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Dell's move into Wal-Mart: a change in strategy?

Everyone who's interested in the Dell to Wal-Mart retail scenario wants to get a better idea of just exactly what Dell intends to do over there. We all know that Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is the "Low Price Leader", so how does this play out for Dell (NASDAQ: DELL)? Being that my Dell corporate headquarters spy drones are down for repairs and my Wal-Mart corporate spy cams have been taken off line, I can only speculate on the intended direction which Dell's move is going to take. Over at Engadget the response to this move has been tepid, or leaning towards not well received.

First, let me say that at its root this Dell move is an excellent idea. By that I mean Dell has needed a direct outlet to the consumer for quite some time. Some of the tech sector analysts where aghast when they heard of this move because they had quickly assumed that Dell was changing over their entire marketing strategy to volume by low price but I assure you that's not what's happening here. Dell will still be building the lion's share of its desktop computers to customer order and shipping them direct. Wal-Mart, for the time being at least, shall only be handling a couple exclusive Dimension desktop models and I expect a select few notebook and laptop models. I predict also that as Dell earns Wal-Mart shelf space, there will be other Dell branded consumer electronics moving in there, but probably never their full desktop line.

Wal-Mart is historically demanding in their requirements for wholesale purchasing. They set the prices, the volume and the time tables. It's very much a take it or leave it world when selling to Wal-Mart. To me, it's kind of a sign of desperation that Dell has opted to go this route. I honestly thought that a Radio Shack (NYSE: RSH) scenario would play out to a much greater advantage for Dell than this Wal-Mart strategy. Is this a sign that as consumers we're expected to cheapen our expectations when thinking of Dell? I assure you that is what will happen. I'm expecting to spend about $2000 on a new PC next year. Perhaps it will be a Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) after all.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get to work on these spy drones.

Daily Option Update - March 5, 2007

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.


Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 18.46

Washington Mutual -- (NYSE:WM) implied volatility & put volume indicates Aggressive Risk. WM, a consumer and small business bank with assets of $346 billion, is recently down .87 to $41.71. According to SNL Financial for The Wall Street Journal, WM has loan loss reserves of 0.60%. This is below banks set aside average of 1.09% at the end of last year according to data from 518 publicly traded banks according to SNL. WMcall option volume of 8,889 contracts compares to put volume of 38,848 contracts. WM April option implied volatility of 28 is above its 26-week average of 18 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

MGIC Investment Corp. -- (NYSE:MTG) volatility & put volume elevated suggests hedging of risk. MTG provides private mortgage insurance in the to the home mortgage lending industry.SBSH lowered its price target to $71 on "MTG's '06 10-K, filed yesterday, provided revised guidance regarding C-BASS -- indicating that the 1Q07 earnings contribution from unconsolidated subs will likely be 'materially lower' YOY." MTG call option volume of 2,291 contracts compares to put volume of 9,136 contracts. MTG April option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 28 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Option volume leaders today were: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), New Century (NYSE:NEW), Novastar (NYSE:NFI) & Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).


eBay after the bell 10-6-06: hit by a Sell

eBay couldn't hold the nice run it had this past week and ended the week on a down note. Today ,eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) shares shed $1.07 or 3.51% of their value to close at $29.39, unable to remain above the $30 mark reached yesterday.

The reason for today's sell-off could be attributed to some profit taking, but most likely it was caused by Cantor Fitzgerald initiating coverage on eBay with a Sell recommendation (then why bother, I say). As an aside, I must say that unlike many commentators here of late, I don't believe analysts' recommendations are governed by ulterior motives and politics. I'm of the firm belief that most analysts cover their companies impartially and try to do the best they can. Some are very good and very lucky, some not so much, in either department.

Okay, so back to Cantor Fitzgerald. The analyst, Derek Brown, said that he finds that core eBay has weakened significantly in the past years, with customers -- buyers and sellers -- moving to other ecommerce solutions as their behavior has changed. Brown set a price target at $25 for eBay's shares.

I haven't read Brown's report, so I'm not sure why he came to the conclusion he did. It would therefore be hard for me to disagree and yet, I do. I don't see it happening (despite eBay sellers promising me it is); I still think it is easier for people to go to one site where they can find everything in rather than to different other sites.

Finally, I'll just mention quickly that eBay Express was officially launched in the U.K. on Wednesday.

My take on Hilary Kramer's 10 Stocks to Sell Now

Hilary: great smile, great dimples, and best of all, GREAT calls... (Sorry, I just can't be PC -- not in a blog.)

Hilary Kramer (HK) in her stock blog, HilaryOnStocks, has changed direction and decided to make people money by saving them some money, suggesting it may be time to bail out of certain holdings. Generally speaking, her comments on the 10 stocks she reviewed were very good.

However, I must take exception to the overall principle of trading in and out of stocks because that may not be smart for certain investors. For example, she suggests that Apple may be over, with its long run-up behind it and that taking some profits is in order. I made a similar argument last week.

More in depth review might reveal that if you got in early and live in a high tax state like California you are looking at losing 22% to 24% of your gain to taxes when you add the state tax to the federal capital gains tax and then add up the transaction fees. So while HK is correct that Apple may start moving lower, the question is by how much?

Also, you must consider where you will put the money when you get it. And if you put it in cash or short-term investments, then when will you get back into the market and what will you buy? And you will be putting back 25% less perhaps.

I am not against paying taxes or rotating out of questionable companies, but you must always look at the broad picture as it applies to your own situation.

Here's my take on the 10 stocks she suggests selling:

Home Depot (HD) and KB Homes (KBH): Solid companies and while they my lag for a while, if you got in at the right price they can be good core holdings depending on your personal circumstances.

Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), Coach (COH), Gap (GPS), General Motors (GM): You don't need to bother with them now.

Apple (AAPL) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ): Big maybes.

Krispy Kreme (KKD) and Jet Blue (JBLU): No reason to own in any market!

Also check out my recent posts: "Dividends are very sexy -- no joke" and "A bad rap for a bad market"

Holding on to money-losing stocks? You're not alone

Of the eight widely held stocks we cover at BloggingStocks.com, five have been money-losing investments for years. And with one exception, their prospects are not bright enough to warrant their stock market valuation. Why would investors in these five keep holding on when they could earn 5% risk free in a money market fund?

Since May 2000, these five stocks have lost money for investors (during which time the S&P 500 has fallen 15%):

  • Time Warner: -70%
  • Yahoo: -50%
  • Microsoft: -40%
  • GE: -38%
  • Wal-Mart: -15%

Granted, it's possible to pick other time frames in the last several years during which some of these stocks -- particularly Yahoo and GE -- have performed admirably. But these results make me wonder why people hold on to money-losing investments.

Continue reading Holding on to money-losing stocks? You're not alone

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DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 05:31 AM

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