Found an interesting article from Reuters, noting that investors specializing in distressed debt and bankruptcy believe that our current recession will "last at least three years and possibly longer absent a revival in credit markets." Michael Psaros, managing partner at KPS Capital Partners told Reuters, "This is going to be a three- to four-year disaster," and used the term "Great Recession" when discussing the current crisis.

One way to gauge market breadth is to compare the performance of an index where each constituent member is weighted equally to its more traditional, capitalization-weighted counterpart.

When benchmark measures are rising but fewer shares are taking part, that often signals that an advance is nearing its sell-by date.

As far as the S&P 500 index goes, such a divergence has been in effect since late in the summer. That's when the ratio of the equal-weighted version to the conventional version began to roll over.

When it comes to individual sectors, however, there has been considerable variation between them.

Over the past year, for example, the performance of the health care, energy and industrial sectors has been relatively broad-based, while information technology, telecom services and materials group returns have been skewed in favor of large cap shares.

Arguably, because the latter three sectors have lacked the breadth of participation of the former three, that could mean they are especially vulnerable should the market resume the correction that kicked off in mid-October.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Most investors know that certain days of the week are better for stocks than others. Over the past 10 years, for example, the S&P 500 index has fared best on Wednesdays and worst on Tuesdays, with median returns of 0.10% and 0.00%, respectively. These differences, of course, are relatively small. But some rather more noteworthy divergences crop up when you break down the patterns by sector.

In that case, Friday happens to be the best day of the week, both in absolute terms and relative to the market, when the median daily performance of all the various S&P 500 economic sectors are taken into account. The winning group? Energy, with an average return of 0.21% and 0.17%, respectively. Coming in a close second, in nominal terms at least, is the information technology group, with a gain of 0.21% on Wednesdays and 0.20% on Mondays.

As far as which day of the week is the worst for any particular sector, there are two contenders for the crown. In absolute terms, Monday has been the laggard, with the energy sector declining by an average of 5 basis points over the course of the past decade. In terms of relative performance, however, Wednesdays are at the bottom, dragged down by the -0.12% median return of financial shares.

By most accounts, last Friday's discount rate cut by the Federal Reserve was intended to benefit the beleaguered credit markets, and by extension, lenders and other financial institutions that have suffered as a result of the current upheaval.

Given that, it is interesting that the biggest beneficiaries in performance terms since Thursday's close have been the materials, energy, and industrials sectors.

Some might say that means equity investors interpreted Friday's action as a routine step towards eventual monetary policy easing -- rather than an abrupt policy reversal to address a quickening credit crisis.

More cynically, it may have been seen as just another opportunity to re-enter or add to positions that have been in vogue among the leveraged speculation crowd for quite a while now.

Today's early rally brings the S&P 500 index a step closer to the March 24, 2000 record closing high of 1527.36. Despite all the hoopla, it's worth keeping in mind that the benchmark measure is essentially unchanged over the course of the past seven years.

Still, the round trip from the bubble's peak does mask a dramatic contrast in the fortunes of the index's 10 underlying sectors. For example, energy shares (which have an equivalent exchange-traded fund, or ETF (AMEX: XLE)) have more than doubled over the period, while the information technology group (AMEX: XLK) has lost nearly two-thirds of its value.

This should drive home the point that while moves in the major indices offer insights on the "pulse" of the overall market, it's often what occurs below the surface -- at the sector and individual share level -- that matters most to investors in the longer run.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.

Based on an analysis of quarterly sector performance during the period 1995-2006, S&P 500 economic sectors that perform best in any given quarter tend to fare less well in the three months that follow. In contrast, groups that perform worst tend to improve their relative standing in the subsequent span.

So far this period, utilities and materials have been the best performers by a relatively wide margin. The laggards have been financials and consumer discretionary shares. If past trends hold true, it might make sense to shift sector allocations for the next three months away from shares in the winning sectors towards those in groups that finished at the bottom of the pack.

It's worth noting that this is a relative performance strategy. Some or all of the ten sectors could finish higher or lower next quarter, depending on what happens to the overall market.

Sector	Quarter-to-Date Return %
=================	====
Utilities	8.78
Materials	7.92
Telecom Services	4.80
Energy	2.07
Consumer Staples	0.99
Industrials	0.44
Health Care	0.24
=================	====
S&P 500	-0.08
=================	====
Information Technology	-1.02
Consumer Discretionary	-1.33
Financials	-3.86

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.