Richard Rhodes, professional trader, money manager and editor of The Rhodes Report was one advisor who accurately forecast the recent decline and moved into short positions going into this past week.

And while he sees the potential for a near-term bounce, this week's action leads the advisor to say, "A major trading high has formed, which will lead to a -10% to -20% correction...perhaps deeper."

He explains, "If there was ever a 'bell' to signal the end of an intermediate or long-term rally; we think the decline from the S&P 500 high of 1565 to yesterday's low at 1465 suffices as such."

The constriction of credit and liquidity, he notes, has led to very poor advance/decline figures. As such, he suggests being a seller during any rallies that result fro the "month-end bullish pattern and short-term oversold condition."

Indeed, even in his Long Only Portfolio - a portfolio that as its name implies only holds long position - he now says, "We are going to a very rare, but very prudent 'no position' stance." As for his Long/Short Portfolio, he says, "We are now aggressively short."

Continue reading Trader sees 10% to 20% decline

Trader sees 10% to 20% decline originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Jul 2007 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

With many market commentators becoming increasing bullish as the market continues its move higher, trading expert Richard Rhodes cautions, "The tectonic plates beneath the market are shaking."

Th editor of The Rhodes Report explains, "Each day, we watch the current rally powering higher; and, each day we find our indicators becoming more and more overbought. While we are concerned about the overbought conditions, we are most concerned by the 'mini-mania' that has gripped stocks and the fact that this sharp rally is as narrow a rally as we have seen in many years."

He notes that the percentage of stocks above their 10-day and 200-day moving averages are now less than what they were at the February peak. He explains, "When the broader market rallies - then we want all the generals and troops moving together on a united front - and clearly this isn't the case.

And while noting that this is "worrisome," he also recognizes that it is foolhardy to attempt and call a short term top. He says, "We continue to believe that from a fundamental perspective that the probability of a bear market is higher than many anticipate at this time - however, the technicals don't yet support this." He quips, "It will end when it ends and not a day sooner."

Continue reading Technical outlook and trading trio

Technical outlook and trading trio originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 May 2007 09:27:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.