After hitting a one-year high of $33.65 last July, the stock hit a one-year low of $6.41 on Tuesday. RF opened this morning at $8.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $8.09 and a high of $9.91. As of 12:45, RF is trading at $9.07, up 1.06 (12.8%). The chart for RF looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $5 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just one month as long as RF is above $5 at August expiration. RF would have to fall by more than 44% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
RF hasn't been below $6.40 at all in the past year and has shown support around $7 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 7/22) disappoint, but most of the banks that have reported so far have responded well to their earnings reports.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RF nor CMA. He does own and control bullish hedged trades on PNC and JPM.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.
You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.
First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.
We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Department store sector, SanDisk and CNET Networks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the department store sector to Neutral from Attractive after raising its 2008 oil forecast to $149 from $115, as it believes higher gas prices will impact consumer discretionary spend and sentiment. Goldman downgraded JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Neutral and also removed Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) from its Conviction Buy List.
JMP Securities downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Underperform from Market Perform based on increased competition in NAND, a potential decline in royalty income, valuation, and lack of catalysts from flash-based solid state drives.
CNET Networks (NASDAQ: CNET) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America following the tender offer from CBS (NYSE: CBS).
"Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) is no longer relegated to a tiny corner of the investment landscape; indeed, according to the Social Investment Forum, SRI now accounts for $2.7 trillion, up more than 18% since 2005," says Chuck Carlson.
Here, the editor of The DRIP Investor offers five stock that both rank high for their social responsibility and also stand out based on more traditional earnings and valuation analysis.
"The Social Investment Forum estimates that more than one in every 10 dollars under professional management in the U.S. is involved in SRI investing. What is driving the growth in SRI?
"One factor is the increasing numbers of women and younger investors among the investor populace have fueled demand for SRI investments.
"In addition, we see an increased focus on environment, social, and corporate governance issues. Further, widely publicized stories concerning global warming as well as various corporate governance issues, have caused many investors to reconsider how they deploy their investment capital.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Venoco, Newfield Exploration and Regions Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of Venoco (NYSE:VQ) to Buy from Hold on increased confidence in the company's 5%-10% 2008 production growth target.
Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings. The firm said there has been significant progress in the economics of NFX's Woodford play.
Citigroup upgraded Regions Financial (NYSE:RF) to Hold from Sell on valuation, as they their concerns are now priced into shares.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), Dell (DELL), Warner Music Group (WMG), KeyCorp (KEY) and SanDisk Corp (SNDK) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
HSBC upgraded shares of Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect the company's new drug pipeline investments.
ThinkEquity raised Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) to buy from Sell based on expectations for a better-than-expected July quarter due to strong consumer business demand.
Pali Research upgraded Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) to Neutral from Sell on valuation with the stock down 40% year-to-date.
Merrill upgraded KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) to Neutral from Sell following better-than-expected Q2 results.
JP Morgan upgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Overweight from Neutral citing increased demand for NAND applications and supply constraints...
OTHER UPGRADES:
Bernstein upgraded Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) was raised to Hold from Underweight at Keefe Bruyette.
Matrix upgraded Acuity Brands (NYSE: AYI) to Strong Buy from Buy.
Bernstein raised Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Chuck Carlson is the newsletter industry leader in DRIPs, or dividend reinvestment plans. Not surprisingly, then, his newsletter is called The DRIP Investor.
For those unfamiliar with these programs, DRIPs are dividend reinvestment plans, which are set up by companies to make it easier and more cost-effective for individual investors to buy and accumulate long-term positions by reinvesting dividends back into additional shares.
Usually, the commissions and other related costs of DRIPs are low, and in some cases, free. Says Carlson, "All things equal, a DRIP with no fees is better than one that charges fees."
He continues, "To be sure, I'm not suggesting investors should automatically discard a DRIP because it charges fees. Still, fees erode investment returns, so taking fees into account in your selection process makes sense."
To help investors find the most cost-effective way of building portfolios, the advisor has conducted a review of "fee-free" plans. Using a proprietary system that ranks 5,000 stocks based on over 100 metrics, he has developed a "starter portfolio" for those with limited investment funds. Such a starter portfolio, he notes, could be developed with as little as $1,000 to start.
He notes, "If I were constructing a reasonably diversified starter portfolio of six "fee-free" stocks, I would focus on the following issues:
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel (INTC), Caterpillar (CAT), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), M&T Bank Corp (MTB) and Regions Financial Corp (RF) were some of today's noteworthy initiations:
Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan based on expectations for margin expansion in 2H07 driven by share gains, stable pricing, and lower costs. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at American Technology as the firm believes the price war is ending sooner than expected and that NOR Flash could be divested soon.
Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect a re-acceleration in earnings growth and a lower probability of a recession.
Soleil upgraded shares of Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) to Buy from Hold as the firm believes WFC is an attractive late-cycle play with above-average growth prospects and superior risk management.
Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation. Oppenheimer upgraded M&T Bank to Neutral from Sell based on valuation and revised estimates. Keefe Bruyette raised Regions Financial rating to Market Perform from Underperform.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Susquehanna upgraded shares of NICE Systems Ltd (NASDAQ: NICE) to Positive from Neutral as the firm expects strong execution from the company's robust product set and increased market share following the Verint Systems' (VRNT) acquisition of Witness Systems (WITS).
Comerica (NYSE: CMA) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.
Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) shares are trading higher today with other financial stocks after a slew of positive financial earnings. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported a second-quarter profit of $2 billion, or 54 cents per share, beating analysts' predictions of 44 cents per share, while PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC) and Comerica (NYSE: CMA) also reported earnings and are trading higher. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RF.
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