The deal for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to allow Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to sell text ads on the portal's search pages may happen more quickly than most analysts believed. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Yahoo Inc. moved closer to outsourcing its search advertising to Google Inc. after an initial test of the system yielded what the two firms deemed positive results."

The partnership could add several hundred million dollars of revenue to Yahoo!'s annual numbers. Most observers believe that regulators would be troubled by the two largest search companies joining forces.

The news still begs that question of whether any deal can be better than Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) offer to buy Yahoo! for over $29 a share. The first offer was at $31, but Microsoft's shares, part of the payment, have declined since then.

Yahoo!'s actions to run away from Microsoft seem to go along the lines of trying to stay independent for the sake of being independent. In other words, the company has no answer to the question of why investors are better off if Yahoo! stands alone.

Since no one other than Microsoft wants to buy the portal, the answer is that Yahoo! has lost all options to defend its present strategy. A deal with Google does not, in any way Yahoo! can explain, make the company worth $30 a share.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Google's (GOOG) shares continue to be stuck below $500 where they have been since late February. Part of the reason for the fall is that comScore data showed that the number of people who clicked on ads at the big search engine was weak in January.

It looks like the stock will drop again as "click rates" for Google ads rose only 3% in February when compared with the figures for the same month last year. According to MarketWatch: "Google reported 25% growth in paid clicks in its fiscal fourth quarter ended in December. But comScore data released last month showed flat growth in Google's paid clicks in January." Now, investors can ponder another piece of bad news.

The easy answer to the Google data is that a recession is slowing down advertising activity everywhere. Google carries millions of ads in its AdSense program, so it would make sense that it should suffer some fallout.

But, the answer may be more troubling than that. Readers of Google's search pages may be discovering that the text ads next to the listings are from marketers trying to take advantage of people looking for information by clogging pages with related messages. As more people understand the system of targeting based on search results, fewer are willing to be sucked in by companies trying to reach them due to their behavior.

If the Google system of matching ads to search results is putting its customers off, that would be worse news than the effects of a recession.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Henry Blodget at Silicon Alley Insider offers some good in "Google Sucks Life Out of Old Media." While we all know that, yes, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is a one-race pony and that its growth rates are slowing, there is no denying that Google continues to not only dominate the online ad party, but advertising in general as its growth rates mock anything else comparable out there.

Blodget looks at a couple of things here. First, he looks at the growth of advertising in general and its split between online and offline. Next, he looks at the split between online players and their growth prospects. His findings won't surprise Google bulls (this author included), but to see the actual numbers -- it's pretty staggering.

Specifically, some numbers from Blodget:

• Total U.S. ad revenue (in 17 companies Blodget, et al., looked at) grew 9% from 2006 to 2007, from $53 billion to $58 billion.

• Online ad revenue grew 28%, from $14 billion to $18 billion.

Wow. While 9% overall industry growth is interesting, though not jump-up-and-down-and-call-your-preacher numbers, online ad growth is seeing tremendous gains.

So, who's the winner in all of this?

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the champion of search, but you wouldn't know it from its stock price lately. The stock has been clobbered as of late due to some differences of opinion over how to interpret certain data relating to click-throughs the monster search engine has been seeing. While this blogger's opinion is that paid search is probably the last thing to get hit on the advertising side during a recession, it is true that paid search would most likely suffer through an economic downturn.

There is no disagreement, though, over the potential for Google's acquisition of DoubleClick to have a significant impact on the company and on the online ad industry. Google has been working with both the U.S. and EU's antitrust departments to OK the merger. We got the go-ahead in the US in December and today, the EU OK'ed the deal as well.

In allowing the merger to go through, the EU concluded that Google could not successfully employ anti-competitive practices with the presence of viable ad serving competitors, like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO).

In what may end up being a net positive for eBay, albeit possibly an expensive one, a settlement has been reached in the litigation over patent infringement between eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) and MercExchange. Financial figures of the settlement have not been disclosed, but a report from Computerworld indicates that eBay shall purchase the three patents which were the subject of the litigation, as well as a number of other related technologies and developments.

Mike Jacobson, eBay senior vice president and general counsel, was quoted by Computerworld as stating: "In addition to resolving the litigation, this settlement gives us access to additional intellectual property that will help improve and further secure our marketplaces." MercExchange founder and CEO Thomas Woolston, is quoted in the same report as stating: "It seemed like the right time to put it behind us."

In May of 2003, a jury in the case found eBay guilty of patent infringement and an injunction was sought and granted. However, in reviewing the US Court of Appeals decision, the Supreme Court unanimously derailed the long standing practice of issuing immediate injunctions in cases of intellectual property infringement, insisting that in the future, such injunctions must meet the requirements of a four-factor test.

Bill Gates says Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will chase the search business whether it buys Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) or not. He says that the company's mighty tech arsenal will allow it to improve the efficiency of its search results and that it can take a larger share of the market based on that alone.

"We can afford to make big investments in the engineering and marketing that needs to get done. We will do that with or without Yahoo," said Gates in an interview with Reuters. For a very smart man, Gates sounds dumb.

Microsoft currently has about 11% of the search market in the US. Its global piece is even smaller. Not only does Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) have a much larger share, it is also improving its technology as quickly, if not more quickly, than Redmond.

Gates may have been asked to make his comments to signal to Yahoo! that it will not raise its offer. It only needs the search portal so much. It can reach its goal on its own.

But behind closed doors, Gates knows better.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24wallst.com

With investor interest high in China, this hasn't been lost on corporate investment. Companies must face the decision about how to address the Chinese juggernaut: essentially, to build, buy, or partner.

PaidContent.org has a story this morning that the Internet giant, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), is close to launching a joint venture to offer free music downloads in the Chinese market.

According to PaidContent, "Google is in the late planning stages of a JV with Chinese online music company Top100.cn, a Beijing-based site that currently sells licensed music downloads. The new service would permit Google's search engine in China to provide free and licensed music downloads, reports WSJ, citing sources."

This is significant in Google's push to counter leading Chinese search engine, Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU), which already provides links to download sites.

This move may help Google position itself vis-a-vis locally-favored Baidu.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author owns a long-term position in Google stock.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) Chief Executive Jerry Yang is going to have to convince investors that the company he helped found in 1995 still matters when it reports fourth quarter results later today. It's not going to be easy.

The most visited Web site is expected to report its eighth straight quarter of declining profit. according to Bloomberg News. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting an average profit of 11 cents on revenue of $1.41 billion. Expectations, to put it kindly, are real low.

The view of Sanford Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay quoted by Bloomberg that Yahoo ``just isn't generating anything like the resources they need to really stay in the game" is typical. Yahoo shares have plunged more than 27% over the past year.

Unfortunately, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) isn't the only company taking a bite out of Yahoo which trails the search engine giant in every conceivable metric. Social networking sites such as Facebook continue to siphon away young users coveted by advertisers as are smaller niche sites, forcing Yahoo to offer rate discounts to advertisers.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) had a very busy 2007 -- initiatives and projects, product launches and a furious growth rate that kept analysts guessing every single quarter. With so much going on at the world's most popular internet search engine, will Google lose focus on the bread-n-butter machine of its revenue -- web searches?

If Google would pour as much focus and resources into all its products as it does the constant refinements it gives its search-related advertising, the company would have many revenue legs to stand on (most likely). However, Google has a history of launching products to see how they do before dedicating too many resources to it. After all, it took years for text advertising on Google searches to produce billions in quarterly revenue. The more products prove themselves, the more attention they get.

What other products from Google will get more and more attention in 2008? The New York Times says that Google could eventually control 80% to 90% of internet searches, up from today's sub-70% level. Can Google really attain search engine growth to attain complete and utter domination of search?

If not, where are supplemental revenues going to come from? Google is lining up products to fill this void, but it can't lose focus on its core search business, even for a nanosecond. To fuel all the growth and the massive product launches from the company, the revenue will have to be there. Right now, that's all search -- and it must continue to be Google's main focus in everything it does.

It is hard to imagine that Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) share of the search market in the US could get much larger, but in each month it seems to make further gains.

Google piece of search queries increased to 57.7% in November compared with 55.5% in October, according to data from Nielsen Online cited by The Associated Press. . For the big search company to move up that way. Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) pieces of the pie had to move down. And, they did.

The flip side of Google's monthly success story is the talk of Yahoo!'s failure. Its share of November searches dropped to under 18%. At the rate it is failing, the number could be less than 15% by the end of the year.

The story about the failure at Yahoo! is now as old as the hills, but what may happen to its stock price is another matter. Its shares are now below $24 which is near its 52-week low. Search is not all of Yahoo!'s business, but it does rely on the feature to bring in much of its traffic and revenue.

At a 15% share of the search market, what is Yahoo! worth? Certainly not $24. Perhaps below $20. That could be a 50% drop in two years.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The Wall Street Journal is out with a story today shedding a little more light on Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) online storage plans. The WSJ article claims hat the search giant is planning on launching an online storage service in the next few month to enable users to store documents, pictures, and music on Google's servers. Google already provides some level of storage via its image hosting service, Picasa, and Google Docs, Google's online stab at competing with Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Office Suite.

The rumored Gdrive is one step closer to reality. This will probably be a two-tiered service with a free version and a premium version for which users will have to pony up some money. Don't look for this to provide short-term meaningful revenues for search behemoth. Something more important, though, is happening.

Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has never been shy about announcing grand plans. But in the arena of online advertising, that plan may simply be to move into second place.

Reuters reports that "the plan, which represents Microsoft's aspirations over the next three to five years, calls on Microsoft to increase the company's share in web search, page views, percentage of time on the internet and percentage of advertising dollars." The world's largest software company is clearly way behind Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) in online dollars, and also trails Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).

The cornerstone of Microsoft's plan is to get its share of the online search market from 10% to 30%. Those that think that number is crazy get a gold star.

For Microsoft to presume that it can triple its share of search means that Google would have to lose at least 10 points of its market share and Yahoo!'s piece of the market would be cut in half. There is absolutely no evidence that the Microsoft search product is anywhere close to Google's in quality of results. And, internet search habits for most users are probably fixed and would be hard to change.

Microsoft having 30% of the search market is not unlike it taking a third of the market for music players from the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPod. The big software company has tried that with the Zune and the results have been embarrassing.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU), China's largest search engine, said this week that it beat profit expectations by doubling its most recent quarterly profit, but shares still are trading quite a bit below where they were just a few weeks ago as the company's management warned on profit guidance moving forward, which fell a little flat compared to what analysts were expecting. Maybe analysts are expecting too much, too soon? It wouldn't be the first time for recklessly, short-mindedness palpitations from Street "experts."

Baidu.com's shares have been on a speculative and hyped journey this year (they are priced way out of whack considering fundamentals), but reality did return to the picture a bit as of a few weeks ago when those shares came crashing down in what could be seen as a needed correction. Although Baidu.com operates as the largest search provider in the world's most populous country, it's no Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) when it comes to monetizing all those eyeballs -- yet.

Baidu.com has a very enterprising future in front of it, although a large question remains on whether it can rake up those revenues like Google has managed to do in many global markets. Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) is in a similar position: It captures billions of views every month, but lacks the advertising prowess to smartly monetize that traffic compared to industry leader Google. But an advertising explosion is still in the infant stages in China, and Baidu.com -- if it plays its cards right -- has a huge potential in front of it. But torrid, rapid growth? That may still be too much to expect in the next quarter or so.

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Ever since I was a kid, I've always rooted for the underdog. As a Philadelphia sports fan, you have to be that way or else you will go insane. That's why I've always had a soft spot for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).

When others argued that the portal was doomed, I took the contrary position figuring that as more advertising dollars shifted online, the company would get more than its fair share. I figured that Project Panama would make Yahoo's search business at least marginally competitive with Google Inc.'s (NASDAQ: GOOG). Boy, was I wrong. The company's search business continues to suck wind as it loses audience to social networking sites such as MySpace and Facebook. BusinessWeek points out that Yahoo is trying to go back to its geeky roots. While an admirable goal, it may be too little too late.

That thumping sound you just heard was me along with countless others jumping off the Yahoo bandwagon. For the past few months, Yahoo has been sputtering along aimlessly trying to yet again reinvent itself through its 100-day review. Judging from the market's reaction, investors don't have much faith that Jerry Yang and Sue Decker are going to come up with anything groundbreaking. Shares are down $1.01. or 3.6%, to $26.85 ahead of the release of earnings after the close of trading today. They have plunged about 15% over the past six months.

About the only thing that might move the stock is an announcement that it outsourced its search business to Google or that it's considering strategic alternatives including a sale of the company. Yahoo continues to provide good content and knows how to engage users, which would make it a good fit with Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ: MSFT) MSN.

Today's earnings conference call will be lively.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) recently trading up $15.29 to $609.20.

GOOG is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) on October 18th. GOOG October at the money 580 straddle is priced at $32.10. GOOG October option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) CEO Glenn Murphy hosted a meeting with analysts on October 5th.

Smith Barney says "Mr. Murphy is focused on making the company gets an adequate return on its investments. This includes a focus on the expense of the business. We suspect there will be continued focus on moderating the cost structure and assessing various cost components, including marketing. We think the real estate portfolio is under review." GPS over all option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting flat price risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.