Analyst Upgrades

• Home Depot (HD) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Heico (HEI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• MB Financial (MBFI) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Oshkosh (OSK) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Volterra (VLTR) and Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
• Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Cytec Industries (CYT) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

Analyst Calls

• Medtronic (MDT) to buy from neutral and 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• CarMax (KMX) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Points International (PTSEF) to buy from neutral at Merriman.
• Nokia (NOK) to market perform from underperform at Morgan Keegan.
• Amdocs (DOX) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Western Alliance (WAL) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Carbo Ceramics (CRR) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Rackspace (RAX) to buy from hold at Benchmark Co.
• Brinker (EAT) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

The list of stocks under consideration has been reduced from eleven to ten, to seven and now in today's story four. Starting with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety), I began a search to find one stock in each sector that might be suitable for inclusion in my list of 2011 stock picks posted last week Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begin.

Today we continue our analysis by examining return on equity (ROE), return on invested capital (ROIC), and price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG). Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. Sometimes there are clear winners and others there is little to separate one stock from the next. However, in total, a picture can be drawn that does portray a superior opportunity.

This series started with five major defense contractors and six major oil companies that are worthy considerations to help your portfolio survive a global crisis (see Chasing Value: You Must Own Defense and Oil for Safety). After the first review, one stock was eliminated from consideration: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR). The reason is in the first story.

Today we continue our analysis by examining price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash-flow (P/CF), and dividend yield. Each stock is ranked by sector and metric from best to worst. In the end we hope to narrow down our choices for candidates that might be added to Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- The Journey Begins.

We at BloggingStocks and everywhere else make the full gambit of prognostications, suggestions, predictions, guesses, analogies, and so forth in an attempt to improve potential investment opportunities for all our readers and provoke discussion.

All of this has its limits, but, if you are a fan of Professor Nassim NicholasTaleb and his best seller The Black Swan then you already have been warned that the events that have the greatest impact on our lives and our investments are most often unpredictable. We cannot predict the future nor can we anticipate the tragedies that will tank our portfolio's.

While I do believe predicting the future is, how should I say, futile, there are general clues as to which way the wind blows.

It's that time of year when I start thinking about my 2011 stock picks, and enough folks have been nudging me that I might as well get on with it. The list will not be finalized until the end of the month. During the interim time I will take readers through a number of possibilities, explaining the rational for my suggestions along the way and adding and subtracting until I get the list down to ten.

Today I will start by reviewing opportunities discussed in another post and determine which of these stocks might provide the best value. The list was originally cast as a globally diversified, large cap, dividend paying and relatively stable group of companies that would likely weather any storm. See: Chasing Value: Bonds, Gold, Stocks and Capital Flight

It certainly is presumptuous, perhaps even self serving of me to assume the market is going higher in the face of so much uncertainty.

The reason I hold this belief is that so much money is sitting on the sidelines and much of it is getting restless. It's one thing for those on a fixed income to suffer because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates so low, but it is quite another thing to expect $2 trillion dollars of corporate cash to want to live like senior citizens. That cash is a bigger drag on earnings with each passing day.

Early Tuesday morning, oil giant BP (BP) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2010 financial results, the same quarter in which the disastrous Gulf oil spill was finally capped. So what are the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expecting?

During the three months that ended in September, London-based BP also announced post-Gulf spill changes and plans to reinstate its dividend. Its earnings for that period are forecast to come to $1.51 per share, which is about the same as in the year-ago period. But revenue is expected to be 6.8% higher year over year to $72.5 billion.

The earnings crunch continues this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are anticipating lots of strong quarterly reports.

For example, year-over-year earnings growth from big oil Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to be in double digits. The same is true of many other energy and mining concerns reporting this week: Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Alliant Energy (LNT), Arch Coal (ACI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), CMS Energy (CMS), CONSOL Energy (CNX), DPL (DPL), Hess Corp. (HES), Minerals Technologies (MTX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), PPL Corp. (PPL), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Total (TOT), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Williams Companies (WMB) and Wisconsin Energy (WEC).

A few weeks ago, a good friend asked me for a stock recommendation that he might add to his Roth IRA. Three stocks with high yields came to mind that would be great in a retirement account. Note that I do not advise others what they should do, but share what I am doing or contemplating doing.

I recently included Merck (MRK) in a review of the granny portfolio, and discussed Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) in Chasing Value™: Buffett Must Be Buying Oil. I own Merck in all of my portfolios and have made Shell the largest holding in the largest portfolio. The third stock that I thought of I don't yet own -- Telefonica SA (TEF). I looked at it last May, and it currently pays a whopping 7.13% yield.

Analyst Upgrades

• Auriga upgraded Leap Wireless (LEAP) to buy from hold following the company's Q2 results and analyst day, citing valuation, longer-term potential for consolidation and prospects for business improvements. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target for shares to $16 from $19.
• Goldman upgraded Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from sell following the company's announcement to explore strategic alternatives. The firm raised its price target to $15 from $12.
• RBC Capital upgraded ESCO Technologies (ESE) to sector perform from underperform following the better-than-expected Q3 report. The firm raised its price target to $30 from $28.
• MetLife (MET) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• HSBC (HBC) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA.

Until recently, my largest positions were in financial stocks Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC). As a contrarian investor, I do buy on fear and sell on greed as "my pal Warren" has advised for many years. This has worked out to be very profitable over the past 18 months. However, in the past 30 days the financial stocks have dropped to second place in favor of oil and gas stocks.

I think the economic recovery is moving at a snail's pace, lowering anticipated demand for oil while gas was already depressed based on the same factors and the addition of numerous new large supplies. Add to this the mess in the Gulf of Mexico and the public's already negative sentiment about oil companies and you have the makings of depressed pricing in the sector.

The costs to BP (BP) associated with cleanup, containment, relief well drilling and damage claims arising from the Gulf oil spill has exceeded $3 billion, the London-based energy giant reported Monday.

This includes $147 million in payments to individuals, businesses and governments affected by the spill, which began April 20, but not the $20 billion escrow account that BP agreed on June 16 to set up at President Obama's insistence.

Analyst Upgrades

• Janney Montgomery upgraded MasterCard (MA) to buy from neutral. The firm has a $250 price target on the stock.
• Lazard upgraded Frontline (FRO) to hold from sell following the better than expected Q1 report.
• Knight Capital (NITE) was upgraded at BMO Capital to outperform from market perform. The firm cites valuation and improved fundamentals for the downgrade. The firm has an $18 price target on the stock.
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Carnival (CCL) was upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Computer Sciences (CSC) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.