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Why Salesforce.com isn't done after a 44% run

While I'm watching the Green Bay Packers poised for a continued run of 7-1 (they haven't won 8 straight since Vince Lombardi) and scouring through weekend research, I'm impressed by the recent strength in Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM). But what I think is even more interesting is that I don't think this puppy is done going up.

Salesforce provides Software as a Service (SaaS), hosted software that runs sales teams for thousands of companies. Instead of buying the software (like shelling out $300+ for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Office), Salesforce "rents" the software via a subscription model. Salesforce has seen strong take-up of their service, with growth of 60% in 2007 and 58% in 2006. Even bullish analysts have projected subscription growth slowing down significantly over the next two years. Growth is definitely slowing -- but it's not going away. Look for more possible upside here.

Margins should also stand to benefit. As growth stabilizes, business will shift from first-time customers to renewals. Renewals are typically higher margin than first sales, given the lower associated sales cost.

High-flying tech companies eventually face slowing growth, but it generally doesn't happen overnight. For now, it looks like CRM has some more powder in its keg.

Zack Miller is the lead equity analyst for America Israel Investment Associates, LLC., the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. He holds no position in CRM as of 11/04/07.

Analyst initiations 6-08-07: Restaurants, CBG and JLL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Restaurants, CB Richard Ellis Group Inc (NYSE: CBG) and Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (NYSE: JLL) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Deutsche Bank initiated shares of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD) and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE: YUM) with Buy ratings and a $61 target and $76 target, respectively, and shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE: CMG) with Hold ratings an a $54 target and $83 target, respectively.
  • Wachovia initiated shares of CB Richard Ellis with an Outperform rating, as it views CBG as a compelling investment opportunity giving its leading position in the top real estate markets and breadth of services.
  • Wachovia also initiated shares of Jones Lang LaSalle with an Outperform rating, as it expects JLL to benefit from international services given the increasing flow of real estate dollars across boarders and to less well developed regions of the globe.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst initiations 5-22-07: BDK, CRM, NWACQ and RNOW

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Salesforce.com, Inc (CRM), Black & Decker Corp (BDK), GenVec, Inc (GNVC) and RightNow Technologies (RNOW) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • With customers wanting an alternative to Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is making an attempt to be that alternative. It is rumored that management is in talks with Google (GOOG) about the two companies working together, a move that could include offering Google Apps via the AppExchange and integrating more closely those apps with Salesforce.com. Baird initiated shares of Salesforce.com with a Neutral rating and $49 target.
  • Banc of America sees major headwinds from declining construction and slower consumer spending on housing and started shares of Black & Decker Corp (NYSE: BDK) with a Sell rating and $85 target.
  • Merriman sees upside from strong mid- and late-stage clinical programs, key collaborations and potential for revenue generation, starting shares of GenVec (NASDAQ: GNVC) with a Buy rating.
  • Baird finds Rightnow Technology (NASDAQ: RNOW) to be well-positioned within the customer service segment of the CRM market with above average L-T prospects and views the recent uncertainty as a buying opportunity. Baird started shares of RightNow with an Outperform rating and $19 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Option update 5-18-07: IGT, CRM up on takeover chatter

International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) implied volatility and call volume Jumps on Chatter.
  • IGT specializes in the design, manufacturer and marketing of computerized gaming equipment. IGT is recently up $1.28 to $39.18 on unconfirmed takeover chatter.
  • IGT call option volume of 12,038 contracts compares to put volume of 576 contracts. IGT June option implied volatility of 34 is above its 26-week average of according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) option volume heavy; volatility flat on Speculative chatter.
  • CRM, an on demand customer relationship management applications company, is recently up $0.76 to $43.83 on take over speculation.
  • CRM reported first quarter revenue of $162 million yesterday. GROW has a Buy rating on CRM.
  • CRM June option implied volatility of 40 is below its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.
Option volume leaders today are: Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Elan Corp. (NYSE: ELN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) and U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Cramer dead wrong on Salesforce.com

Last evening, Jim Cramer had a brief conversation with Marc Benioff, the Chairman and CEO of Salesforce.com (NASDAQ: CRM). Cramer has been a skeptic of Salesforce.com's success and sustainability in the marketplace. He's dead wrong.

Cramer doesn't get the company's business model or understand its success.

Benioff was with Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) early in his career and learned the ropes there. He found that customers were frustrated because it took millions of dollars and 12 to 18 months to install new software and to train employees how to use it. Organizations were impatient with huge purchases taking too long to yield returns and improved functionality.

Salesforce.com is different. Its lead product is a CRM program, which stands for customer relationship manager. CRM, also Salesforce.com's ticker, allows for companies to track customer progress, customer happiness and customer status. The Salesforce.com programs are sold on a user-by-user basis, install very easily and are hosted at Salesforce.com's data center. There is no tying up of customers' databases. All is secured and backed up.

Benioff, in other words, understood the customer's needs and wishes. There are now several other business applications that Salesforce.com sells to its customers.

Continue reading Cramer dead wrong on Salesforce.com

The new young bulls of technology: Who will be the Microsoft of the 21st century?

During the 1990's and early 2000's, the world witnessed a technology boom as had never before been experienced. Small, innovative companies founded by creative, visionary entrepreneurs became mega-billion dollar corporations with multi-billion dollar market capitalizations. The stories came at us like glorious movie scripts: the hometown nerd rises to super stardom: Bill Gates, Paul Allen, Michael Dell, Larry Ellison, John Chambers and many more newly-crowned titans were appearing in the society pages, as well as the business pages. Technologies were created that simplified our daily lives and enhanced productivity to levels never before thought of. Almost every human being was benefited by new, affordable technologies. Cars, TVs, appliances, PCs, cell phones,and several other products became fun, simple to use and affordable.

Along the way, massive fortunes were made by founders, employees, mutual funds and individual shareholders. Wall Street analysts also gained rock start status--maybe it was being in the right place at the right time.

Then came the nuclear winter for technology in late 2000-2001. Corporations and governments found themselves in the position of assessing what they bought and needing to monetize all these new technology assets. New spending came to near standstill. All of the investment geniuses who made the "easy" money were now facing losses and scrambling for the exits. Investing went back to the rules and principles that we all learned as beginners again.

No question about it: Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Dell, IBM, Hewlett-Packard Compaq, Intel and others are great American corporations. They collectively represent a few trillion dollars worth of market cap and multiple billions of annual profits. However, each titan of the 80's and 90's is facing its own issues of trying to re-grow the revenue and earnings base -- trying to recapture the magical secret sauce -- reminiscent of the older baseball pitcher who has lost 4-5 mph off his fastball and is trying to make it work with pitch location and craftiness.

But, investors are looking at the new, emerging group of companies that could dominate this decade and the next.

Continue reading The new young bulls of technology: Who will be the Microsoft of the 21st century?

Analyst initiations 4-11-07: AKAM, CRM, INFY and SAPE initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Salesforce.com, Inc (CRM), B&G Foods, Inc (BGF), Akamai Technologies, Inc (AKAM), Infosys Technologies Ltd (INFY) and Sapient Corp (SAPE) were today's more notable initiations:
  • Bernstein started Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE: CRM) with an Outperform rating and $58 target. The firm believes CRM has the highest growth potential for revenues through 2012.
  • Credit Suisse initiated B&G Foods Inc (NYSE: BGF) with an Underperform rating and $20 target.
  • Akamai Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: AKAM) was initiated with a Buy rating and $68 target at Citigroup. The firm believes the recent pullback provides an attractive entry point and has confidence in AKAM's ability to deliver sustainable revenue growth of 35%-45% over the next few years.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • CIBC started Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI) with a Sector Outperformer rating and $68 target.
  • Wedbush initiated shares of Big Lots, Inc (NYSE: BIG) with a Hold rating and $30 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Salesforce.com knows Wall Street's language

salesforce

Recently, the stock of salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE:CRM) has been surging. In fact, it is getting close to its $42.99 52-week high.

The market cap is about $4.56 billion.

Today, the company's mega conference – Dreamforce – started. And, as expected, salesforce.com has some important announcements. After all, in last year's conference, the company announced its AppExchange service, which has been a wild success.

Well, as for this year's conference, it looks like salesforce.com has another standout announcement; that is, the company is introducing its own programming language.

Of course, it's not like the old computer languages – such as Pascal, COBOL or Microsoft's Visual Basic. Rather, salesforce.com has a language for Web services.

Continue reading Salesforce.com knows Wall Street's language

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 10:23 AM

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