It's super Thursday, when same-store sales from many of the nation's retailers hit the Street, and the outlook for the holiday-shopping season is looking less than cheerful.

Weakness in the housing sector, high prices at the pumps, and unseasonably warm weather kept consumers' wallets on a tight leash in October. Early estimates from the International Council of Shopping Centers/UBS indicate that overall U.S. same-store sales in October rose about 2%, missing analysts' previous growth target of 2.5%. Data from Thomson Financial indicates that 18 retailers have missed expectations, while 10 have exceeded.

Ken Perkins, president of research company RetailMetrics, told The New York Times that "Overall, the sales trend continues to slow . . . I think the consumer is certainly feeling the [economic] pressure heading into the holidays."

Fast-food king McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) continues to lure people under the golden arches, with fresh items and an expanded breakfast menu. In October, same-store sales rose by 6.9%, as the restaurateur posted gains across all regions. In the U.S., comparable-store sales were 5.4% higher. Europe saw a 6.4% jump in sales gains, and sales in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa surged 9.4% during the month.

An article in this morning's Wall Street Journal attributed the surging sales to new products (such as the chicken "snack wrap"), additional breakfast items (offered in an expanded block of time), and a popular value menu, perfect for consumers getting squeezed at the fuel pumps.

Across the board, total sales were 14.2% higher during the month, or up 8.2% excluding fluctuations from foreign exchange rates.

In pre-market action, MCD shares are showing a 1.4% gain. At yesterday's close, the stock was just 2.6% shy of a new 52-week high, so a strong rally today could boost the equity into new-high territory for the year.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) announced that global same-store sales rose 8.1% in August. With 36,000 stores worldwide and annual sales of well over $21 billion, the growth rate is extraordinary. The company's shares are up 2% in premarket trading and the stock could easily break its 52-week high of $53.22.

A food retailer this large growing this fast is likely to be eating someone else's lunch. Shares in Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) and Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) have lagged McDonald's so Wall Street may suspect that their same-store sales will not be as robust.

McDonald's has been clever, and it seems odd that other food and coffee retailers have not matched some of its moves. Many of its stores are open 24-hours. Almost all in the U.S. open at 5 a.m. to catch the early breakfast crowd. The majority of Starbucks open at 6 a.m.

Investors know that there is only so much air in any room. If McDonald's can keep increasing its sales at a rate faster than the competition, it is likely taking share and cutting into revenues at other companies.

There is no way for the likes of Starbucks to shake this perception without showing that its same-store sales can move up close to 10%.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Eight days ago, Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) began selling the new CD from former Beatle Paul McCartney titled Memory Almost Full. Currently, the CD is only available from Starbucks stores in all 27 countries and on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). The CD may be the spark that Starbucks needs to get its stock going, as it is selling extraordinarily well and may lift Starbucks' June same-store sales.

Starbucks is a long-term, excellent growth story. The company currently operates almost 12,000 stores, with a stated corporate goal of growing to over 40,000 units in the next decade. This year so far has been a frustrating one for Starbucks as its stock has traded as high as $36, but is sitting at its low point right now at $27.74.

Update June 13, 2007, 4:36 p.m.: "First-week sales of 160,541 copies marked a 33% improvement over those for Flaming Pie."

The first quarter earnings for Starbucks came in right at consensus expectations: no upside surprise. The market reacted with a rather large yawn and the stock has been trading sideways since. The Paul McCartney CD may be the catalyst necessary to get the stock and the same store sales popping in sync.

Last week on BloggingStocks, I proposed that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) "take a one-year break from building more stores, and focus on getting the current stores back on track. One lost year of expansion is not much in the long-run and, if it can help to bolster existing stores, it's a wise investment indeed."

While that was certainly a far-fetched idea, Wal-Mart is planning to cut back on the opening of new supercenters this year by 25, and refocus its energy on improving existing locations. The company will build 190-200 new supercenters this year and, in future years, plans to drop that number to around 170.

The company will be using the savings from reduced capital expenditures to ramp up its buyback program, and management's attention will shift toward improving efficiency and same-store sales, which have been thoroughly unspectacular of late.

Shareholders loved the idea, sending the shares up nearly 4% on the news. I think it makes a lot of sense as well. By focusing on improving existing stores for now, future stores will be stronger. Congratulations to Wal-Mart management for resisting the urge to grow as rapidly as possible, which so many other companies have succumbed to. By slowing up a bit, shareholders will reap vastly greater rewards in the long run.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) continues to get slammed from the media and retail critics as not changing and reacting fast enough to stay ahead of the retail discount crowd these days. Sure, the company is making record amounts of revenues (profit margin is another matter), but the company's monthly same-store sales stats and quarterly results aren't comparing to established expectations, nor are they outshining results from competitor Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT).

It's hard to measure Wal-Mart against any other retailer just based on its sheer size, merchandising prowess, and customer availability (supercenters seem to be everywhere these days), but the company has clearly made some strategic errors of late that have impacted results. While I'm not sure which traffic drivers Wal-Mart plans on to get feet in the door (then selling as much as possible to that captive audience), its recent admission of apparel planning mistakes seems to underscore the challenges the world's largest retailer has in trying to get its shine back.

While sales in the U.S. continue to get a collective "yawn" from market pundits and journalists, the company's about-face move in international retail seems to be moving rather fast as the company wants to reap more sales and margin from those markets than from the U.S. market (which takes time investors are not willing to give, it seems). Wal-Mart's recent partnerships with China's Trust-Mart and India's Bharti state to the world that Wal-Mart is serious about its international plans, even in the face of market withdrawals in Germany and South Korea in 2006. The rumor that Wal-Mart may be looking to acquire or take a stake in Indian logistics and retail distribution company Radhakrishna Foodland says that Wal-Mart is placing a pretty good deal of importance into rapidly-expanding markets (India is at the top of that list with China).

This morning, fast-food behemoth McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) reported that its same-store sales spiked 4.8% worldwide in April. Helping drive the sales growth last month, according to company officials, were the kid-friendly Happy Meal, breakfast items, and the new "Snack Wrap" menu offering.

On U.S. soil, same-store sales rose 3.5%. The figures rose 3.5% in Europe and surged 10.3% in the Asia/Pacific, Middle East, and Africa regions (this ties in with Zac's posting yesterday about the expanding waistlines among Japanese women). Total sales rose 9.6% across the globe and 4.2% in the U.S.

With the exception of its fries, and the Big Mac I crave about once every 18 months, McDonald's has never been my favorite, but it's inarguably a force to be reckoned with. And amid complaints from Morgan Spurlock and countless others, MCD has done its part to fight obesity - finding an oil free of trans fats for its french fries, for one, and introducing healthier menu options, such as veggie burgers and better salads.

The company's stock is also an exquisite performer. MCD has been trending higher since early 2003, more than quadrupling in value during the past four years. This month, the stock has eked above its November 1999 peak to peg a new all-time high.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

A couple of months ago, I mentioned that while a Coach (NYSE: COH) handbag can be quite the splurge, shares of the luxury-goods retailer could potentially be a prudent investment. Since this posting, the stock has gained nearly 15%, hitting a new all-time high in Monday's session.

This morning, the company said its third-quarter net income surged 38 percent, to $150 million, or 40 cents per share. Revenue increased 30 percent to $625.3 million. Both of these figures surpassed analysts' expectations of 38 cents per share and $617.6 million, respectively.

Peeking in on sales, direct-to-consumer sales rose 29 percent to $481 million, while same-store sales expanded 20 percent. The newly introduced Coach fragrance accounted for three percent of retail sales during the latest reporting period. No word on what percentage of COH sales came from various car trunks in Manhattan.

Other than the occasional (okay, fairly frequent) lunchtime or late-night trek to Taco Bell -- a unit of Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) -- I'm generally not a huge fan of chain restaurants. Most are very good at what they do, but when I'm dining out with friends or family, I typically prefer something off the beaten path.

One exception to this, however, is the upscale Asian dining spot P.F. Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB). If I may suggest, the steamed dumplings and garlic noodles border on culinary perfection.

PFCB shouldn't need much of a PR blitz from me, however; the waits are always long, any day of the week, and the reviews are generally of the rave variety. And yet, March same-store sales dropped 3.0% at the eatery's benchmark China Bistro locations and edged 0.5% higher at its Pei Wei restaurants. For the quarter, China Bistro same-store sales dropped 2.5% while Pei Wei sales rose 0.5%. Total revenue for the quarter ended April 1 rose to $264.4 million, up 15.6% from year-earlier levels but below analysts' expectations of $268.2 million.

On the heels of this news, PFCB shares have dropped more than 5%, dipping back below their 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Earnings season is winding down, which means the retailing sector takes center stage in the reporting confessional. At 8:00 a.m., Federated Department Stores Inc. (NYSE:FD) reported fourth quarter financial results: The firm's fourth-quarter sales slipped 4.3% to $9.16 billion, while same-store sales rose 6.1%. Earnings, excluding items, hit $1.66 per share, ahead of consensus analysts' expectations of $1.58 per share.

The report was accompanied by a slew of announcements:

• The company is planning to change its name to "Macy's Group," citing that close to 90% of company sales come from the Macy's Brand. Don't worry about those cute little brown bags, though; FD assures that the Bloomingdale's chain remains a valuable part of the company. Shareholders will vote on the change on May 18. If approved, it will take effect on June 1.
  
• FD will buy back up to 18% of its outstanding shares, or up to an additional $4 billion worth of stock.
  
• The firm declared a regular quarterly dividend of 12.75 cents per share, payable April 2, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 15.
  

Looking ahead to the future, the retailer targets sales of $27.1 billion to $27.6 billion in fiscal year 2007, with full-year earnings expected in a range of $2.45 to $2.60. For the first quarter, FD sees per-share earnings of 15 to 20 cents.

FD shares are slipping over 2% in pre-market trading as of 8:37 a.m.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) now says that same-store sales may be up "zero" in November. Very grim.

Wal-Mart has indicated that it is promoting new products and dropping prices. It does not seem that the company thinks it will work.

The company indicated that hurricanes from last year may have helped store sales for that period. Customers bought goods to restock their homes. Fuzzy math.

The figures are a further indication that Wal-Mart may simply have too many stores in the U.S. The company may have to look at shutting underperforming stores to both cut its cost base and improve same-store growth.

Whatever the solution, Wal-Mart may no longer be a growth stock.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

For many investors, putting money in Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is like investing in America. Wal-Mart stands for everything that your stereotypical middle American does; sprawling properties, gigantic packages of Suave(TM) and Snickers(TM) and Snoop Dogg (TM, probably). Wal-Mart is to retail what the Hummer is to automobiles. Big, resource-hungry, and not entirely respectful of the little guy. And along with America, Wal-Mart seemed like the never-ending growth story. Sometimes I thought the Waltons' place in the billionaires' top 10 would never be equalled.

But some days, like today, the news seems to go a different way. Wal-Mart, emperor of homogenization, king of the price cut, sultan of squashing its competitors, posted a teensy 0.5% same-store sales growth in October. There's talk that the retailer might even (yikes! double yikes!) post so-called "negative growth" a.k.a. shrinking in the months to come.

Where Wall Street comes from, negative growth is a synonym for "run for the hills." From whence cometh our help, Americans?

In my opinion, our help cometh from Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT).

Wal-Mart loves to cut costs. They have decided to use more part-time employees, in all probability to save costs of full-time worker benefits.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) might want to take another approach though. With same-store sales figures revised down for September, it would appear that at 1.3% same-store growth, the company's U.S. operations are now growing less than the rate of inflation.

Wal-Mart has 3,800 stores in the U.S. Even with the company's effort to spiff up its offerings with more expensive clothing and electronics, the plan does not seem to be working.

A moderation in same-store sales is sometimes a sign that a retailer has too many stores or that some of the stores are too close to one another. Wal-Mart may have reached that point of saturation, at least in some regions. Same-store sales were not just poor in September. They have been below Target Corp.'s (NYSE: TGT) figures and that trend continues. To compare, Target's same-store sales rose 6.7% in September.

Shutting a few dozen stores may be the only solution to Wal-Mart's same-store sales growth problem.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

In a sign that the world's largest retailer expects to see slowing sales this fall, Wal-Mart lowered its September same-store sales forecasts. In addition to the August 1.8% same-store sale growth given just yesterday, what lies ahead?

Wal-Mart, considered to be a huge barometer of consumer spending, can cause entire market swings when it even sighs, and lowering a current-month sale-store sales forecast can send ripples throughout the national averages. We've all seen it before if we were paying attention; I know I was.

Is the American economy -- and more even, economic growth -- predicted by Wal-Mart's numbers on a monthly and even weekly basis? Many would argue yes, and there are equal opinions on the other side of this answer as well.

It's true that Wal-Mart, by virtue of its size, is a very decent indicator of the growth (or stagnation) of the American economy -- nothing new here. But, as Wal-Mart continues to grow, it may even become a larger indicator of economic spending patterns or slowdowns that could be used to actually guide some of the marketplace, which is based on speculation more than fundamentals if you ask me.

During the third quarter of the year, Wal-Mart's stock went from $48.91 to $49.32, or 1.1%. In an unusual show of solidarity with WMT's investors, same-store sales rose only 1.8% in September. The company's customers must have called its investors on the phone.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) had all kinds of reasons why its store sales were not more robust. Comparisons with Katrina-related events were at the top of the list. But, the company had said that same-store figures would be up as much as 3%, so the news was not good.

The unavoidable truth for Wal-Mart is that sales in the US are, if the months are evened out, slowing sharply. The company is just too big with too many stores. The easy share is not longer there for the taking.

As investors combine the news in the US with the sale of Wal-Mart units in South Korea and Germany, the evidence is mounting that China has become an absolutely critical part of the company's ability to grow.