AOL Money & Finance

sell off posts

Feed

Latest rally: Déjà vu all over again?

Some have noted the similarities between the recent run-up in U.S. share prices and the move that took place from March through July. But it's the differences that investors should really be concerned about.
In both cases, powerful rallies kicked off following mid-month capitulation lows after investors fretted over the fallout from upheaval in credit markets. Each time, the S&P 500 index managed to tack on about 200 points, or 14%, pushing the benchmark index back towards its March 2000 highs.

Of course, the first run-up took four months to complete, while the latter occurred in less than half the time. Leaving aside the question of whether the latest move has been a case of "too far, too fast," other comparisons suggest the market's current technical position may, in fact, be more precarious than it was in July, when prices suddenly fell off a cliff.

For one thing, investors seem to be as or more exuberant now than they were back then, which is the kind of thing that makes most contrarians more than a bit nervous.

Continue reading Latest rally: Déjà vu all over again?

Yesterday's sell off might have been due to Goldman's earnings

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) reported, as has become usual the past few years, terrific results. However, analysts are becoming skeptical.

The terrific results
  • Revenue and earnings up 35% and 31%, respectively
  • Return on equity was 38%, a massive number
  • Trading and principal investments were up 35%
  • Equities were up 26% -- principal trading
Planet earth results
  • Equity commission up 3% -- up essentially the rate of inflation
  • Assets under management grew 6% -- roughly in-line with money supply growth
  • Employees up 2%

What these numbers tell you is that Goldman makes most of it money from taking risk. Especially in the fixed income, currency and commodities businesses or what is now called the FICC businesses.

The so-called FICC business you will be hearing a lot more about during the next year or possibly the next few days. That is where all the subprime and prime mortgage trading occurs. All the major Wall Street firms now group their businesses this way. This is where all the leverage trading occurs for the house account.

As we started blogging about a few months ago, be careful of the major brokerage firms. They reported tremendous results during the earlier part of this decade primarily due to fixed income profits. This is now coming to an end. Unless stock commissions go through the roof, these companies are going to have a tough time growing earnings.

Boohoo!: blame tech selloff on Yahoo!

Yahoo!, Yahoo!, what did you do?

While I busy myself composing a nursery rhyme about Yahoo!'s deadly warning of an hour ago, I'm looking at the red numbers on my monitor. (What rhymes with "Project Panama"? Ooh, I can just rhyme with "unforeseen delay.") Yep, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is not looking good, down $3.57, or 12.3%, and flirting with its 52-week low of $24.91. Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) down 4%, or $16.54, to $398.15 (break on through to the other, other side!). eBay investors are slamming their portfolios, too, selling off eBay to the tune of a drop of 82 cents, or 3%, to $26.02.

Yahoo!'s position as bellwether certainly has a storied history; I remember oh-so-well those heady days in early 1999 when I sat in Jeremy Siegel's finance class at Wharton and watched Yahoo! soar to ever-dizzier-heights, rising and falling $100, $200 a share in a single day. It was crazy, and the company always lead the market. That was long before the advent of a public Google; and it's interesting to see how Google and Yahoo! are interacting now that the two of them share a sector on the NASDAQ.

Yahoo! is to blame, that's for sure. It's the company's failure to grab revenue from the ever-luscious but hard-to-handle local classifieds. It's the terrifically unreliable growth. More than anything, it's the "confusion and delay" caused by the unknown future of Project Panama.

It's all Yahoo!'s fault.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+132.7910,450.95
NASDAQ+29.972,176.01
S&P 500+14.861,106.24

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 12:10 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

DailyFinance Headlines

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

WalletPop Headlines

AOL Business News

BioHealth Investor Headlines

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance