sell in May posts

Feed

Sell in May? A Look at Sentiment and Seasonality

"The market's seasonal effects have been nothing short of phenomena; for six decades, if you invested money only during the months from November through April, you made lots of money," says Alan Newman.

In a review of "seasonal market timing", the editor of CrossCurrent explains, "If you instead invested money only during the months from May through October, you lost money. You heard that right. Over a period measuring six decades, you would have lost money.

"The statistics represent far and away the most significant dichotomy ever seen in stock investing. If you invested $10,000 in the Dow from November through April, you'd have almost $517,000 now, an annualized rte of gain of 14.1%.

Continue reading Sell in May? A Look at Sentiment and Seasonality

Should you 'sell in May and go away'?

There is a well known investment strategy that says that investors should by stocks at Halloween and sell them at the end of April. Statistically, most market gains have occurred during that six month period, so the theory says to buy stocks then and when May comes, you should sell.

This time around, the 'buy at Halloween' plan would have been a bad move. With markets reaching their highs at the end of October, investors would have ended up buying the market high only to watch the market collapse. Now that we have finally had a good month, loyalists to the theory would have you sell.

I got a call from a client who asked what I thought about implementing the strategy on his account. I actually think that the market may be setting up for a nice spring and summer rally. It appears that the market has the potential to keep moving higher. While the economy slowed down, it didn't enter a recession, and corporate earnings have generally beaten estimates. Coupled with the economic stimulus checks that are supposed to be arriving in our mailboxes any day, this looks like the year that the 'sell in May and go away' strategy isn't going to be successful.

How about 'buy in May and watch your portfolio go up up and away!'?

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/30/08

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 11:39 PM

Hot Stocks

General Electric

19.20-0.05(-0.26)

Alcoa

8.630.00(0.00)

Apple Inc

562.29-3.03(-0.54)

Google Inc 'A'

591.53-12.13(-2.01)

Bank of America

7.15+0.01(+0.14)

Wal-Mart Stores

65.31+0.24(+0.37)

Exxon Mobil Corp

82.08-0.53(-0.64)

Ford

10.60+0.01(+0.09)

Citigroup

26.47-0.19(-0.71)

IBM

194.30-1.79(-0.91)

Yahoo

15.36+0.01(+0.07)

Starbucks

54.56-0.20(-0.37)

Microsoft

29.06-0.01(-0.03)

Home Depot

49.44-0.27(-0.54)

DailyFinance Headlines

AOL Business News

BioHealth Investor Headlines

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance

Page Loaded in 1338262768952 ms.