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Option update: Citigroup volatility aggressive after announced writedowns and leadership change

Citigroup (NYSE: C) announced $8-11 billion in write downs on its $55 billion exposure in U.S. subprime mortgages/CDOs.

C announced Charles Prince, Chairman and CEO has elected to retire from C. Sir Win Bischoff, will serve as acting CEO and Robert Rubin, will serve as Chairman of the Board.

C is recently trading at $37 in pre-open trading, below its close of $37.73.

Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month price target to $48 from $51.

C November option implied volatility is at 72, December is at 51, above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.


Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Will Robert "No Operational Responsibilities" Rubin chair Citigroup?

The New York Times reports that Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) may make Robert Rubin Chairman until it can find a CEO. This temporary solution is analogous to what Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) did by making Alberto Cribiore, a director, its interim non-executive Chairman.

Rubin, who has made $150 million at Citigroup since he left the Treasury Department eight years ago, has traded a sterling reputation at Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) and Treasury for a nice chunk of change at Citigroup. Unfortunately for him, making bank at Citigroup has tarnished his reputation -- despite his efforts to distance himself from Citigroup's problems. Meeting with clients and walking around without shoes offering advice -- known in his contract as "no operational responsibilities" -- does not seem to have buffed Rubin's reputation.

If the New York Times is correct, it remains to be seen how Rubin's role will change. It could be that his primary job will be to take the lead on recruiting Prince's successor. Will he take on an interim non-executive Chairman's role like Cribiore? I imagine he'll seek to evade legal responsibility for Citigroup's problems. Otherwise, he could end up spending more time than he'd like dealing with shareholder lawsuits.

Continue reading Will Robert "No Operational Responsibilities" Rubin chair Citigroup?

(Yet another) remonstration about the weak U.S. dollar

In the weeks ahead, BloggingStocks will take an in-depth look at the U.S. dollar's decline, its impact on the global and U.S. economies, as well as on job creation, trade, and investment.

Remonstrations about the weak U.S. dollar are getting to be a little bit like what Mark Twain said about the weather:

"Everyone seems to complain about the weather, but no one ever seems to be able to do anything about it," Twain said.

Similarly, everyone seems to complain about the weak U.S. dollar, but no one ever seems to be able to do anything about it.

This time it was former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who Tuesday told Bloomberg News that relying on a falling currency to increase exports isn't a "sound approach" and said policies should be implemented to strengthen the dollar.

Continue reading (Yet another) remonstration about the weak U.S. dollar

Hank Paulson's got an Enron-like crisis that could swamp Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM)

The New York Times [registration required] reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) are working with the Treasury Department to create a $75 billion fund to bail out Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV) -- of which there are thought to be $400 billion worldwide. What are SIVs? Why do they need to be bailed out? Why is the Treasury Department getting involved? Will the bailout plan work? Why should you care?

Before addressing these questions, it's worth pointing out that Hank Paulson, the current Treasury Secretary and former Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) CEO, has not had much success as a government servant. His efforts to talk China into loosening its currency have fallen flat. And a high-level government source told me that Paulson's brusque personal style has not endeared him to other economic policy makers.

When Paulson took the job in May 2006, I speculated that the reason he took it was so he would have the chance to outshine Robert Rubin, another former Goldman executive, whose tenure at Treasury was widely perceived to have been brilliant. I thought then that Paulson thought a financial crisis would occur under his tenure that would enable him to demonstrate his financial crisis management skills. The SIV crisis is a big problem but I doubt he'll rise to the occasion like Rubin did.

Continue reading Hank Paulson's got an Enron-like crisis that could swamp Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM)

Bernanke seeks street smarts

Bloomberg News reports that on August 17th, in the midst of the August credit crunch, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sought the advice of Citigroup (NYSE: C) Chairman and Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, mortgage backed securities inventor Lewis Ranieri and hedge fund honcho Ray Dalio of $32.1 billion Bridgewater Associates. Kenneth H. Thomas, a Wharton lecturer, obtained the information on Bernanke's calls and contacts under the Freedom of Information Act.

Although there are no details of what Bernanke discussed with these investment luminaries, I applaud him for making the effort. One of the things that helped Alan Greenspan to make decisions was the network of business and finance leaders which he had created when he headed his own consulting firm prior to his move to Washington. Such real world contacts are particularly important for Bernanke to develop given his academic background.

It would be very helpful for investors to know how Bernanke makes his decisions. But this little glimpse into his schedule reveals an obvious point -- it would be very difficult to believe that anyone Bernanke spoke with would not have obtained very valuable information from which they could profit. And we'll never know whether Rubin, Ranieri, or Dalio did just that.

The rest of us can always eat cake.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Parsing Paulson's pablum

Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) and current Treasury Secretary, has been spouting pablum about how he's never seen such a strong global economy. He's just following in the footsteps of cheerleader-in-chief, George W. Bush.

But Paulson is no dummy. He knows that his words have a tremendous impact on investors around the world who are nervous about the recent rapid market break. The key question is whether he knows enough to keep all the economic imbalances in the global markets from making his optimistic comments look foolish.

I'd like to hear how he would keep the massive debt load which the U.S. economy is carrying from creating a sharp economic reversal. Specifically, if the economy is so strong, I'd like to hear Paulson explain away these questions:

Continue reading Parsing Paulson's pablum

More shakeups at Ford

Today there has been some more shakeups over at Ford (F). Robert Rubin, former U.S. Treasury Secretary under Bill Clinton, has announced that he is going to be leaving Ford's board after six years of service. Rubin, who also serves on the board for Citigroup (C) said that the move was a result of potential conflict of interest between his roles with Ford and Citigroup. He made it clear that no such conflicts currently existed, only a possibility of future conflicts as the motor giant looks for ways to return to profitability.

As Ford continues the hard road back into the green, Rubin will be sorely missed. According to a Ford exec, Rubin "brought strategic thinking to every situation and has been a wise and generous counselor to me and to the company. However, I understand and respect Bob's prudent decision to resign as we continue to explore future strategic options."

Ford has been aggressively attempting to turn the company around this year, announcing closures of up to 14 plants, and just last week announcing that it would be cutting automobile production by 21% during the fourth quarter of this year. Indeed it has been a tough year on the auto-maker. During the second quarter the company reported a $254 million loss and July numbers were way below what the company had been expecting.

So what is next for Ford?

Continue reading More shakeups at Ford

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Last updated: May 29, 2012: 01:15 AM

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