This holiday season retailers are gearing up for one of the worst years yet. They've read the news and know that unemployment is up, people are putting off large purchases, and we're in the midst of a financial crisis. These unfortunate facts are not only reflected in most retail store's bottom lines, but also in stock prices. The Retail HOLDRs (AMEX: RTH) exchange traded fund (ETF) is showing a bit of an unexpected trend as it recently outperformed the market from its highs in September 2008.

It must be noted that the success of RTH is its share of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), which is a full 26% of the holdings. RTH has done very well in the current economic environment as people are looking for the best deals across the boards. Year to date, RTH is down about 25%, compared to the S&P which is down about 40%. In fact, not only is Wal-Mart not following economic predictions for the retail market, but other retail stores may also see less decline or even growth in the coming weeks. This is not the first time predictions have been dire, and yet the retail industry ended up smelling like a rose.

If you feel the outlook is more doomsday than it needs be, or if you see that the situation is actually ripe for a retail rally, consider buying RTH, which not only holds significant stock in Wal-Mart but also includes well known and big retailers such as Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), Lowes Companies (NYSE: LOW), Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) among many other household names.

Minyanville Founder and CEO Todd Harrison dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Holy cow, can it be any slower out there? I'm taking a break from trying to set the all-time record for meetings on a "slow" summah Friday to offer a quick take on a few topics.

Will Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) get married over the weekend?

• There hasn't been any price talk on Lehman so even if it happens, it's a bit of a crap shoot. Remember Minyans, Bear Stearns was taken over too.
  
  
• There is no doubt franchise value and a lot of smart people at Lehman. There's also a lot of baggage on their balance sheet. It -- like most of the financials -- is a double-edged sword.

December is a critical month for retailers - the holiday season is the busiest shopping time, and a large chunk of bottom-line profits is booked in the final month of the calendar year. In 2006, December sales accounted for about 15% of all sales for the retailing sector. But December 2007, as many were predicting, may be one of the worst Decembers this decade.

Tomorrow, same-store sales for this critical month will hit the Street and the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is expecting an overall gain of 1% among stores open at least a year. This is below the ICSC's earlier estimate of 1.5% and compares to a year-ago jump of 3.3%. If this estimate is on the nose, it will be the sector's worst December since 2002.

There are many reasons that the holiday-shopping season was a slow one: rising food and fuel costs, the credit market breakdown, continued housing woes. And because of all these reasons, many retailers were forced to offer sale prices and additional incentives to lure cautious customers into the stores. These discounts obviously pressured the bottom line.

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said it is time to start nibbling into retail stocks after he's been negative for a while. He thinks the Fed will start cutting rates soon and not everyone has realized they have bottomed out. The ultimate turnaround stock in the sector will be Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) because of the new management team. He is very particular here to only ease into the stock. He also likes Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) because it is down 20% and has a major growth vehicle. American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) is one that has insiders buying stock.

These 3 picks are interesting picks, although Gap seems to be mauled every month in crummy stores and won't be able to fix itself fast. maybe that huge stock buyback can help it. This one may only have the "less bad is good" future, because its shoppers have abandoned it. It's too hard to love the Gap and in a private equity absent market the hopes for a buyout seem a bit childish. Kohl's and American Eagle are both in a spot that could generate serious returns if these go back to their prior highs. American Eagle at $25.00+ would generate close to a 40% gain if it goes back to a year high of $34.80, and Kohl's at $57.00+ would also show close to a 40% gain for it to hit $79.55.

It is far too easy to call for the death of the consumer because you'd have to say "But, this time the consumer really will be dead." Rumors of the death of the consumer seem to ALWAYS be exaggerated time after time. The safest bet here for the whole retail sector is perhaps the Merrill Lynch Retail HOLDRs, although you should realize that the big box retail plays dominate this and smaller clothing retail plays are not represented well at all in this one. The other targeted ETF for the group is PowerShares Dynamic Retail. That one does have this specific clothing retail mixed into more of a broad pool. It is just less liquid.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter and does not own securities in the companies he covers.