Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

"Our Buyback Premium Portfolio is beating the S&P 500 by more than 65% since its inception in 2000; the portfolio is up 54.48% vs. a decline of 10.56% in the S&P 500 over the same time frame," notes buyback specialist David Fried.

The editor of The Buyback Letter explains, "Here's a look at three new additions to this portfolio: Forest Labs (FRX), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Ryder System (R).

"Forest Labs is an international pharmaceutical manufacturer and marketer perhaps best known for its top selling product, anti-depression drug Lexapro, which sold $587 million in its most recent quarter.

Analyst Upgrades

• Ryder (R) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• HCP (HCP) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Hertz Global (HTZ) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Lincoln National (LNC) to buy from neutral and T. Rowe Price (TROW) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Protective Life (PL) and Janus Capital (JNS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• National Instruments (NATI) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Team Health (TMH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: GFI Group, Wells Fargo and Cirrus Logic were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Goldman downgraded GFI Group Inc (NASDAQ: GFIG) to Neutral from Buy following the company's announcement that credit chief, Donal Fewer, left the company to go to a rival firm and that about two dozen brokers may defect to follow him.
• Oppenheimer cut Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) to Underperform from Perform as they believe the company is under-reserved by at least $4.5B and that there is significant room for multiple contraction.
• Cirrus Logic Inc (NASDAQ: CRUS) was downgraded at Jefferies to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is no longer favorable at current levels.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Baird cut Ryder System Inc (NYSE: R) to Neutral from Outperform.
• Caterpillar Incorporated (NYSE: CAT) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia and to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
• Goldman removed Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) from its Conviction Buy List.

Ryder System (NYSE: R) shares are trading higher after the company announced it would acquire the assets of Miami-based truck leasing company Gator Leasing Inc. Ryder will get Gator Leasing's truck fleet of about 2,300 trucks and about 300 contract customers. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on R.

After hitting a one-year high of $65.69 in April, the stock hit a one-year low of $38.95 in November. R opened this morning at $61.04. So far today the stock has hit a low of $60.43 and a high of $62.58. As of 3:15, R is trading at $62.14, up 1.53 (2.5%). The chart for R is bullish but slightly deteriorating while S&P gives R a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, if one were to invest in it, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverages nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just five weeks as long as R is above $55 at May expiration. Ryder would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Ryder System (NYSE: R) today announced it is dropping its forecast for third-quarter earnings per share from $1.20-$1.23 to $1.12-$1.14. The company also revealed that third-quarter results will be impacted by a $10 million sale of property, more than offset by a $12 million charge for restructuring, the benefits of which won't be realized until 2008. Its end-of-year projections are now for EPS of $4.10-$4.15, down from previous expectations of $4.30-$4.35, but still above 2006 figures.

Ryder blames general softening of demand beyond the housing sector for declining revenue in its Fleet Management Solutions segment, which accounts for about 60% of its revenue. The company has a fleet of more than 140,000 vehicles and employs almost 30,000 people.

One area to keep an eye on with Ryder is its Supply Chain Solutions sector, which accounts for 32% of revenue. This sector is closely tied to the automobile industry -- in fact, GM (NYSE: GM) accounted for 40% of Ryder's SCS revenue in 2006. Slack times at GM could show up on Ryder's bottom line.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: DaimlerChrysler (DCX), Omniture (OMTR), Convergys (CVG), Expedia (EXPE) and Baidu.com (BIDU) were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• WestLB upgraded shares of DaimlerChrysler (NYSE: DCX) to Buy from Add after the company raised the profit margin forecast for its Mercedes unit.

• Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) was upgraded by Piper Jaffray to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's strong revenue momentum and expanding margins.

• Wedbush upgraded Convergys (NYSE: CVG) to Hold from Sell on valuation.

• Citigroup raised shares of Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) and Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) to Buy from Hold on valuation...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Bear Stearns upgraded shares of Ryder System (NYSE: R) to Outperform from Underperform.

• Lehman raised EnCana Corp (NYSE: ECA) to Equal Weight from Underweight.

• USG Corp (NYSE: USG) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at Buckingham.

• Morgan Keegan upgraded shares of Panera Bread (NASDAQ: PNRA) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Citigroup raised Cullen/Frost Bankers (NYSE: CFR) to Hold from Sell.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).