Analyst Upgrades

• Walgreen (WAG) and Triumph Group (TGI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Focus Media (FMCN) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Home Depot (HD) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Arbitron (ARB) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Waddell & Reed (WDR) and Legg Mason (LM) to overweight from equal weight, and Janus Capital (JNS) to overweight from underweight, at Barclays.
• Central Euro Media (CETV) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• GenOn Energy (GEN) and Ntelos (NTLS) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Cooper Tire (CTB) to buy from neutral and Goodyear Tire (GT) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Black Friday has come and gone and the holiday shopping season is off and running. In addition to keeping on eye on how retailers are doing, there will be plenty of other economic data for analysts and investors to peruse on this week.

• Monday: Chicago Fed's Midwest Manufacturing Index
• Tuesday: Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index for Q3, Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

Three of Canada's big five banks reported quarterly results last week. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's (CM) profit surged, topping consensus estimates. However, Royal Bank of Canada (RY) missed estimates for the fourth straight time. And though Bank of Montreal's (BMO) net income grew, it too fell short of expectations.

So what does that do for expectations for Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) and Toronto-Dominion (TD), which are scheduled to report this week?

Most of the S&P 500 companies have already reported earnings results for the most recent quarter. But scheduled to release their results this week are Medtronic (MDT) and Novell (NOVL), which analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to post earnings per share (EPS) about same as last year, as well as JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Patterson Companies (PDCO) and Tiffany & Co. (TIF), for which analysts foresee year-over-year earnings growth. Of these, the expectations are highest for Tiffany.

During the three months that ended in July, Tiffany launched an iPhone app and increased its quarterly dividend. Analysts expect the New York-based specialty retailer to report that earnings per share came to 53 cents, a 26.4% increase from a year earlier. Second-quarter revenue is expected to have grown 12.8% to $690.8 million. So far, analysts predict full-year earnings of $2.61 per share (+22.9%) on $3.0 billion (+11.8%) in revenue. Earnings results topped consensus estimates in four of the past five quarters, by 11 cents per share in the first quarter.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Republic Services (RSG) to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $34 from $32. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded MeadWestvaco (MWV) to buy from hold due to valuation and keeps a $29 price target for shares.
• UBS upgraded Symantec (SYMC) to buy from neutral.
• Lloyds Banking (LYG) upgraded to add from neutral at WestLB.
• Ternium (TX) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

"Canada right now boasts one of the world's most compelling targets for investors' hard-earned money," says Peter Krauth.

The contributing editor to Money Morning reviews three ways to play Canada: CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC), the Royal Bank of Canada (RY), and energy distribution and pipeline operator Enbridge (ENB).

"If the safety of a nation's banks is an indication of its economic well being, then Canada gets a clean bill of health, without the need for stress tests.

Analyst Upgrades

• Canaccord believes growth in DigitalGlobe's (DGI) commercial business will be a catalyst for shares. The firm upgraded shares to buy from hold and has a $38 price target on the stock.
• Standpoint upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to accumulate from hold based on valuation. The firm has a $47 target on the stock.
• Morgan Keegan upgraded Open Text (OTEX) to outperform from market perform based on the company's strong FY2011 EPS outlook.
• Devon Energy (DVN) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Magna (MGA) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• EnCana (ECA) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.

Both Walmart (WMT) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) reported strong quarterly results last week, suggesting that discount retailers are still doing well even as the economy seems to be coming around. This week, Costco (COST) and Big Lots (BIG) take their turns in the earnings spotlight, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect a strong showing from them as well.

And we'll round out this preview of the coming week with a look at expectations for AutoZone (AZO), Canada's big banks, and Trina Solar (TSL).

The Federal Reserve's next Beige Book report is scheduled to be released this week. This report is a compilation of anecdotal information on current economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts, and it is released eight times a year. The data comes from interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The previous report, released in January, showed some improvement in most districts and growth in consumer spending over the holiday period, though unemployment remained high. The December report showed modest improvement in eight of the districts.

Retailers were in the earnings spotlight last week and for the most part made a strong showing of it. Even as the earnings season winds down, some more retailers are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

It's been reported that Canadian banks have fared better than their U.S. and European counterparts recently. The Bank of Montreal (BMO) did report strong fourth-quarter results last week. This week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect competitor Royal Bank of Canada (RY) to post modest earnings growth as well, while Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) are expected to post earnings declines.

Analysts are looking for $0.98 per share (+6.1%) earnings from RBC, $1.25 per share (-7.4%) from Toronto Dominion and $1.36 per share (-21.8%) from Canadian Imperial. The long-term EPS growth forecast for these three banks is for ranges from 10% and 12%, which is in the same ballpark as U.S. rivals Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC). Earnings multiples for these Canadian banks are 10x to 12x, but only Toronto Dominion has a First Call consensus recommendation of buy. The Motley Fool, though, recently commented on Royal Bank's steady income and reliability. All three banks are trading near their 52-week highs, and shares of all are up well more than 100% since March lows.

Canadian banks are scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight this week, with third-quarter reports coming from Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). While Canadian banks on the whole held up better than their U.S. counterparts during the financial crisis, these five are expected to report that their earnings are still declining in the most recent quarter.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for EPS for these banks to have fallen from 15% to 25% from a year ago. Their long-term EPS growth forecast is for between 10% and 12%, which is in the same range as U.S. rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), but better than Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C). Earnings multiples for these Canadian banks are 10x to 12x, but none of them have a First Call consensus recommendation is to buy. The Motley Fool, though, considers TD as a value stock and RY a stock poised to pop. All of them are trading much closer to their 52-week highs than lows, and shares of all are up more than 100% since March lows.

After the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, the earnings spotlight turns to Canadian banks: Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) are all scheduled to report their second-quarter results.

While banks north of the border of generally have held up better than their U.S. counterparts, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the four listed above to report that earnings declined between 20% and 30% since the same period of last year. All four have P/E ratios around 10, and they are paying dividends. Shares of all four have surged 50% to 83% in the past three months, but are still 26% to 38% lower than a year ago.

The banking crisis is a nasty mess throughout most of the U.S. and Europe. Just recently Lloyds Banking Group PLC (NYSE: LYG) ceded 75% of its assets to the government of Britain, and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) closed at $1.05 on Monday. Let's not forget JP Morgan Chase & Company (NYSE: JPM) has $87.7 trillion worth of outstanding OTC contracts as of September 30. JPM will not disclose how much of this is toxic.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the parade of earnings declines to continue into the final week of February, with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. (NYSE: MSO), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M), DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc. (NYSE: DWA), Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Royal Bank Of Canada (NYSE: RY), Del Monte Foods Co. (NASDAQ: DLM), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH), and H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) all expected to post lower earnings for the most recent quarter. Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP), Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) are expect to have swung to a loss.

Last week, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), one of Canada's oldest and largest banks, reported growth in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. But it may be the only one that does, as at least two of the Canadian banks scheduled to report fourth-quarter numbers this week have already released preliminary results that warn of lower earnings due to debt write-downs and trading losses.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) to post earnings 42.6% lower than a year ago, or $1.28 per share. CIBC beat estimates by a penny in the third quarter, but missed by a penny in the period before that. The bank faces a class-action lawsuit related to investments in collateralized debt obligations consisting of U.S. subprime mortgages. Shares have climbed 20.7% from a recent 52-week low of $39.52, but are down 37.8% in the past three months.

Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) are expected to report more modest earnings declines of $1.01 per share, $0.73 per share, and $0.83 per share, respectively. All three Toronto-based banks topped estimates in the third quarter. Toronto Dominion and RBC have recently announced plans to offer shares in order to raise capital. Toronto Dominion and Scotiabank have been trading near 52-week lows, and their share prices are down around 39% in the past three months. But only Toronto Dominion has a consensus buy recommendation from analysts.