The shares of chipmaker Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: CY) are getting hammered today after the company warned that it will swing to a fourth-quarter loss. In a statement, Cypress cited "declining order patterns and turns from all sales channels, all end markets, all geographies, and all of our product lines. In addition, backlog continues to be weak, and we are seeing cancellations and requests for push-outs that are somewhat higher than normal."

The firm now expects to record a quarterly loss of 3 cents to 12 cents per share on sales of $165 million to $180 million. As recently as mid-October, Cypress expected to book a profit of 4 cents to 7 cents per share in the fourth quarter, with sales totaling $194 million to $204 million.

Cypress is hardly the first chip firm to fall on hard times in the current macro environment. The market has already been hit this week with a similar warning from Dow component Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), while National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) slashed its outlook and announced job cuts.

This afternoon, CY is down roughly 20%, and it's trading less than a point above its current annual low of $2.93. The chip company's warning sparked a rush in the options pits; so far, Cypress has seen more than 6 times its average daily put volume cross the tape. The bulk of these bearish bets have changed hands on the November 4 strike, which has seen volume of 2,113 contracts on open interest of 6,509.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

I was checking out Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) today to see how the stock was reacting after its earnings report. At the time I began writing this, the shares were up over 3% to $10.25 per stub; as I was about to send it off to be published, it was up over 5% to $10.49. The market is kidding me, right?

Melly Alazraki reported on the company's data this morning. The $0.20 per share in adjusted earnings booked for the fourth quarter beat expectations by three pennies. Yeah, I know, beating estimates is the big game on Wall Street. And yes, it is a good thing. However, not every earnings-beat is equal. You have to look at each business carefully and evaluate it relative to the macro environment. Applied Materials will be cutting 1,800 jobs. The market likes that, of course, and believes that cost savings will help profits down the line. However, cutting jobs isn't necessarily a sign that a business is about to get stronger; sometimes, it means the opposite. Also, top-line sales declined by double digits, and with bad news coming from Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), we know that the slowdown is going to get worse. Furthermore, the market drop earlier today is confirming that bad times will be with us for a while.

In that context, I can't see buying Applied Materials. I mean, up 5%? I know the argument -- you've got to start discounting better times and pick up shares when their cheap. Yeah, right. It is true that the market will do that at some point but we're not there yet. Back in August, I wrote about Applied Materials' Q3 numbers. The stock was higher at that point, and it was working off a higher 52-week low. Now, things have turned south on both counts. And I think they could go further south. At a time when even buying Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is an exercise in fear-management, I don't think Applied Materials is a tech stock that should be on anyone's list of investment ideas.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

After the closing bell last night, silicon-wafer producer MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) offered a mid-quarter update that's sent the shares reeling into negative territory this morning. The report started auspiciously enough, as CEO Nabeel Gareeb noted that current production rates "could allow us to achieve results in the upper half of our targeted financial range" of $560 million to $620 million in revenue.

His comment seemed to indicate that MEMC might exceed analysts' expected revenue of $596.7 million, as reported by Thomson Financial. But Gareeb then tempered his optimism by adding, "However, there is increased softness in demand from semiconductor applications customers, primarily due to their inventory reduction initiatives. These elements warrant a continued degree of caution in our outlook, given the amount of time left in the quarter."

Additionally, MEMC warned that it expects operating expenses of approximately $43 million for the third quarter, up from its previous projection of $41 million. The increase is largely attributable to one-time, non-cash severance-related expenses.

This post is part of a report entitled "Six-pack of technology favorites." You can read about the other top tech stock picks here.

"I think Wall Street has made a poor assessment of Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI)," says Paul McWilliams. Here's a look at the chip maker from his technology-focused newsletter, Next Inning.

"Analog Device's top line guidance came in a bit below Wall Street expectations. However, I think the problems are between the Hudson and East Rivers and not in Norwood, Massachusetts, the hometown of Analog.

"What Wall Street appears to be missing is that since ADI has sold off some of its lower profit business units, its seasonal sales patterns have changed. ADI is now again driven by industrial market sectors much more than it was even just last year.

"Therefore, its conservative guidance of flat to up 3% sequentially shouldn't have been a big surprise nor a cause for concern. As a matter of fact, with its minimal exposure to PC and consumer markets, I think flat to up 3% is pretty good.

"What Wall Street would be better to focus on are the operational improvements ADI has made. In its July quarter, ADI improved its pro forma operating margin to 26.5% from 26.2% last quarter and again reduced its inventory, which sits now at the lowest level we've seen since 2004.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), a technology company that provides solutions to industries involved with such things as semiconductors, flat panel displays and solar photovoltaic cells, and whose colleagues include KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.

They weren't great. The top line decreased by 28%, coming in at $1.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per diluted share dropped well over 50% to 17 cents. Although these numbers are horrible, it should be noted that the company at least beat estimates of 14 cents per share.

Well, not to be a downer or anything, but Applied Materials is not the tech stock I want to be in right now. It is suffering through a dismal economic environment, and the growth rates just don't look good. Not only do you have these year-over-year declines, but you've also got sequential-quarter statistics showing a negative trend. Plus, new orders are down significantly, and the gross margin took a dive.

Is there any saving grace to the report? Yes. Cash flow from operations was essentially flat over the nine-month timeframe at almost $1.6 billion. Hey, flat is better than a decline, correct?

Semiconductor company Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) reported results for the second quarter, and the stock sold off during the after-hours session on Monday. At one point shares were down 11%.

I can sort of see why this happened. It wasn't an exciting earnings release at all, especially in a bad market. First, the top line decreased by about 2% to $3.35 billion. Earnings from continuing operations on a diluted basis grew by only 5% to 42 cents per share. Operational cash flow declined by 42% to $520 million. Nope, not my kind of earnings release, let me tell you. Texas Instruments doesn't seem to have the right stuff in terms of bottom-line growth. Management pointed out that the challenging economy has led to weak demand. Also, let me add that, according to this article, the results missed estimates by two pennies.

I don't really want to own Texas Instruments here. If I had to buy a tech stock, I'd be more inclined to look at a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Apple also reported earnings on Monday and saw its shares slide after delivering a much stronger quarter than the one delivered by Texas Instruments. That about says it all, doesn't it?

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Lately, there have been some scary stories -- such as in BusinessWeek and Forbes.com -- about the buyout of Freescale, which is a major semiconductor operator (the transaction came in September 2006 at $17.6 billion).

The latest earnings report was anemic. Plus, the company's bonds are selling at distressed levels. In fact, the CEO -- Michel Mayer -- quit his post in February (but don't cry for him as he took millions in a nice payday). And of course, Freescale's key customer, Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT), is ailing.

So, might this prevent further buyout deals in the semiconductor space?

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Semiconductors, ADC Telecomm and Nationwide Financial were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Banc of America upgraded the Semiconductor Sector to Overweight from Market Weight citing indications of a bottom given earnings estimate revision momentum and supply chain inventory levels. The firm upgraded Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Power Integrations (NASDAQ:POWI) and Semtech (NASDAQ:SMTC) to Buy from Neutral and PMC Sierra (NASDAQ:PMCS) and LSI Corp (NYSE:LSI) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of ADC Telecomm (NASDAQ:ADCT) to Buy from Hold as they believe April consensus estimates could prove conservative.
  
• UBS raised Nationwide Financial (NYSE::NFS) to Buy from Neutral and believes a higher offer by Nationwide Mutual is likely.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Westlate Chemical (NYSE:WLK) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) shares are trading higher today after the Semiconductor Industry Association reported that global semiconductor sales rose 1.5% year-over-year in February, helped by growing international demand. The numbers were said to be skewed somewhat in the negative by rapidly declining DRAM prices, but that growth in the overall sector was strong. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SNDK.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.75 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $19.54 earlier this month. SNDK opened this morning at $21.65. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.61 and a high of $22.74. As of 1:15, SNDK is trading at $22.69, up $1.43 (6.7%). The chart for SNDK looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just 7 weeks as long as SNDK is above $17.50 at May expiration. SanDisk would have to fall by more than 22% before we would start to lose money.

NDK hasn't been below $19 at all in the past year and has shown support around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late April) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock looks to be forming right around $20, where the chart is flattening out.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SNDK.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) came out Monday night and warned of lower margins, and while the stock was down in after-hours trading, one might actually make the argument that this might not be such bad news for its core operations. It's just hard to be too much like Dr. Pangloss in what looks, feels, and even smells more and more like a bear market each week. The culprit is listed as "lower than expected NAND flash memory chip prices." So Intel said it is now looking for 54% margins, plus or minus 1%. Its previous guidance was 56%, plus or minus 1%. What is at least a bit of relief here is that Intel said that all other expectations are consistent with the prior guidance given with its last outlook.

I would note that Intel had recently been downgraded at Goldman Sachs and at AmTech. Arguably, this is the second warning if you count last quarter. Its 2% drop is fairly appropriate as that is basically how much the stock is down on the news. Intel closed up 0.2% Monday at $20.01, but it was now seeing shares trade down 2.5% at $19.51 in after-hours evening trades.

If you take this at face value, Intel at least has a robust processor business, or at least it has the best processors in the industry. This news is taking a toll on other semiconductor stocks as well, but as the news bit is specific to NAND flash memory chips, it is hitting those flash memory stocks the worst of the others.

Micron Tech (NYSE: MU) is one that won't be liking this as its turnaround seems to be in jeopardy. This may at least make the company pursue more active issues like divesting some assets. SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is perhaps the pure-play for flash memory stocks, and its shares were actually down almost 3.5% at $22.25 in after-hours trading. That was after already hitting a new 52-week low at the close of $23.05 as its trading range over the last year was $23.40 to $59.75. Spansion Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSN) is another go-to stock in flash memory. Its shares were down almost 3% in after-hours trading at $2.82 after having an almost 6% gain today. Unfortunately, it has had a poor year with its 52-week trading being $2.69 to $12.83.

iSuppli, a niche research firm that focuses on the semiconductor industry, recently published a report on the state of the industry in 2007. The report, an excerpt of which can be found here, is chunk full of info.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), the world's largest semiconductor supplier, has extended its lead over rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), raising its market share to 12.5 percent while AMD dropped out of the top 10. Intel's revenues are expected to rise by almost 8 percent in 2007, far exceeding the growth rate of the entire industry, which iSuppli pegs at around 4 percent.

AMD, on the other hand, has had a rough go of it this year. While making the top 10 list for the first time last year, AMD is looking at a forecast of sales down almost 23 percent.

Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) is higher this morning after the Semiconductor Industry Association announced today that global semiconductor sales rose 2.2% in July. The company also introduced a new line of solar energy modules over the weekend. If you think this means that AMAT won't slip too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on the stock.

After hitting a one-year high of $23.00 in early August, shares fell sharply back to previous support levels just above $20. AMAT opened this morning at $21.49. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.40 and a high of $21.92. As of 11:25, AMAT is trading at $21.91, up $0.55 (2.6%). The chart for AMAT looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.1% return in just 7 weeks as long as AMAT is above $20 at October expiration. Applied Materials would have to fall by more than 8% before we would start to lose money.

AMAT hasn't been below $20 by more than a few cents since early June and has shown support around $20.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the tech market turns bearish, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by its 200 day moving average, which is around $19 and rising. Plus, AMAT is not scheduled to report earnings again until November, which is after expiration.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

Texas Instruments Incorporated (NYSE: TXN), the wireless semiconductor giant, reported results which indicate the semi recovery is still in place, albeit the numbers were a bit light.

Texas Instruments reported sequential revenue growth of 5% for its semiconductor business versus a 17% drop last year. The company is forecasting an increase of 6% for the September quarter, but book-to-bill is only at 1.0, so that will tame investors' expectations. Since announcing the bottom of the semiconductor trough in the first quarter of this year, Texas Instruments is up to $38 from $30. Therefore, most of the easy money has been made.

I'd wait for a consolidation in semiconductor stocks and the market in general before jumping into Texas Instruments. The company is in a great strategic position but will likely be dead money until the fall, as investors will want to wait to see how the U.S. and the global economy is doing for the back-to-school season and, more importantly, the holiday season.

By October, if the consumer hasn't completely rolled over, it will be time to take a look at Texas Instruments.

We have been blogging positively about Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) since May. However, with ho-hum results reported last night and recent stock appreciation, it may be time to look elsewhere for profits in the semiconductor space.

Intel reported very solid results but not strong enough to drive the stock much higher from here. As we've been blogging since Q1 earnings release, Intel's revenue and gross margins were about to ramp higher, but from listening to last night's results that growth is going to be muted. The company expects only 6% yoy revenue growth, little improvement in gross margin and free cash flow generation which will be difficult to forecast.

The most disturbing aspect of last night's call was Intel's forecast for flat operating expenditures for 2008. This means Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NYSE: AMD) is proving a more formidable competitor and not going to disappear as it has in the past when Intel has targeted market share. This could mean little-to-no revenue growth for 2008.

Also, stock repurchased during the quarter was a measly $100 million. Not a good number. The combination of massive slowdown in share repurchase and flat operating expenditure guidance means Intel is becoming concerned about its sources and uses of cash.

I would take the profits and move elsewhere. It looks like National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM) currently has the best growth profile in the semi space.

As the market rallies and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) gets one upgrade after another, do not forget about National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM).

National Semiconductor generated 62.5% gross margins in the most recent quarter, a huge number when considering the company is just coming out of a cyclical bottom. The trough gross margin in the most recent downturn was just 59%, an amazingly high number.

National Semi's ability to manage gross margins has increased its ability to generate cash during weak times and is the reason for the current $2.4 billion repurchase plan that was just announced. National Semi's market cap is just $9 billion.

Higher-end valued products are leading to higher ASPs and volume increases which translate into higher revenue, with billings up 16% and bookings up 33%. ROIC is above 20% and will be able to be maintained at that level, according to management.

National Semi's number are looking too powerful to pass up.