The bulls got to lead the first day of the quarter, although we would note that if today was the norm that trading volatility isn't slowing down regardless of the direction. Oil rose again toward session highs on tensions and the usual myriad of reasons we cite for oil rising (yes, it's that routine). Here are today's unofficial closing levels:
We actually saw many financial sector upgrades from research firms today, which sent many of the corresponding shares higher in what feels like a "for once" statement. We would caution that later in the day an analyst report did note other banks would need more capital (again).
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Edison International, Animal Health International and SanDisk were today's noteworthy initiations:
RBC Capital initiated Edison International (NYSE: EIX) with an Outperform rating and $64 target citing strong rate base growth and the favorable environment at Southern California Edison.
Piper assumed coverage of Animal Health International (NASDAQ: AHII) with a Buy rating and $10 target, as they believe the current valuation is attractive from long-term investors.
Pacific Crest started SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) with a Sector Perform rating and believes the valuation is too high following the recent strength as product margins are trending down.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Sandler initiated Heritage Commerce (NASDAQ: HTBK) with a Hold rating and $16 target.
Burger King (NYSE: BKC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $34 target at Piper.
RBC Capital assumed U.S. Geothermal (AMEX: HTM) with an Outperform rating and $4 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: U.S. semiconductors, Teekay Offshore and Oplink Communications were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman upgraded the U.S. Semiconductor Sector, including Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Attractive from Neutral. The firm believes semi fundamentals are poised to improve in 2H08 and that valuations are reasonable.
Wachovia upgraded Teekay Offshore (NYSE: TOO) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and increased distribution growth outlook following the acquisition of an additional 25% ownership interest in Teekay Offshore Operating, L.P.
Merriman upgraded shares of Oplink Communications (NASDAQ: OPLK) to Buy from Neutral as it believes the company is an attractive takeover target following the Finisar (NASDAQ: FNSR) and Optium (NASDAQ: OPTM) merger, given its low-cost Chinese manufacturing capacity and attractive $140M cash balance.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to its Conviction Buy List.
William Blair raised Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG) to Outperform from Market Perform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Department store sector, SanDisk and CNET Networks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the department store sector to Neutral from Attractive after raising its 2008 oil forecast to $149 from $115, as it believes higher gas prices will impact consumer discretionary spend and sentiment. Goldman downgraded JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Neutral and also removed Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) from its Conviction Buy List.
JMP Securities downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Underperform from Market Perform based on increased competition in NAND, a potential decline in royalty income, valuation, and lack of catalysts from flash-based solid state drives.
CNET Networks (NASDAQ: CNET) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America following the tender offer from CBS (NYSE: CBS).
After hitting a one-year high of $59.75 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $19.54 earlier this month. SNDK opened this morning at $21.65. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.61 and a high of $22.74. As of 1:15, SNDK is trading at $22.69, up $1.43 (6.7%). The chart for SNDK looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just 7 weeks as long as SNDK is above $17.50 at May expiration. SanDisk would have to fall by more than 22% before we would start to lose money.
NDK hasn't been below $19 at all in the past year and has shown support around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late April) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock looks to be forming right around $20, where the chart is flattening out. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SNDK.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) came out Monday night and warned of lower margins, and while the stock was down in after-hours trading, one might actually make the argument that this might not be such bad news for its core operations. It's just hard to be too much like Dr. Pangloss in what looks, feels, and even smells more and more like a bear market each week. The culprit is listed as "lower than expected NAND flash memory chip prices." So Intel said it is now looking for 54% margins, plus or minus 1%. Its previous guidance was 56%, plus or minus 1%. What is at least a bit of relief here is that Intel said that all other expectations are consistent with the prior guidance given with its last outlook.
I would note that Intel had recently been downgraded at Goldman Sachs and at AmTech. Arguably, this is the second warning if you count last quarter. Its 2% drop is fairly appropriate as that is basically how much the stock is down on the news. Intel closed up 0.2% Monday at $20.01, but it was now seeing shares trade down 2.5% at $19.51 in after-hours evening trades.
If you take this at face value, Intel at least has a robust processor business, or at least it has the best processors in the industry. This news is taking a toll on other semiconductor stocks as well, but as the news bit is specific to NAND flash memory chips, it is hitting those flash memory stocks the worst of the others.
Micron Tech (NYSE: MU) is one that won't be liking this as its turnaround seems to be in jeopardy. This may at least make the company pursue more active issues like divesting some assets. SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is perhaps the pure-play for flash memory stocks, and its shares were actually down almost 3.5% at $22.25 in after-hours trading. That was after already hitting a new 52-week low at the close of $23.05 as its trading range over the last year was $23.40 to $59.75. Spansion Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSN) is another go-to stock in flash memory. Its shares were down almost 3% in after-hours trading at $2.82 after having an almost 6% gain today. Unfortunately, it has had a poor year with its 52-week trading being $2.69 to $12.83.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Certain banks, VASCO Data Security and Bankrate were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded shares of Discover (NYSE: DFS) and Capital One (NYSE: COF) to Sell from Neutral and American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Sell from Buy, as they believe a U.S.-led recession will lead to increased credit losses.
Jefferies downgraded shares of VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's exposure to the financial services market, as they believe 2008 will be a tough year for small companies selling into tightening IT budgets.
Merriman lowered its rating on Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy on valuation, as they believe the stock is pricing in upside from strong website traffic seen in January driven by refinance activity and Fed rate cuts. Citigroup downgraded shares to Hold from Buy on valuation, as they find the risk/reward less compelling at current levels.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
JP Morgan removed SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) from its Top 3 Picks List.
Goldman downgraded CSK Auto (NYSE: CAO) to Neutral from Buy and removed Google (GOOG) from its Conviction Buy List.
Baird lowered Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Neutral from Outperform.
Verizon reported fourth-quarter earnings that were in line with expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. The company earned $1.07 billion, or 37 cents per share, in the period ending in December, compared to $1.03 billion, or 35 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier. Excluding charges for severance costs related to layoffs and a loss on the sale of Verizon's operations in the Dominican Republic, the latest earnings were 62 cents per share.
Revenue for the fourth quarter was $23.8 billion, up 5.5% from $22.6 billion a year ago. The average analyst forecast had been $23.96 billion. For all of 2007, Verizon earned $5.5 billion, or $1.90 a share, on $93.5 billion in revenue, compared to a profit of $6.2 billion, or $2.12 a share, on $88.2 billion in revenue the year before.
Shares were up almost 1% on Monday, to close at $38.11. Shares were at 52-week low of $35.40 last week.
Halliburton has met or beat earnings expectations in the past five quarters. When it reported third-quarter 2007 results back in October, its earnings per share of 66 cents beat the consensus estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial by two cents, as well as the actual 58 cents per share in the same period of the previous year. For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 69 cents per share, or $2.46 per share for the full year. That's up from $2.13 in 2006.
Halliburton's 60.7% earnings per share growth forecast for the next three to five years is well above the industry average and the S&P 500. The analysts' consensus recommendation is to buy Halliburton, with 8 of the 22 analysts considering it a strong buy. Shares have slipped from the 52-week high of $41.95 in October, and closed Friday at $33.09.
For Jim Cramer's take on Halliburton and other news that could influence the earnings results, see BloggingStocks' Halliburton coverage.
SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) has made its name in the consumer electronics arena mostly through flash memory products (like that card inside your digital camera). It is also the second-largest maker of digital media players, behind only Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its ubiquitous iPod.
But, as talk of a 2008 U.S. consumer spending slowdown make the rounds in the media (with some betting against it until later this year), SanDisk CEO Eli Harari believes his computer memory company will mostly be insulated from any slowdown effects in the U.S. He has a great reason too -- for years, SanDisk has ensured that it grows international sales to diversify itself against a slowdown in any particular market.
Gee, what a novel idea. Harari recently said, "Two-thirds of our revenue in the third quarter came from overseas and this is not by accident . . . we are absolutely driving market share outside of the United States. If there is to be a recession, we are very well positioned."
As long as international and U.S. consumer see a need to feed themselves more digital storage (phones, cameras, computers, you name it), SanDisk will be there to supply the demand and provide more product for less price over time. Unfortunately, SNDK investors aren't recognizing this, as the company's shares are trading at two-year lows on fears of an oversupply in the flash memory market, combined with fears of consumers curbing their digital memory purchases. Hey, everyone -- stop using all those gadgets and prove the market right, okay? Yeah, right.
Often taking a look at 52-week low gives a hint as to which sectors are in trouble. But, it also may provide investors a look at shares that could come back under the right circumstances. Bottom fishing sometimes pay dividends.
McClatchy Co. (NYSE: MNI): The Wall Street Journal did a major story on McClatchy last week. Its shares are down over 70%, but the company CEO insists that when weak parts of the economy in Florida and California make a comeback, newspapers will recover, too. There may be some wisdom to the observation, but probably not for McClatchy. Most of the company's newspapers are in median-sized markets and that makes it harder for the firm to have a major presence in the internet ad business. Companies like The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) and Gannett Inc. (NYSE: GCI) with their large internet operations like USAToday.com have a much better chance of offsetting falling print revenue with online sales.
Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK): This tech company finds itself in the wrong place at the wrong time. At just over $33, its shares are down by almost half this year. The company is one of the world's largest producers of flash memory chips and the prices for the products are crashing. The turnaround at the company may come when prices for these chips become more stable because demand is moving up. Sandisk products are a big part of what goes into cell phones, digital cameras, and multimedia players. A bottom on flash prices should bring shares back.
Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT): Supplying infrastructure to the world's big telecom and cable companies used to look like a sexy business. But, Nortel shares are off to $15.20 from a 52-week high of $31.79. Rival Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) is doing no better. The build-out of systems like 3G and WiMax is going slower than planned and mergers of big telecom companies have taken some customers out of the picture. The market may begin to improve, but companies with more advanced tech, like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), are likely to benefit.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Studios are up to something -- and it sounds like an attack on Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes online audio and video store. After breaking ties with Apple this past summer and no longer supplying its content to the iTunes store, NBC is probably looking for some way to deliver its shows in ways that go beyond mere broadcast television.
Without access to iTunes, NBC risks losing those many viewers who no longer watch much regular television, zap through commercials with their DVRs when they do, and get their video fixes via websites.
So, NBC partners with SanDisk, a company known for making flash computer storage and for being the second-largest seller in the world of digital music players (behind Apple). But here's the catch: the new partnership is about delivering NBC's content to set-top boxes meant for regular television viewing. Huh? Is NBC just looking for some partnership -- any partnership -- so viewers won't forget about its programming?
What happened to the Hulu deal, which sounded more like an iTunes competitor rather than the same old model of delivering content via set-top boxes to customer's television sets? Apparently nothing. Is NBC becoming desperate? Some signs point to yes. Was Apple wise to treat its former content partner like a black sheep? Most signs point to yes.
In business, the company with the information has the power -- especially in the computer industry. The information behind NAND flash memory, the type of memory used in digital cameras, USB flash drives and cell phones, is almost exclusively controlled by SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK), a California-based company that owns more than 1,000 patents on NAND technology worldwide.
Because of these exclusive patents, which the company defends ferociously, of course, SanDisk is the only company that can manufacture every kind of flash card format. Recent acquisitions of two other companies (and their patents) mean that SanDisk should be able to maintain this competitive advantage through 2010. So not only does SanDisk sell memory cards to many component manufacturers (like cell phone makers) and direct to the consumer (in the form of memory cards like the one you have for your digital camera), its licensing of its technologies means that SanDisk earns money on almost every sale of NAND memory worldwide.
Third quarter revenue grew by 25%, but the stock price did falter after the company estimated that there may be a drop in gross earning margins through the end of the year as it lowers the price of its products to reflect consumer demand. That said, Goldman Sachs is still calling this a conviction buy, and continuing demand for NAND memory, particularly in the cell phone market, coupled with SanDisk's virtual monopoly on the technology, backs up my conviction that this is a strong pick.
Type of Stock: SanDisk is the world's largest supplier of flash memory data storage products.
Price Target: SanDisk is currently trading in the mid-$40s after a drop to $39 last week following the earnings reports -- I'd grab it now as it climbs back up again. As tech continues to be strong and momentum buyers join value investors, you should see SanDisk hit $50 within the next 12 months. Hilary Kramer,author of the newly released Ahead of the Curve, is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing.
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In business, the company with the information has the power -- especially in the computer industry. The information behind NAND flash memory, the type of memory used in digital cameras, USB flash drives and cell phones, is almost exclusively controlled by 
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