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Posts with tag senior citizens

Should Congress start a 'U.S. Society Bank'?

With the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion intervention bill -- commonly called the bailout bill -- nearing President Bush's desk for review and signature into law, a compelling question has risen in economic and taxpayer circles.

Given that the U.S taxpayer is funding the recovery, if not the bailout, of financial institutions and banks, are banks and financial institutions doing enough to show their gratitude to the people of the United States, the banking sector's lender -- and investor -- of last resort?

One standpoint argues they aren't, so says economist Richard Felson, and here's what Felson would like to see: In addition to equity stakes in each company that receives taxpayer assistance, the U.S Congress should require the company/bank to pay an annual fee to fund the administrative costs of a bank for low-income citizens and senior citizens.

Continue reading Should Congress start a 'U.S. Society Bank'?

The economics of Social Security, Medicare, and you

With a sluggish economy, uncertain job growth, the most serious housing recession in more than 20 years, record oil and gasoline prices, ramping food costs, and a foreign policy landscape that's challenging (to say the least), decision makers in the United States, public and private, have more than enough to be concerned about, near-term, most analysts and citizens would agree.

Still, the above wasn't enough to prevent the annual "alarm sounding" about long-term concerns, such as Social Security and Medicare, the likes of which occurred again this week when the Social Security Trustees released their revised 2008 actuarial balance, which is a status report.

Moreover, while it's never prudent to ignore the tax and benefits implications of entitlement programs as large as Social Security and Medicare, it's important that investors and taxpayers also keep in mind one undeniable reality pertaining to statistical analysis of this sort. Namely, that we're dealing with longitudinal projections stretching out decades in which -- if any one of 20 variables (or more) change -- receipts and outlays would change substantially.

Continue reading The economics of Social Security, Medicare, and you

Stryker (SYK) is hardly striking out

In a choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market, discretion dictates that one looks for companies where the demographics are running in the company's favor. Health care services in the United States is one such sector, and in this category, Stryker Corp (NYSE: SYK) is worth an evaluation.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) is a leading provider of artificial hip, prosthetic knee and trauma products.As one might sense, orthopedic implant demand is robust and looks to remain so in the immediate years ahead, and probably beyond. Not only because the U.S.'s population is aging, but also the population in key international markets.

Analysts see sustained, double-digit earnings growth driven by the above demand and by new product launches. Further, Stryker also has modest pricing power, and analysts also see market share gains in selected business segments. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SYK are $2.40/$2.88.

The risks? A negative change in Medicare reimbursement rates would hurt Stryker's results. The company also remains vulnerable to the emergence of a 'game changer' -- an innovative product launch by a competitor in one of its tech-intensive business lines.

The First Call mean rating for SYK is: Buy [22 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $82.00 [high: $90, low: $74].

Stock Analysis: Stryker is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from SYK's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $48.

Humana (HUM): a Medicare play, and more

As noted, given the current choppy/consolidating market conditions, adding a few defensive plays is a prudent strategy. Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) is an insurer worth an evaluation.

Humana's Medicare and Medicare prescription business, 50-state presence, likely substantial membership growth, and cost controls make it an "insurance company of significance." Another major positive: the currently underserved Medicare population, and an expanding Medicare demographic, the latter courtesy of the U.S. baby boom generation's retirement. HUM closed Thursday up $3.43 to $76.93.

The qualifiers? Competition on HUM's commercial business side is a hurdle, but overall, the risk/return for this stock is favorable.

[Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.]

Technically, Humana's chart looks strong. The stock did straddle its 50-day moving average this summer, but has since remained solidly above it, while also clearing $65-$68 resistance. With a new 52-week high recently in place and a P/E of 21, HUM is not cheap, but it's a reasonable price to pay for this safety-and-growth hybrid.

Stock Analysis: Humana is a low-risk stock. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from HUM's shares. A preferred entry price if one were to buy would be below $75, if the market presents that opportunity. Sell / Stop Loss: $47.

Manor Care Buyout: Carlyle gives no premium for old fogies

This was an odd morning. I am not sure if the weird factor was that a senior care company was finally being acquired or that there was no real premium to the deal. The Carlyle Group is acquiring Manor Care (NYSE:HCR) in a $4.9 billion acquisition, or $6.3 billion if you include the debt assumption.

Shareholders will receive $67 per share, assuming shareholders approve it. "No-Premium" deals are harder for new shareholders to stomach, but older shareholders will be able to cash out since the stock jumped roughly 20% back in April after word of a deal had come to light when the company announced it was exploring strategic alternatives.

Manor Care employs almost 60,000 people and operates more than 500 facilities in nursing and rehabilitation centers, assisted living facilities, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and hospice and home care agencies. If you consider the looming retirement of the baby boomers, all of these facilities offer a considerable value.

It sure seems like the price of poker, or bingo in this case, just went up. You expect more consolidation in a cottage industry that is about to become a secular group.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.


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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 08:12 PM

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