDC purchased the company out of bankruptcy. At the time, NRDC thought Fortunoff was the best thing since sliced bread. Lord & Taylor even made available a $10 million line of credit to the chain. But now, the chain's lease at its flagship store has expired and the store, located on Fifth Avenue near Bergdorf Goodman, Prada and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) is vacant.

Macy's (NYSE: M) just cut 7,000 jobs, 4% of its workforce. Almost all retailers are suffering, so the question is which chain will have the next large round of lay-offs.

Bet on Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD). Its K-Mart and Sears stores have been doing poorly. If Macy's has to let people go, Sears has to be facing similar trouble.

According to the AP, Sears same-store sales fell 7.3% in December. On that basis, sales in Sears U.S. stores dropped almost 13%. That kind of erosion is just not sustainable. Not with the same cost structure Sears had last year. If anything, retail sales will be worse in the first part of this year now that the holidays are over.