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Options Update: Louisiana Pacific volatility low at 77

Louisiana Pacific (NYSE: LPX) closed at $6.11. LPX September option implied volatility is at 78, November is at 77; below its 26-week average of 106 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Seagate (NYSE: STX) closed at $12.30. STX September 10 puts were active on August 20 with volume of 4,564 contracts. STX September option implied volatility is at 49, December is at 51; below its 26-week average of 68, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Toshiba to acquire Fujitsu's HDD business

Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) and Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC) are the two top dogs in the hard drive business. While Seagate's merger with competitor Maxtor years ago should have helped quash Western Digital further, the latter has stayed strong and today has a share price Seagate can only dream of. Indeed, Seagate just tossed out Bill Watkins as CEO as the company tries to put the hurt on the competition. It just got a whole lot harder.

Continue reading Toshiba to acquire Fujitsu's HDD business

Options Update: GM options suggests movement; shares near record low

General Motors (NYSE: GM) closed at $2.50. GM is required to submit a recovery plan to the government today as a part of an agreement to receive billions of dollars of federal assistance. GM Feb 3 straddle is priced at 69 cents, GM Feb 2.5 straddle is at $1.18 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Seagate (NYSE: STX) closed at $4.37. STX's Chairman of the Board Stephen Luczo purchased 500,000 shares of STX on February 12, 2009. STX March option implied volatility of 120 is above its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) closed at $8.70. GSMA Mobile World Congress is being held in Barcelona today. PALM March option implied volatility of 122 is above its 26-week average of 107, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Earnings highlights: Apple, Microsoft, GE, Johnson & Johnson, Harley Davidson and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

For more highlights from this week, see eBay, Google, IBM, Southwest, UAL, AMR, Northern Trust and others

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Apple, Microsoft, GE, Johnson & Johnson, Harley Davidson and others

Seagate replaces current CEO with a previous CEO

Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has told CEO William Watkins to hit the road, and has brought in Chairman and former CEO Stephen Luczo to replace him. Watkins, one of the funniest and most candid CEOs on the planet, has been the operational wizard behind Seagate's manufacturing turnaround in the last five years while he also cut Seagate's global workforce by half as the company became leaner and more aggressive. It also swallowed competitor Maxtor a few years ago, but has never been able to squash competitor Western Digital Corp. (NYSE: WDC), which continues to eat its lunch at every opportunity.

Still, Seagate's quarterly results on January 21st may show that the world's largest disk drive maker has fallen hard on the back of consumer spending slowdowns and reduced orders from its largest OEM and distribution partners. Seagate President and COO David Wickersham also abruptly resigned yesterday, which makes us all wonder just what kind of internal turmoil there was at the top of Seagate's management ranks.

Luczo, the banker who took Seagate private in 2000 with a group of investors only to take it public again a few years later with a fat check in his pocket, isn't a technologist. He's not an operational guy, nor a manufacturing guy. He is a finance guy who will no doubt have to turn Seagate's fortunes around once again to prop up its flagging stock price, which has plummeted from over $28 just over year ago to less than $5 today.

The week in preview: More hope for techs, doubt about financials

Wall Street's optimism in last week's preview about the earnings of tech stocks wasn't misplaced, as there were many more positive surprises than negative ones among the stocks we looked at. This week will bring plenty more data for investors in and watchers of the sector to mull over. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), for example, are expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post modest earnings gains from a year ago, to $1.11 per share (on $8.1 billion in sales), $0.72 per share (on $31.3 billion in sales), and $0.47 per share (on $14.8 billion in sales) respectively. All three of these companies ended the week closer to their 52-week lows than highs, and analysts on average consider them each a buy.

Here's a look at some of the week's biggest expected earnings gainers and decliners in the sector:

Continue reading The week in preview: More hope for techs, doubt about financials

Seagate patent claim could spell trouble for PC industry

When Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) made the claim recently that it holds a decent amount of patents related to the solid-state drive (SSD), there were probably some global tech firms cautiously fidgeting in their collective chairs. You see, Seagate is the world's largest hard drive company. Hard drives enable, well, everything from that laptop PC to the TiVo box at home to the classic iPod.

The deal is this, though: most hard drives use spinning platters that really do become a bottleneck in performance within the products those drives are located in. Samsung and other companies have been championing SSDs as a way to remove slower hard drives from products and replace them with computer chip storage devices that have no moving parts, don't heat up as much, use less power and are much faster in performance. That is, unless Seagate has patent claims to much of this platform, which is what it's claiming after buying a patent portfolio from Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) years ago.

The first company under the gun is STEC, a manufacturer of SSDs. But the question of the hour is this: can one company actually patent the concept of an SSD, now that the technology itself is poised to start competing more heavily with traditional hard drive in everything from laptop PCs to set-top digital video recorders? Hard drives enable the growth of the PC market every quarter as well as a whole slew of other devices consumer snap up like hotcakes. Could Seagate own this universe shortly? It's being mum on its intentions, but if the company wants to become nasty about protecting its patents, it could become an even more powerful force in the storage industry than it already is.

Analyst downgrades: STX, NT, TJX, NVS and ANN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seagate, Nortel Networks and Ann Taylor were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Thomas Weisel downgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Market Weight from Overweight as they believe the company's growth will be more muted given high existing market share and overall industry growth.
  • Baird downgraded Nortel (NYSE: NT) to Neutral from Outperform citing checks that indicate deteriorating US Enterprise sales in the last few weeks of Q1. The firm now expects companies to guide flat QoQ instead of up and to make cautious 2H08 comments.
  • Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper to reflect concerns over the LOFT division as well as consumer spending.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: MOT, CPKI and STX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, California Pizza, and Seagate were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Neutral from Buy, despite believing the split into two businesses could ultimately unlock value, as they see few catalysts over the next year to lift shares. Banc of America also sees risk to Q1 earnings and lowered their target to $11 from $15.
  • Friedman Billings lowered California Pizza Kitchen (NASDAQ: CPKI) to Market Perform from Outperform citing sluggish trends in its core markets.
  • Seagate (NYSE: STX) was cut to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, citing weakening industry conditions throughout the month of March.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Seagate (STX) aims to drive emerging hybrid hard drive market

Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has begun shipping the first of its hybrid hard drives for notebook computers and smaller computing devices needing high-performance storage at reasonable cost. Hard drives are inside almost every desktop and laptop PC these days, and although they have advanced technologically with processor speeds and other performance metrics, they are still the performance bottlenecks in almost every computer. Why? At the root, hard drives are still where they were decades ago -- reading and writing data from spinning magnetic platters. Many tricks have upped performance since 2001 or so, but hard drives still look to be aging for the computing needs which always require more performance year after year.

Now, for pure storage needs, like for iPods or TiVo boxes, hard drives are fine. As laptop computers replace desktops, more performance is becoming crucial to these systems. As a result, the hybrid hard drive was born. Newer units from Seagate contain 256 Megabytes of RAM (solid-state storage) to augment those spinning magnetic platters. Here's the only wrinkle: there is a cost premium to that. Will consumers accept that? Highly doubtful, and so we have a conundrum.

Seagate's newer hybrid hard drive products may make their way to higher-end laptop computers soon, and the early adopter consumer and technologically minded will pay the expected 30% premium just to get the added performance (well, hopefully added performance). After a while, volume and economics will drive that premium down to where there is none. If Seagate really wants to become the premier supplier of new-generation hybrid drives above where it already sits with existing market share, that premium needs to come down to 10% to 15% at the most. That may crimp margin a little, but competitive laurels won't ever rest when it comes to the hard drive industry.

Seagate's (STX) Watkins sees bright future for hard drive industry

Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has had an interesting seven years. The company was taken private by a group of investment firms led by Silver Lake Partners and Texas Pacific Group and then returned to the public markets a mere two years later for some odd reason. Wait: that reason was to give a payoff to the investors, as going off the market for 24 months gave the global company a chance to sneer at Wall Street's quarterly, paranoid expectations and focus on long-term strategy. The hard drive company you may have rarely heard of, though, is recording billions in revenue each quarter and is in fine shape financially. CEO Bill Watkins trumpets this fact all the time, but the Street rarely listens.

So, with Watkins alluding to $3 billion quarters in the near future and growing profits these days, is the market listening? Maybe not yet, but maybe your portfolio should. The never-slowing demand for storage is everywhere these days, hiding in plain site. Have a full-size iPod, Tivo box or other DVR, Xbox 360 or a computer in the home? Each one of those probably has some kind of hard drive in size, and according to Watkins, more consumers are buying all that storage than businesses these days. We have an insatiable need to store movies, music, files, taxes and everything else digitally, so this makes sense.

Continue reading Seagate's (STX) Watkins sees bright future for hard drive industry

Newspaper wrap-up: Home Depot deal gets done

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:

Analyst upgrades: ANF, BBI, HD and KSS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: CACI Int'l (CAI), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl's (KSS) and the software sector were today's most noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded CACI Int'l (NASDAQ: CAI) to Overweight from Underweight, considering the company an attractive, defensive stock and a "safe haven" based on the government exposure.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) to Outperform from Market Perform citing ongoing cost-cutting and MG&A lines.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and successful execution of its marketing, merchandising and store expansion plans.
  • Bear Stearns upgraded the software sector to Market Weight from Underweight on valuation...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • FTN Midwest upgraded to Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Buy from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analysts upgrades: DTV, EAT, NVDA and STX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Red Lion Hotels (RLH), Constellation Energy (CEP), Brinker Int'l (EAT), Nvidia (NVDA) and InfoSpace (INSP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Baird upgraded Red Lion Hotels (NYSE: RLH) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, brand expansion progress and takeover potential.
  • Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEP) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup based on higher cash flow expectations and valuation.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Brinker (NYSE: EAT) to Overweight from Neutral, and sees potential upside from slower unit development and a possible Mac Grill sale.
  • BMO Capital upgraded Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) to Outperform from Market Perform following a strong second quarter.
  • Stanford upgraded InfoSpace (NASDAQ: INSP) to Hold from Sell on valuation; They consider the core online segments looks to be priced into the stock and downside support is given with tax credits and the cash balance...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of PepsiAmericas (NYSE: PAS) to Neutral from Underweight.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Emulex (NYSE: ELX) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • DirecTV (NYSE: DTV) was raised to Buy from Hold at Gabelli.
  • Seagate (NYSE: STX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 8-07-07: BX, DELL, HPQ and YHOO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Ingram Micro (IM), SYNNEX Corp (SNX), Yahoo! (YHOO), Macquarie Infrastructure (MIC) and Polypore International (PPO) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Banc of America assumed coverage of Ingram Micro (NYSE: IM) with a Buy rating and $23 target, as the firm is positive on the company's balanced growth and margin expansion.
  • Banc of America also initiated shares of SYNNEX Corp (NYSE: SNX) with a Buy rating and $24 target, as they believe cost synergies and mix in 2007 will drive 2008 leverage and share appreciation.
  • ThinkEquity transferred coverage of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) with an Accumulate rating and cut its target to $27. ThinkEquity believes Yahoo!'s challenges, which include employee turnover risk, slower user growth, competitive pressures and limited upside in search, are unlikely to be fixed near-term by the new team of management.
  • Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE: MIC) was initiated with a Buy rating and $51 target at Citigroup, as the firm believes management fee concerns are priced into shares and that the recent acquisition of Mercury Air and San Jose Jet Center will drive a 6% increase in dividend by the end of 2007.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Lehman Brothers initiated shares of Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) with an Overweight rating and $32 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-17.2410,433.71
NASDAQ-6.832,169.18
S&P 500-0.591,105.65

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:37 PM

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