Last week offered mixed messages about whether an economic recovery is indeed underway. The unemployment figures were not as bad as feared, but July sales numbers were nothing to write home about, despite the wild popularity of the so-called cash-for-clunkers program.

The question is, where has consumer confidence (and consumer spending) been? Retail is a good place to look, and as it turns out, this week several shopping mall and strip mall favorites will be reporting earnings for the most recent quarter.

What about President Obama? Can following his tastes result in shareholder profits?

As Leader of the Free World, President Obama must be careful not to seem too commercial, so it's unlikely that he will overtly endorse any product. And so we have to dig a little deeper and learn from his actions.

In a recent interview, Obama was seen at the burger shop, a favorite on the menu for the president. Will we see him at Red Robin Gourmet Burger (NASDAQ: RRGB)? His mere presence there would be an implied endorsement and could send fans flocking to their own Red Robin Gourmet Burger restaurant.

We all know the impact that celebrities have on businesses. One of the most obvious instances of this phenomenon comes from the Oprah Winfrey Show. For example, when a title makes it into her book club, millions of loyal followers immediately take action, and sales follow.

These days, Michelle Obama is giving Oprah a run for her money. The First Lady is being closely watched by millions, and she too has a loyal following. She also appears to have a fashion sense that resonates with consumers around the globe. We all saw the number of stories and speculation about her gown during the inauguration.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) is expected to report Q2 EPS today after the market close. JWN August 30 straddle is priced at $2.90, September 30 is at $4.40. JWN September option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ: RRGB) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. RRGB August 30 straddle is priced at $2.60, September is at $5.15. RRGB September option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 52 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Heelys (NASDAQ: HLYS) is recently up 68 cents to $5.55 in pre-open trading. Skechers (NYSE: SKX) made an acquisition proposal to acquire HLYS for $5.25 per share ($142 million) in cash. HLYS, wheel-in-the-heel footwear marketer, closed at closed at $4.87. HLYS traded at a record high of $40.09 in February 2007. HLYS over all option implied volatility of 77 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Solarfun Power (NASDAQ:SOLF) is up 19% on good earnings.

Adolor (NASDAQ:ADLR) is up 19% after getting approval for marketing of one of its drugs.

Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ:RRGB) is down almost 7% on poor earnings.

Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is off 3.5% without any visible news.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Durect, Red Robin Gourmet and ViroPharma were today's noteworthy initiations:

• RBC Capital thinks Durect's (NASDAQ: DRRX) overall portfolio is very attractive and started shares with an Outperform rating and $7 target.
  
• Red Robin Gourmet (NASDAQ: RRGB) was initiated at Jefferies with a Buy rating and $40 target. The firm believes the company has one of the few stable earnings stories in the sector, which should warrant a valuation premium in the current environment.
  
• JMP Securities believes ViroPharma's (NASDAQ: VPHM) valuation reflects several negative scenarios and notes that earnings will likely remain positive and that the company has a strong balance sheet; shares were initiated with an Outperform rating and $12 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Harmonic (NASDAQ: HLIT) was assumed with an Overweight rating and $14 target at Stephens.
  
• ThinkEquity initiated Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) with a Buy rating and $360 target.
  
• Broadpoint started Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) with a Buy rating.

Some folks say that a hamburger is just a hamburger, but that's just not right. There is an outfit in Greenwood Village, Colorado that makes them so big you need to back up and get a running start.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ: RRGB) is a casual dining restaurant chain, known for its menu of more than twenty gourmet burgers in a variety of recipes. There are more than 360 Red Robin restaurants across the United States and Canada. The company operates about 60% of the locations and franchises the rest. Major competitors include Burger King (NYSE: BKC), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) and Wendy's International (NYSE: WEN).

The firm pleased shareholders last week when it reported Q1 EPS of 44 cents and revenues of $212.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 42 cents and $211.6 million. Management also offered essentially in-line guidance for FY07 results. RRGB shares popped through 200-day, 50-day and 30-day moving average resistance on the news and then began to define a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the issue with five "strong buys," two "buys" and seven "holds." Analysts see a 20% average annual growth rate through the next five years. The stock's Price to Sales ratio (1.08), Price to Book ratio (2.81), Price to Cash Flow ratio (10.73) and Sales Growth rate (24.52%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.

Institutional investors hold about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks it has traded between $32.42 to $50.85. A stop-loss of $37.25 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Xilinx, Inc (XLNX), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB), Ingram Micro Inc (IM), Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) and Comtech Group, Inc (COGO) were today's more noteworthy initiations:

• Deutsche Bank believes upside remains on Xilinx Inc's (NASDQ: XLNX) margins and tax rates, initiating shares with a Buy rating and $38 target.

• JP Morgan waits for improved new unit volumes and better earnings visibility before getting more constructive on Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (NASDAQ: RRGB) and initiated shares with a Neutral rating.

• Given the lack of catalysts to improve margins above their peers, JP Morgan doesn't expect multiple expansions from Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) in the near-term, assuming shares with a Neutral rating.

• Deutsche Bank expects Silicon Labratories (NASDAQ:: SLAB) multiples to expand with operating margins, starting shares with a Buy rating and $40 target.

• Needham believes Comtech Group Inc (NASDAQ: COGO) is uniquely leveraged to benefit from the growth of manufacturing in China and started shares with a Buy rating and $21 target...

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Deutsche Bank initiated shares of Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) with a Buy rating.

• Citigroup started GTx, Inc (NASDAQ: GTXI) with a Buy rating.

• Pacific Growth started Itron, Inc (NASDAQ: ITRI) with a Buy rating.

• First Marblehead Corp (NYSE: FMD) was initiated with a Hold rating and $38 target at Sandler.

• UBS started Kaiser Aluminum Corp (NASDAQ: KALU) with a Buy rating and $100 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Warner Music Group Corp (WMG), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc (RRGB) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK.A) were some of today's notable upgrades:

• Pali Capital upgraded shares of Warner Music Group Corp (NYSE: WMG) on valuation.

• Matrix USA upgraded Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (NASDAQ: RRGB) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) was upgraded to In Line from Underperform at Fox-Pitt, Kelton.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• UBS upgraded ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARMHY) to Buy from Neutral as the firm believes the company will be a significant beneficiary of the acceleration in 3G handset adoption in 2007.

• Wachovia upgraded Pactiv Corp (NYSE: PTV) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation.

• Baird raised Patterson Companies (NASDAQ: PDCO) rating to Outperform from Neutral.

• BMO Capital raised UCBH Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: UCBH) rating to Outperform from to Market Perform.

• O2Micro International Ltd (NASDAQ: OIIM) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Oppenheimer citing a possible near-term court settlement with Samsung, which provides significant earnings leverage.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Electronic Arts, Inc. (NASDAQ:ERTS) shares were up 12% to $59.45 in heavy trading with two hours to go in the session. Already in the pre-market, ERTS rose more than 8% after reporting earnings that beat estimates and boosting its fiscal year guidance as well as having a positive industry outlook for next year.

ERTS reported a 16% increase in sales for the quarter to $784 million, while analysts had expected $673 million. Some of the company's games such as the Madden NFL '07 and NCAA Football '07 saw record sales. The company is gearing up for the new PlayStation 3 from Sony Corporation (NYSE:SNE) which should launch this month.

Electronic Arts also raised its full-year sales forecast and said it would earn up to 15 cents a share for the year. This is compared to a previous forecast of breaking even.

Conversely, shares of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB) plunged more than 27% to $33.52 in heavy trading today. The casual hamburger restaurant reported quarterly earnings yesterday, posting earnings of $6 million, or 36 cents a share, on revenue of $148.6 million. While analysts were expecting 43 cents a share, excluding a charge, the company would have earned 42 cents a share. The company also lowered its forecast for the year.

Red Robin was hit with four downgrades from CIBC, Friedman Billings Ramsey, Bank of America and Bear Stearns. Weakness in new markets and a reduction in earnings growth were cited as reasons for the downgrades.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Gap (GPS), Red Hat (RHAT) and Red Robin (RRGB) top today's extensive list of downgrades.

• Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GPS) was downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation at Citigroup. The firm believes the 25% rally in the past two months had priced in much of the improvements at Gap.
• Red Hat, Inc. (NASDAQ:RHAT) was downgraded at Robert W. Baird to Neutral from Outperform following Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ:MSFT) partnership announcement with Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ:NOVL).
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB) was downgraded at four firms this morning: CIBC, Friedman Billings Ramsey, Bank of America and Bear Stearns. The downgrade was based on weakness in new markets and a reduction in earnings growth.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Oppenheimer, citing disappointing guidance and indications that the licensing dispute with Nokia (NOK) could extend several quarters.
• Needham downgraded Powerwave Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:PWAV) to Hold from Buy after their weak fourth quarter report.
• Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight. The firm cited valuation and competitive pressures from CSX Corp (CSX).

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).