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Buyout Buzz Inspires Bullish KeyCorp Spread

Option volume has ramped up today on KeyCorp (KEY), with activity rising well beyond the usual level on both the call and put side of the tape. Taking a closer look at some of the major block trades on this regional banking issue, it appears that a single spread strategist is responsible for a healthy portion of this option volume.

Specifically, the trader purchased a block of 10,000 June 10 calls for $0.50 each, and simultaneously sold 10,000 June 8 puts for $0.25 each. The result was a net debit of $0.25 per pair of contracts -- which means the speculator can begin collecting profits on those purchased calls if KEY rallies beyond $10.25 by June expiration.

Continue reading Buyout Buzz Inspires Bullish KeyCorp Spread

Borders Nears Possible Bankruptcy Filing

Borders (BGP) storeRumors have been circulating for almost a month about Borders' (BGP) possible bankruptcy filing. People familiar with the situation told The Wall Street Journal that the filing could come as early as the middle of this month.

Borders has been trying to hold off the filing by delaying payments to vendors. But this is only temporary. Now the matter has reached a critical stage. The company has obtained about $500 million to $550 million in debtor in possession financing that would keep the company operating after a court filing.

Continue reading Borders Nears Possible Bankruptcy Filing

Boeing Could Be Facing Even More 787 Delays

Boeing (BA) logoBoeing (BA - option chain) stock is trading lower today on conflicting reports about the company's timeline for the debut of its highly-anticipated, but much-delayed 787 Dreamliner. Aviation Week published a report late Friday that the company has told several customers that delivery of its 787 Dreamliner will be delayed by up to 10 months, but Boeing denies this report, saying it intends to meet the current delivery date of Q1 2011. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BA.

Continue reading Boeing Could Be Facing Even More 787 Delays

EMC Lifted by Buyout Rumors

EMC logoEMC (EMC - option chain) shares are rising today as rumors are swirling that Oracle (ORCL) might be interested in buying EMC. This speculation pushed EMC higher by as much as 6% earlier this morning, but the stock's price has settled down some now. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on EMC.

EMC opened this morning at $20.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.75 and a high of $21.58. As of 12:25, EMC is trading at $21.06 up 0.76 (3.7%). The chart for EMC looks bullish and S&P gives EMC a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.

Continue reading EMC Lifted by Buyout Rumors

Qualcomm Rises on Apple Rumors

QCOM logoQualcomm (QCOM - option chain) shares are rising today on rumors that Apple (AAPL) has decided to use chips made by QCOM in its fifth-generation iPhone and second-generation iPad devices. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on QCOM.

QCOM opened this morning at $45.07. So far today the stock has hit a low of $44.77 and a high of $45.61. As of 12:25, QCOM is trading at $45.28 up 0.97 (2.2%). The chart for QCOM looks bullish and S&P gives QCOM a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Continue reading Qualcomm Rises on Apple Rumors

Dean Foods Takeover Speculation Resumes

DF logoDean Foods (DF - option chain) shares are up a significant amount for the second consecutive day after rumors resurfaced that Groupe Danone SA could be investigating an acquisition of the company. This rumor first came to light back in March, but since then DF has seen its share price cut by a third, which could make the company even more attractive now. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on DF.

DF opened this morning at $10.55 So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.50 and a high of $10.75. As of 12:15, DF is trading at $10.63 up 0.41 (4.0%). The chart for DF looks neutral and S&P gives DF a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Continue reading Dean Foods Takeover Speculation Resumes

Genzyme Lifted by Takeover Speculation

Genzyme (GENZ - option chain) shares are rising today on a report in the Wall Street Journal which says that Sanofi-Aventis SA (SNY) could make a formal takeover offer to GENZ's board that could be worth about $20 billion. SNY declined to comment on the report. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GENZ.

GENZ opened this morning at $70.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $69.97 and a high of $70.97. As of 11:55, GENZ is trading at $70.09 up $2.09 (3.1%). The chart for GENZ looks bullish and S&P gives GENZ a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Continue reading Genzyme Lifted by Takeover Speculation

Apple Stock Higher Amid Rumors of a New Product

On the final trading session before Christmas, Apple, Inc. (AAPL) shares hit an all-time high thanks to a published report hinting that another product announcement may be rolling in. On December 23, the Financial Times reported on its Tech Blog that Apple "has something big up its sleeve for next month."

The main reason for this speculation is that the tech company has booked a stage at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts (YBCA) in San Francisco for "several days in late January." Apple has used this venue to make major announcements in the past, and the speculation is that Apple is going to make a major product announcement at the end of January. The blog quoted Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster as saying, "We believe there is a 75 per cent likelihood that Apple will have an event in January and a 50 per cent chance that it will be held to launch the Apple Tablet."

Continue reading Apple Stock Higher Amid Rumors of a New Product

A New Entry into Sports Reporting: TMZ?

Haven't had enough Tiger Woods news lately? Are you absolutely obsessed with the comings and goings of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and their respective love lives? Well, the newest entrant into the world of sports reporting may keep you up to date on just that, and more. TMZ has become a major name in the world of celebrity news, and is now expanding its reach into the world of sports.

The main reason for this move is that TMZ will no longer be tied to AOL (AOL), which should make it easier for Harvey Levin to introduce a sports-related Internet site. The celeb happenings of the past year have helped to cement the validity of TMZ, but advertising sales are on pace to come in $10 million shy of a year ago. TMZ itself has evolved from a scoffed-at website that paid for tips and hints to major news stories to an "effective news-gathering operation of a certain kind" according to Time Warner (TWX). TMZ came into its own this year, with the site's popularity exploding thanks to its report that Michael Jackson passed, which came in an hour before the "most mainstream news organizations."

Continue reading A New Entry into Sports Reporting: TMZ?

Retail figures push oil lower ahead of today's inventory report

Oil is dropping today as demand concerns hit investors once more following today's dismal December retail figures.

Prices had been moving higher, but after news hit the market that December retail sales fell by 2.7%, investors got spooked, and prices are now down $0.29 a barrel to $37.49. Earlier in the session, oil had risen to as high as $39.45 on more OPEC rumors.

As the retail figures hit the market, the 2.7% drop in December sales was much worse than what analysts had been predicting we would see, with the average consensus going into today's report being that we would see a drop in December sales of around 1.2%, so the actual figures was more than twice the drop the market was looking to see.

Continue reading Retail figures push oil lower ahead of today's inventory report

How public company CEOs can squash false rumors

The SEC is trying to stop Wall Street players from spreading rumors that sink stocks, as I posted yesterday. The reason such rumors matter is because there are many companies that are unable to defend themselves from rumors. Bear Stearns comes to mind as an example. I think if someone tried to spread a rumor that Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) or Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) were heading for bankruptcy, the rumor would not get foo far.

But if a company lacks such a strong reputation, its CEO needs to be prepared to respond effectively to such rumors. And I really don't think it should be difficult to mount an effective defense. In my mind, the CEO should be able to provide credible answers to two questions:

  • Cash flow. How large are the company's short- and medium-term liabilities and how many times do the market value of its short- and medium-term assets cover these liabilities?
  • Debt default. What are the company's key loan terms and what specific assurance can the company provide that it is in compliance with these terms?

Continue reading How public company CEOs can squash false rumors

SEC hits 50 hedge funds with subpoenas in rumor probe

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that the SEC has subpoenaed 50 hedge-fund advisers as part of its probe into allegations that traders spread negative rumors to drive down the share prices of stocks they were short.

It seems especially zealous given how little the SEC has done to crack down on a multitude of other problems harming investors, like the inadequate disclosures of serious risks that have sent shares of companies like Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) tumbling.

Maybe there was some foul play at hedge funds, and maybe it's a good use of SEC resources to go after it. But it's worth noting that, throughout history, every time a bubble has burst, the short sellers who profited from its demise have been scapegoated for their foresight. The men who were at the helm of Bear Stearns (Yes, it was men. Women would never foul anything up that badly!) when it collapsed can blame rumor-spreading short sellers for causing a run on the bank. It's the same excuse that former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling invoked in his testimony before Congress.

Shame on short sellers for destroying the financials!

Yesterday I blogged, with a good degree of skepticism, about the SEC's announcement that it is cracking down on rumor-spreading fear mongers looking to profit from declines in stocks like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In one of his daily email newsletters, hedge fund manager/all-around smart guy Whitney Tilson quotes one of his friends:

Thank God someone is doing something about this. Because, as we all know, our financial regulators have done such a good job in overseeing the institutions that are suffering from this evil conspiracy. What would be even better is if the SEC, NYSE, etc. could identify and "bring to justice" those hedge funds and short-sellers that, through a vast conspiracy with the ever-compliant press, forced bank/brokerage management teams to make the trillions in bad loans that now imperil our economic system.

Exactly. Regulators did nothing to protect investors and consumers from this mess, and have sat idly by while so many companies have failed to level with investors about their problems. The reason that the rumors have such impact on the market is that many investors have concluded, correctly, that they can't rely on these firms to provide timely updates about their prospects. If BEAR STERNS COS INC (NYSE: BSC) was a victim of rumor-spreading short sellers, it was also a victim of its diminished credibility that created an opportunity for manipulation in the first place. The SEC should focus on actual problems, not rumors which, last time I checked, have always been part of the market.

SEC looks to crack down on rumors

In a press release issued on Sunday -- presumably meant to be a warning to traders before the opening bell on Monday -- the SEC announced that "the SEC and other securities regulators will immediately conduct examinations aimed at the prevention of the intentional spread of false information intended to manipulate securities prices."

Cash-bleeding train wrecks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) have complained that rumor-mongering has damaged investors by causing a precipitous slide in their stock prices. Bear Stearns executives have essentially blamed short-sellers for the company collapse which is, interestingly, the same argument made by Enron's former head honchos. Just saying.

I don't doubt that there's a fair amount of hanky panky on the part of short-sellers looking to profit from declines in share price, but I think that massive writedowns and a lack of transparency at these companies have been larger factors. As DealBreaker recently noted, "if a company can be brought down by the corporate equivalent of 7th grade girls passing notes in class, perhaps it doesn't deserve to exist anyway."

The Wall Street Journal notes (subscription required) that "The need for such a move by the SEC took on new urgency after a brutal week in the U.S. stock market, where major financial firms such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were battered as rumors about everything from government bailouts to possible mergers flew across Wall Street."

This just in: Fed to rescue Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. Apparently those mean short-selling trash-talkers were onto something.

What exactly is a takeover rumor? Be skeptical

MGL Asset Management Group's press release purporting to offer $7.25 per share for Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE: KKD) was pretty quickly debunked as illegitimate and, very probably, an effort to hype the stock for a quick buck. Jon Ogg reported on the mysterious offer on our sister site, BloggingBuyouts.

The stock jumped on the news of the offer, but quickly gave up all the gains and then some after media and analyst reports dismissed the offer. But anyone who jumped on the stock at the sight of the press release got burned.

How can you prevent this from happening to you? A good rule of thumb: When you're looking for information on material developments, look to the SEC filings. The offer was made solely through a press release -- something that anyone with a few hundred bucks to pay the wire fee could send into the hands of millions of investors in a few minutes. Until you see something about the "offer" in the SEC's Edgar Database, it should be regarded as a rumor. I wrote about a similarly non-materializing offer at Trans World Entertainment (NASDAQ: TWMC) back in November.

Another solution is to leave the "in-play" trading to the pros -- it's all about information and you're unlikely to have an edge. If you see a news item that a company has received an offer, don't jump in.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 11, 2012: 02:40 AM

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