Alcoa (AA) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chalco (ACH).

The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.68 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.

Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value

The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.

Aluminum prices have increased over the last two years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.

We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.

With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.

See the complete $17.68 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock.

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Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities upgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to outperform from market perform based on valuation and checks that indicate strength in enterprise PCs, high growth geographies and light laptops. The firm has a $50 target on the stock.
• RBC Capital upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to outperform from sector perform, citing the company's improving growth plans and attractive risk profile.
• Goldman upgraded FormFactor (FORM) to neutral from sell, but lowered its price target to $6 from $10. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade.
• MCG Capital (MCGC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• CRH (CRH) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Melco Crown (MPEL) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Upgrades

• Collins Stewart upgraded BP (BP) to buy from hold after the company canceled its dividend payments and agreed to put $20 billion in a claims escrow fund.
• Credit Suisse upgraded First Solar (FSLR) to outperform from neutral and raised its target to $150 from $110.20. The firm raised estimates given expectations for strong demand and lower costs and believes pricing upside for Q2/Q3 is not reflected in valuation.
• Argus upgraded EMC (EMC) to buy from hold, citing valuation and notes that the company's VMware (VMW) stake is undervalued.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Societe Generale.
• Sunoco (SUN) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• UBS (UBS) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at Macquarie.

Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities upgraded Boston Properties (BXP) to outperform from market perform and has an $89 price target on the stock. The firm upgraded shares based on near-term catalysts that include, the potential start of 1msf of development in Midtown, investments, and selection as 1 World Trade Center project manager.
• Baird upgraded Bucyrus (BUCY) to outperform from neutral, citing valuation and an a more favorable view of the Terex Mining acquisition. The firm has an $83 price target on the stock.
• Jefferies upgraded Warner Chilcott (WCRX) to buy from hold and has a $30 price target on the stock. The firm upgraded shares based on valuation and conservative guidance.
• AmeriCredit (ACF) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.

"Economic activity is increasing across the world., with Asia and emerging markets ahead of the pack, leading the dramatically increasing demand for commodities over the past year.; the major miners are reporting large increases in demand, outstripping production capacity in many cases," says global markets specialist Horacio Marquez.

The editor of The Money Map Report explains, "That's great news for mining companies. In fact, the big producers all blew away market expectations in their last reports. But it's even better news for Rio Tinto (RTP).

A new method of setting the price on iron ore for export is upsetting Chinese and European steel makers and auto manufacturers, but that same pricing scheme is most likely going to benefit U.S. steelmakers such as AK Steel (AKS), Nucor (NUE) and U.S. Steel (X).

In the past, iron ore pricing was largely set on an annual basis, with the first negotiated ore contracts of the season setting the price for the duration of that season. However, this year, the three largest iron ore miners, BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP) and Vale SA (VALE), have decided that they will seek quarterly renegotiation of ore contract pricing. This will allow those companies to take better advantage of increases in iron ore demand and spikes in spot prices.

A Shanghai court early Monday decided that four Rio Tinto (RTP) employees were guilty of accepting bribes and stealing state secrets.

According to reports, Australian national Stern Hu received 10 years in prison, Wang Yong received 14 years, Ge Minqiang was sentenced to eight years, and Liu Caikui was sentenced to seven years. There were also some fines for Hu associated with the charges. All four of the accused plead guilty to bribery, but argued the size of the bribes offered.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to buy from hold on valuation as it believes the recent pullback in shares provides a buying opportunity. The firm raised its target on shares to $57 from $45.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Expedia (EXPE) to buy from hold on valuation as it finds the risk/reward on shares attractive following the company's Q4 results and believes revenue margin concerns are overblown. The firm has a $27 price target on the stock.
• Jesup & Lamont upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to hold from sell following the company's Q4 results to reflect its improving traffic trends. The firm raised its target on shares to $96 from $81. Shares were also upgraded at BofA/Merrill to buy from neutral.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• FirstEnergy (FE) was upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.

Analyst Upgrades

• Barclays upgraded Visa (V) to overweight from equal weight following the Q1 report and guidance. The firm raised its target to $97 from $91.
• Merriman upgraded AOL (AOL) to neutral from sell on valuation and better trends in online advertising.
• Barrington upgraded Idex (IEX) to outperform from market perform following the results on expectations the company's 2010 sales and profits will recover. The firm set a $36 target on shares.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to neutral from underperform and BHP Billiton (BHP) to outperform from neutral.
• Posco (PKX) was raised to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• MetLife (MET) was upgraded at Keefe Bruyette to outperform from market perform.

Early Tuesday morning, Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup. The brokerage attributed the upgrade of the Spanish miner to attractive valuations and upgrades to RTP's iron ore prices.

Citigroup believes that the recent share price correction has shifted the mining preference back to RTP. The ratings house also likes RTP's strong cash generation in iron ore and copper, its balance sheet deleveraging potential, and its growth options.

Analyst Upgrades

• Canaccord upgraded BHP Billiton (BHP) to buy from hold. The firm expects BHP Billiton to emerge from the downturn with better operating margins and less dependence on an economic recovery. The firm also upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to buy from neutral but expects BHP Billiton to outperform near-term.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Raymond James (RJF) to market perform from underperform after raising estimates to reflect higher revenues and lower loan loss provisioning. Despite the upgrade, the firm remains cautious on the stock.
• Goldman upgraded InterActiveCorp (IACI) to buy from neutral. The firm upgraded shares based on improved momentum for its Search and ServiceMagic units and its belief that Ask.com may be an acquisition target. The firm believes Microsoft (MSFT) could be a logical acquirer for the unit once it receives approval for the Yahoo! (YHOO) partnership.
• Baidu.com (BIDU) was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Symantec (SYMC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.

We all got used to hearing about peak oil, especially after a whistleblower recently alleged that the International Energy Agency has downplayed a looming oil shortage to appease the U.S. and prevent panic buying. What we haven't heard much about is the looming uranium shortage. Last week, Michael Dittmar, from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, said that the world is running out of uranium and nobody seems to have noticed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency forecast last year said that power generated from nuclear plants could double by 2030 as governments look to alternative energy sources. So while there is great investment in nuclear power, uranium is not plentiful.

Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) was broadly lower Wednesday after mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) boosted its stake in the company from 9.9% to 19.7%. Rio Tinto raised its interest in Ivanhoe by purchasing 46.3 million common shares for $388 million. The proceeds will be used to help build and commission Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia.

Thanks to the capital infusion, Ivanhoe now has roughly $610 million in cash on its balance sheet. However, traders are hardly cheering the news -- perhaps because Rio Tinto snapped up the stock at a bargain price of $8.38 per share, representing a steep discount to Tuesday's closing price of $11.51.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $265 from $170, citing higher iPhone expectations, new partnerships, and likely upward revisions to Street estimates driven by gross margins.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm views a possible deal between end General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal positively, as it thinks NBC will provide higher-margin growth for Comcast.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Michael Baker (AMEX: BKR) to Buy from Neutral after the company completed the sale of its Energy business. The firm raised its target on shares to $46 from $40.
• Jefferies assumed coverage of Endo Pharma (NASDAQ: ENDP) and upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. The firm cites valuation, a strong base business, and solid cash flow for the upgrade, and has a $30 target price on shares.
• Marten Transport (NASDAQ: MRTN) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Early this morning, Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) found itself facing new allegations in the arrest of some of its employees in China. RTP is accused of overcharging Chinese steel mills by $100 million during the past six years, and the latest accusations cover the sale of iron ore.

To catch you up on the situation between RTP and the Chinese government, back in early July, RTP was accused of bribing officials and four of its employees were detained by authorities in Shanghai on suspicion of stealing state secrets. The allegations contended that the four employees bribed executives from 16 of China's major steel mills in order to obtain industry information.