BBC News reports that another hedge fund has closed down thanks to its failure to bail out of the oil speculation trade that boosted oil to a peak of $147 in July. This is yet another piece of evidence that people like Hank Paulson, who insisted that record oil prices were due to supply and demand, were either being less than honest -- particularly since his former employer Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) was a big beneficiary of this speculation -- or ignorant of reality.

The hedge fund in question this time is Ospraie Fund, which invested in commodities like oil and gold. It "has lost 38% of its value since the start of the year." Gold is down 22% to $800 from its $1,030.80 an ounce high in March. Oil has tumbled 25% to $109 since peaking in July, according to BBC News. But 1440 Wall Street suggests that the biggest commodity culprit in Ospraie's demise was copper's tumble. The lesson here is that if a sufficient number of big money speculators get together and decide to, say, short the dollar and go long commodities, there will seem to them to have safety in numbers.

But when the government started investigating the cause of spiking oil prices, the trade got very unprofitable very fast. As I posted, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently found that 81% of oil trading volume was driven by speculation. Then we witnessed the failure of SemGroup and the indictment of Optiver Holding for manipulating energy prices -- those funds who were too slow to reverse their positions and got creamed.

It feels great to watch stocks rise so much today. After all, the Dow fell 230 points yesterday. I don't have any idea why stocks are moving up and down so much. But it makes me think that the safest bet for short-term traders would be a bet on high volatility.

Meanwhile, I cannot explain why stocks are up 330 points today. Some think it is the $5 a barrel decline in the price of oil. Others think it may be an economic slow down in Europe coupled with its failure to raise interest rates. If Europe's slowdown is starting now and ours has been going on for a year, then perhaps the U.S. is a safer place to invest now because we're a year closer to recovery.

This could make some sense in explaining the strengthening of the dollar relative to the Euro and the Pound. But there is also the plunging of commodity prices more generally. As I posted earlier, this could have to do with a crackdown on speculators and the collapse of SemGroup, a big energy trader. As money goes out of commodities it seems to be heading towards software, housing, airline and even some financial stocks.

In a nutshell, if you believe that the commodity bubble is continuing to burst, it makes sense to invest in all the stocks that have been beaten down in the last year. That is, unless a hurricane shuts down drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

The New York Times reports that demand for commodities in China is slowing down -- dropping from 11% to 9%. And this could be contributing to the plunge in commodity prices (about which I posted here). This could lead to more failed hedge funds and be painful for many companies. But it would be great for consumers.

The Times reports that Chinese factories reported "a plunge in new orders last month. Exports are barely growing. The real estate market is weakening, with apartment prices sinking in southeastern China." And it suggests that slowing Chinese factory demand is leading to price drops in commodities including gasoline, "copper, tin, zinc and aluminum."

Three examples from the Times illustrate the effects of the slowdown:

• Luggage. Union Bags, a Chinese luggage maker, said sales to the U.S. had "dropped 20 percent in the last year." This has led to cutbacks in Union's orders to its local suppliers of "zippers, nylon and polyester."
• Cars. Automobile demand in China is growing more slowly. "J. D. Power and Associates cut its forecast for car sales in China this year to 5.95 million -- still up from 5.42 million last year, but much less of an increase than the company's previous forecast of 6.2 million."

During July, the prices of oil exploration and coal stocks mentioned in my newsletter tumbled precipitously. For example, Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) and Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) lost roughly a quarter of their value by the end of July and Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) which had been up over 40% through June ended July up a relatively paltry 4% and 11% respectively.

I find this interesting because it violates one of the basic theories I have about what moves stock prices. This beat-and-raise theory says that if a company beats earnings estimates and raises its guidance, then the stock will rise. Otherwise it will fall. In the case of these four companies, each of them with the exception of Ultra which did not report, reported doubling or tripling of earnings and raised their guidance.

So why did their stocks fall? In the case of the oil and gas companies, it could be because of declining oil prices. Those peaked at $146 a barrel and recently traded at $127. But I am not aware of any diminution in the price of coal for which demand is strong due to Chinese and Indian infrastructure investment among other factors. Coal is used to make steel and to fire up power plants.

There are many factors that affect oil prices. Fundamental factors such as global supply and demand and dollar moves are often cited. But many also say that traders play a big role in affecting oil prices fluctuations. No doubt, fundamentals are behind oil's long-term uptrend. And it is the dollar's weakness of the past few years that has supported the trend. But short term? Could traders' short covering be the reason behind oil's recent run-up to nearly $150 a barrel?

Perhaps, but that's behind us. Oil prices have retreated more than $20 dollars since. What caused that? Have the fundamentals changed? Some say global demand is bound to slow as the global economy weakens, but others say supply concerns due to geopolitical unrest are also growing. Has the dollar strengthened? A little, but then it declined right back Thursday after a housing report showed recovery is still far off. And what about traders?

Well, here's where The Wall Street Journal as well as Reuters bring an interesting theory. They say that the rise and fall in oil prices coincided with energy company SemGroup L.P.'s (mis)fortunes. SemGroup is a little known private company that transports, stores and distributes crude oil and refined products. It is also the parent of pipeline operator SemGroup Energy Partners L.P. (NADSAQ: SGLP). SemGroup L.P. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Tuesday. According to the Journal, "Changes in its hedging strategies coincided with big moves in oil recently."

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal's "Smartmoney Stock Screen" looks at eight companies whose valuations make them ripe to buy, and they also may be in the sites of corporate buyers. The big eight include Asbury Automotive Group Inc (NYSE: ABG), Crane Company (NYSE: CR), Scholastic Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHL) and The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE: SMG).
• The Wall Street Journal's Walter Mossberg said in the "Personal Technology" column that he cannot recommend Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) MobileMe, as it has "too many flaws to keep its promises".
• The Wall Street Journal also speculated that the collapse this week of SemGroup LP, which is the parent of SemGroup Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: SGLP), may have played a role in the 14% drop in crude oil over the past 10 days.
• In a move that could take advantage of the gap in the financing markets, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) raised $10B to invest in loans backing leveraged buyouts. The fund will reportedly buy senior loans, the Financial Times reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Former American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) chief Hank Greenberg is reportedly in settlement talks with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over charges that Greenberg improperly inflated corporate books to show improved profits, the New York Post said.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal's "Fund Track" reported that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Andrew Cuomo, the New York state Attorney General, is preparing to file civil securities-fraud charges against UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), possibly as early as this week. Sources said the lawsuit may include allegations of malfeasance by senior UBS executives.

WEB SITES:

• Bloomberg reported that money manager John Paulson, the owner of Paulson & Co., is launching a hedge fund that will provide capital to financial firms which have been damaged by the housing crisis. Paulson, who wants to open the fund by December, used bets against the U.S. housing market to help him earn $3.7B in 2007.
• After U.S. lawmakers reached a deal on legislation to alleviate the housing recession, the House of Representatives will today vote on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae -- Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM) -- and Freddie Mac -- Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE). Representative Barney Frank said that the package, which increases the likelihood Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will get the authority to inject capital into the two, is "fully acceptable," Bloomberg reported.
• Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America's 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. Reuters noted that SemGroup LP's parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: SGLP).