Alcoa (AA) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chalco (ACH).

The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.68 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.

Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value

The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.

Aluminum prices have increased over the last two years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.

We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.

With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.

See the complete $17.68 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock.

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Rising Aluminium Prices to Drive Alcoa's Value originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Feb 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities upgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) to outperform from market perform based on valuation and checks that indicate strength in enterprise PCs, high growth geographies and light laptops. The firm has a $50 target on the stock.
• RBC Capital upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to outperform from sector perform, citing the company's improving growth plans and attractive risk profile.
• Goldman upgraded FormFactor (FORM) to neutral from sell, but lowered its price target to $6 from $10. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade.
• MCG Capital (MCGC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• CRH (CRH) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Melco Crown (MPEL) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BSX, FORM, HPQ, JACK, MCO, NFLX, PPL, RTP, VALE ...

Analyst Calls: BSX, FORM, HPQ, JACK, MCO, NFLX, PPL, RTP, VALE ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Sep 2010 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Collins Stewart upgraded BP (BP) to buy from hold after the company canceled its dividend payments and agreed to put $20 billion in a claims escrow fund.
• Credit Suisse upgraded First Solar (FSLR) to outperform from neutral and raised its target to $150 from $110.20. The firm raised estimates given expectations for strong demand and lower costs and believes pricing upside for Q2/Q3 is not reflected in valuation.
• Argus upgraded EMC (EMC) to buy from hold, citing valuation and notes that the company's VMware (VMW) stake is undervalued.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Societe Generale.
• Sunoco (SUN) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• UBS (UBS) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at Macquarie.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AAPL, AMZN, BP, DTV, EMC, FSLR, LMT, NOK, RTP, SNDK, UBS ...

Analyst Calls: AAPL, AMZN, BP, DTV, EMC, FSLR, LMT, NOK, RTP, SNDK, UBS ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Jun 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• JMP Securities upgraded Boston Properties (BXP) to outperform from market perform and has an $89 price target on the stock. The firm upgraded shares based on near-term catalysts that include, the potential start of 1msf of development in Midtown, investments, and selection as 1 World Trade Center project manager.
• Baird upgraded Bucyrus (BUCY) to outperform from neutral, citing valuation and an a more favorable view of the Terex Mining acquisition. The firm has an $83 price target on the stock.
• Jefferies upgraded Warner Chilcott (WCRX) to buy from hold and has a $30 price target on the stock. The firm upgraded shares based on valuation and conservative guidance.
• AmeriCredit (ACF) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: BUCY, BXP, HOG, RDS.A, RTP, SY, TIVO, WCRX, WPRT ...

Analyst Calls: BUCY, BXP, HOG, RDS.A, RTP, SY, TIVO, WCRX, WPRT ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 May 2010 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Rio Tinto (RTP): 'Set to Play Catch-Up'

Rio Tinto (RTP): 'Set to Play Catch-Up' originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 May 2010 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A new method of setting the price on iron ore for export is upsetting Chinese and European steel makers and auto manufacturers, but that same pricing scheme is most likely going to benefit U.S. steelmakers such as AK Steel (AKS), Nucor (NUE) and U.S. Steel (X).

In the past, iron ore pricing was largely set on an annual basis, with the first negotiated ore contracts of the season setting the price for the duration of that season. However, this year, the three largest iron ore miners, BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP) and Vale SA (VALE), have decided that they will seek quarterly renegotiation of ore contract pricing. This will allow those companies to take better advantage of increases in iron ore demand and spikes in spot prices.

Continue reading New Iron Ore Pricing Scheme Should Be Good for American Steel

New Iron Ore Pricing Scheme Should Be Good for American Steel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 04 Apr 2010 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A Shanghai court early Monday decided that four Rio Tinto (RTP) employees were guilty of accepting bribes and stealing state secrets.

According to reports, Australian national Stern Hu received 10 years in prison, Wang Yong received 14 years, Ge Minqiang was sentenced to eight years, and Liu Caikui was sentenced to seven years. There were also some fines for Hu associated with the charges. All four of the accused plead guilty to bribery, but argued the size of the bribes offered.

Continue reading Rio Tinto Staff Sentenced to Prison in China

Rio Tinto Staff Sentenced to Prison in China originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Mar 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to buy from hold on valuation as it believes the recent pullback in shares provides a buying opportunity. The firm raised its target on shares to $57 from $45.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Expedia (EXPE) to buy from hold on valuation as it finds the risk/reward on shares attractive following the company's Q4 results and believes revenue margin concerns are overblown. The firm has a $27 price target on the stock.
• Jesup & Lamont upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to hold from sell following the company's Q4 results to reflect its improving traffic trends. The firm raised its target on shares to $96 from $81. Shares were also upgraded at BofA/Merrill to buy from neutral.
• Rio Tinto (RTP) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• FirstEnergy (FE) was upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to perform from underperform at Oppenheimer.

Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: CMG, EXPE, NFLX, OSK, PNC, SJM, VCLK ...

Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: CMG, EXPE, NFLX, OSK, PNC, SJM, VCLK ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 12 Feb 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Barclays upgraded Visa (V) to overweight from equal weight following the Q1 report and guidance. The firm raised its target to $97 from $91.
• Merriman upgraded AOL (AOL) to neutral from sell on valuation and better trends in online advertising.
• Barrington upgraded Idex (IEX) to outperform from market perform following the results on expectations the company's 2010 sales and profits will recover. The firm set a $36 target on shares.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to neutral from underperform and BHP Billiton (BHP) to outperform from neutral.
• Posco (PKX) was raised to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• MetLife (MET) was upgraded at Keefe Bruyette to outperform from market perform.

Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: AOL, DWA, EMS, MET, OCNW, SYNA, V, WU ...

Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: AOL, DWA, EMS, MET, OCNW, SYNA, V, WU ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 04 Feb 2010 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Rio Tinto Scores an Upgrade from Citigroup

Rio Tinto Scores an Upgrade from Citigroup originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Feb 2010 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Canaccord upgraded BHP Billiton (BHP) to buy from hold. The firm expects BHP Billiton to emerge from the downturn with better operating margins and less dependence on an economic recovery. The firm also upgraded Rio Tinto (RTP) to buy from neutral but expects BHP Billiton to outperform near-term.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Raymond James (RJF) to market perform from underperform after raising estimates to reflect higher revenues and lower loan loss provisioning. Despite the upgrade, the firm remains cautious on the stock.
• Goldman upgraded InterActiveCorp (IACI) to buy from neutral. The firm upgraded shares based on improved momentum for its Search and ServiceMagic units and its belief that Ask.com may be an acquisition target. The firm believes Microsoft (MSFT) could be a logical acquirer for the unit once it receives approval for the Yahoo! (YHOO) partnership.
• Baidu.com (BIDU) was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Symantec (SYMC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.

Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: BHP, BIDU, GSK, IAIC, MA, RJF, TWX ...

Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: BHP, BIDU, GSK, IAIC, MA, RJF, TWX ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 13 Jan 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading So long peak oil, here comes peak uranium

So long peak oil, here comes peak uranium originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Ivanhoe Mines (NYSE: IVN) was broadly lower Wednesday after mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) boosted its stake in the company from 9.9% to 19.7%. Rio Tinto raised its interest in Ivanhoe by purchasing 46.3 million common shares for $388 million. The proceeds will be used to help build and commission Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia.

Thanks to the capital infusion, Ivanhoe now has roughly $610 million in cash on its balance sheet. However, traders are hardly cheering the news -- perhaps because Rio Tinto snapped up the stock at a bargain price of $8.38 per share, representing a steep discount to Tuesday's closing price of $11.51.

Continue reading Ivanhoe Mines secures $388M investment from Rio Tinto

Ivanhoe Mines secures $388M investment from Rio Tinto originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Oct 2009 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $265 from $170, citing higher iPhone expectations, new partnerships, and likely upward revisions to Street estimates driven by gross margins.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm views a possible deal between end General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal positively, as it thinks NBC will provide higher-margin growth for Comcast.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Michael Baker (AMEX: BKR) to Buy from Neutral after the company completed the sale of its Energy business. The firm raised its target on shares to $46 from $40.
• Jefferies assumed coverage of Endo Pharma (NASDAQ: ENDP) and upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold. The firm cites valuation, a strong base business, and solid cash flow for the upgrade, and has a $30 target price on shares.
• Marten Transport (NASDAQ: MRTN) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, NOK, USB ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AAPL, BAC, C, CMCSA, NOK, USB ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 02 Oct 2009 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading More trouble for Rio Tinto in China

More trouble for Rio Tinto in China originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Buy from Hold and added the stock to its Top Picks Live list following the company's investor day. Citi believes American Express' credit trends are improving and raised its price target on shares to $36 from $28.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Gardner Denver (NYSE: GDI) to Buy from Neutral after meeting with management to reflect expectations for EPS growth in 2010 and valuation. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) to Buy from Underperform and raised its target to $87 from $49 based on strong copper fundamentals.
• Cbeyond (NASDAQ: CBEY) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• Gibraltar Industries (NASDAQ: ROCK) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• Fortress (NYSE: FIG) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AXP, FCX, FIG, JPM, LYG, RTP ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AXP, FCX, FIG, JPM, LYG, RTP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Aug 2009 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Keegan upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Market Perform due to the increased visibility of Android-based launches, as well as the stock's valuation.
• OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Citigroup, which cited the company's stabilizing sales trend, accelerating share gains, and valuation.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT) to Buy from Hold on valuation.
• Cancaccord upgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Buy from Hold citing the turnaround in the aluminum business and its exposure to copper.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) to Market Perform from Underperform.
• BT Group (NYSE: BT) was upgraded to Neutral from Reduce by Nomura.
• Societe Generale raised L'Oreal (OTC: LRLCY) to Buy from Sell.
• Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Sandler O'Neill.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DIS, CSCO, K, MOT, OMX, RTP ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DIS, CSCO, K, MOT, OMX, RTP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's domestic retail business is improving while input cost inflation pressures are beginning to moderate. Citi raised its target on shares to $32 from $28.
• Jefferies upgraded Sybase (NYSE: SY) to Buy from Hold as it believes slowing core IPG licenses in the second half of 2009 are now reflected in guidance. The firm raised its target on shares to $41 from $34.
• Canaccord said Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) decision to ad video functionality into the iPod lineup is "very positive" as it expands its market into the low-end camcorder area. The firm, which upgraded shares to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $200 from $150, also views the launch of iPhone 3GS in all countries by the end of Q4 as another catalyst.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale.
• Renasant Corp. (NASDAQ: RNST) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• America Movil (NYSE: AMX) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Pali Capital.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AAPL, AMX, COST, KFT, LMT, RTP ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AAPL, AMX, COST, KFT, LMT, RTP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 22 Jul 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded SAP (NYSE: SAP) to Buy from Hold on expectations license declines will trough in Q2 and margins will expand going forward due to cost control and price increases. The firm has a $46 price target on shares.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) to Buy from Underperform on expectations the company will benefit from improving industry fundamentals in 2010.
• Citigroup upgraded Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) to Buy from Hold to reflect the firm's positive copper outlook, as well as valuation following the recent pullback in shares. The firm has a $58 price target on the stock.
• Phototronics (NASDAQ: PLAB) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) was raised to Hold from Sell at RBS.
• Peabody Energy (NASDAQ: BTU) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ACI, HOT, LUV, QCOM, RTP, SAP ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ACI, HOT, LUV, QCOM, RTP, SAP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• JPMorgan upgraded Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) to Overweight from Underweight to reflect performance and sales improvements, as well as benefits from the weakening U.S. dollar. The firm has a $94 target on the stock.
• Oppenheimer upgraded FormFactor (NASDAQ: FORM) to Outperform from Perform after channel checks indicated orders are recovering. The firm raised its target on shares to $30 from $22.
• KeyBanc upgraded Oshkosh (NYSE: OSK) to Buy from Hold citing the company's MRAP-ATV contract win, which they view as a "game changer." The firm has a $30 target on the stock.
• Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Ternium (NYSE: TX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Cathay General (NASDAQ: CATY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: LLY, NVLS, OSK, QCOM, RDS.A, RTP ...

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: LLY, NVLS, OSK, QCOM, RDS.A, RTP ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.