Updating the story with the final numbers heading into the week end. The market looked sad again today, so I thought I would spot-check Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see if my picks, (suggested watchlist considerations) were holding up...so far so good, sort of...
The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.
1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield. (NOW $66.53 -- up 3.4%) finished at $66.26 -- up 2.98%.
2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.( NOW 42.58 -- down 7%) finished at $41.78 -- down 8.78%.
3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield. (NOW $47.51 -- down 3%) finished at $47.56 -- down 2.96%.
After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).
I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.
GM stock closed yesterday at $12.81 but today traded down to a new 52-week low of $11.21; as of 1:15, it is at $11.51, down nearly 10%.
GM is trading at a 30 year low. "Today's drop came after a Goldman Sachs analyst cut his rating for GM to "Sell" from "Neutral" and his price target to $11 from $16, saying things could still get worse for the North American automotive industry as a whole."
I wonder if he read my post yesterday . . . probably not. I am not a big fan of analysts as a group but this did not take a crystal ball. Barron's should do a follow-up story explaining how their crystal ball got so fogged up.
A recent Barron's had a cover story featuring General Motors (NYSE: GM) which I have been pondering for a while. Somehow the story did not get me all that excited despite the boldness of the headline reading "BUY GM."
More attuned to the words that followed -- "GM is a risky bet" -- I wondered why they would not feature something with possibly equal potential and far less risk. If you read the journal cover to cover, you might have taken note of the fact that there were two articles highlighting General Electric (NYSE: GE).
In the first, Michael Santoli extols the virtues of owning GE compared to a 10 year Treasury note which offers security but no upside potential. He mentions the high yield, low P/E, strong businesses and the fact that current CEO Jeffrey Immelt bought shares in the open market for $3.5 million.
It's time to make some major changes, something I have said before. I am not the first to suggest this and I am quite sure I will not be the last. General Electric (NYSE: GE) needs to take some serious action to add shareholder value. Apparently, Jeffrey Immelt was very embarrassed after last quarter's earnings announcement, when the company reported disappointing earnings following Immelts' own earlier statement that they would hit their targets.
After GE sells its kitchen and laundry appliances, which is on the block now, it will still own business-producing aircraft engines, locomotives, electric distribution and control equipment, generators and turbines, and medical-imaging equipment. GE is also one of the preeminent financial services companies in the U.S. Commercial finance, consumer finance, and equipment financing and leasing together comprise the company's largest segment. Here is the formal list from the company web site:
I have been following General Electric (NYSE: GE) for years, believing it was a sadly underperforming stock with high quality businesses but a lackluster management team who at least from outward appearances are just caretakers. They have added almost no shareholder value in ten years in the form of stock appreciation and in fact have gone down lately, as the chart indicates.
Although I have been interested in the stock, I was always able to find something more compelling and I always wanted a bargain. When it was $40, I had a buy order in at $36, then lowered it to $34, then $32, and finally $30, where we bought in on Friday. Today it touched a 52-week low of $29.78 but is trading over $30 as of 2:30. (UPDATE: closing price $30.33 up $0.27, +0.90%)
These past weeks, the deteriorating stock market that responds to expectations of slower or no economic growth in 2008, continued high oil prices, sagging housing market, high debt consumers and the financial industry quagmire, got me thinking about "my pal Warren" again.
It's times like these, when we are looking for a solid footing in the investment world, the few people with positive track records -- measured in decades, not years -- are worth examining once more.
Last year I started a series of stories on Warren Buffett's very basic investment cornerstones. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) has such a track record. Today, given how many companies are up to their penthouse executive suites in debt, I thought I would continue.
The subject of debt is a simple one. Companies that carry excessive debt on their books are not as good as companies that have cash sitting around. Debt can be a drag on earnings, reduce the company's flexibility and opportunity in a slowing economy, and has all the negative impacts to a company that it does to an individual household.
Do you have a good financial advisor? They are hard to come by, from my experience. If you are in business you probably get somebody fresh out of business school (if that) calling at least every other day. I am very cynical about the entire financial industry and think that much of what passes for good professional advice is neither good nor professional. I harped on this a little yesterday in Sunday Funnies: Analysts must have a great sense of humor.
If one were to measure many of our foremost fianancial institutions by how well they manage their own affairs, then most of them would come up wanting. The investment banks, ratings agencies, mortgage banks and even the federal watchdogs have made a poor showing over the past year and we are all paying for it.
Recently I made the acquaintance of a Michael G., who is a broker with a major financial institution that is advising a good friend of mine and seems to contradict my generally negative opinion of the industry. He was the seed that grew into my Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS) recommendation and last month I was happy to post Chasing Value: PDS up 75% in Q1, announces distribution.
In my conversation with Mike, Seaspan Corp (NYSE: SSW) was his latest intrigue. According to AOL Money & Finance data, Seaspan maintains a fleet of about 30 vessels. Its charter operations are managed by sister company Seaspan Management Services Limited. Both companies are a part of The Washington Marine Group, a group of companies that focus on marine transportation and ship building.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner among only four that had appreciated. The following indicates commonly used metrics for tracking and comparing stocks.
Reviewing the stocks in order of lowest to highest P/E ratio (TTM):
It is interesting to note that only two of the eight have a below market P/E ratio, while only two are average. On the other hand, four are double the average and beyond, which leads me to believe the overall market consensus is that it is still very early in the game for these stocks and their futures are yet to be determined. The P/E ratios of the four are also the most volatile as are the stock prices.
Every time I see a story about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) I am infuriated and bewildered. How in the world can a 13 year old company have a P/E ratio of 70 and $32 billion capitalization on 37% year over year growth. The top line growth is great and so is the growth in net earnings but does it justify a P/E of 70?
Yesterday Amazon impressed Wall Street by beating expectations in many areas. However, two areas that disappointed were it's reduced earnings projections for the year and a lack of transparency or specifics in certain segments of its enterprise. Also if earnings were lowered by 4% to 6% then why is the stock only down 3%?
The stock is down about $2 from yesterday's close of $81 fluctuating in the the high 70's. From my perspective the stock is way too high and the limited number of shareholders is still holding up the price. Last year I wrote Who owns Amazon.com - really? and not much has changed in this regard.
Since I have been a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), I have enjoyed reading with great interest the musings of company chairman Warren Buffett as he gives almost a play-by-play review of the year in his letter to shareholders. He writes in a tone I would compare to Will Rogers, the writer, actor, comedian, cowboy and former mayor of Beverly Hills.
"My pal Warren" highlights both the triumphs and disasters of the year and his own perspective of the State of the Union and the economy like only he can. I strongly recommend investors take the time to read his letter(s).
One of the most often referred to items in Buffett's letters is regarding the quality of the management at each of the companies that Berkshire owns, or has major stock holdings in. There are many shrewd investors who will make a convincing argument that the quality of management is the highest priority.
He glowingly speaks of the wisdom, integrity and hard work of his management partners. He openly states that one reason that most of Berkshire acquisitions tend to work so well is the mutual appreciation of these character traits they all share. Unlike many companies that look to make money by shaking up the management structure, Buffett bases his investment strategy on keeping the strong management that built the enterprise in place.
It was June 7, 2006 when I set up a tracking portfolio for our great eight stocks. AOL Money & Finance started BloggingStocks with a focus on these companies based on investor interest. Today, they still stimulate a lot of interest, and comments.
The following share prices are from the original tracking date now updated to last Friday's close, April 11, 2008. Earnings season is upon us again. The Iraq war is still in the headlines, as are the presidential elections, energy prices, recession fears and our latest calamity -- the shameful Washington/Wall Street axis of financial evil. Here are the BloggingStocks eight:
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was $60.00 and is up to $147.14 gaining 145%.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was $32.00 and is down to $30.87 losing 3.35%.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) was $34.50 and is down to $32.05 losing 7.1%.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was $380.00 and is up to $457.45 gaining 20.38%.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was $22.50 and is up to $28.28 gaining 25.69%.
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) was $17.50 and is down to $14.27 losing 18.46%.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) was $47.00 and is up to $54.80 gaining 16.6%.
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was $31.00 and is down to $28.34 losing 8.58%.
So after 22 months we find four stocks are up and four stocks are down. Apple is the clear winner and remains the company to watch going forward. New trend-setting products are introduced regularly and few companies can match its inventiveness or marketing genius. Steve Jobs has hit a grand slam. Microsoft, the perennial cash generating machine, came in second with very strong results given the current state of the economy.
Among the surprises and the one I have taken the most flack for is that Google has not done very well in my eyes. It has been highly volatile and makes for a good trading stock, but if you add the dividend of 3.48% to Wal-Marts appreciation you have about the same growth with one tenth the downside risk.
eBay and GE are remarkable for having achieved nothing over our review period, and although they are down now I consider them break-even investments because they have been trading a few bucks higher and a few lower the entire period. Lots of promise, little results.
Lastly, Time Warner and Yahoo! are big disappointments. Time Warner (owner of BloggingStocks) has a new CEO and change is in the air. Yahoo! is in Microsoft's cross-hairs and looks like it will be something else in a few months. Ironically the two companies are in the midst of discussions to find a way to help each other out of their stagnation. I hope they succeed. Both have great franchises that are struggling to gain traction. Both must contend with Google and Microsoft.
Going forward Apple may be the best bet and Microsoft will probably continue to mint money. The others may just tread water for a while.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY, and TWX.
We have seen this play before, and there are two scenarios as to how it could end. Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is being challenged like never before, having saturated the market place in some locations it is now facing the challenges of selling expensive coffee in a slowing economy.
Would you rather pay $4 for a cup of coffee or a gallon of gas? You can find cheaper coffee but you have few options to find cheaper fuel. Amid the already difficult operating environment Starbucks is faced with competition from the largest restaurant chain in the world, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD). McDonald's is looking to steal its morning thunder with competitive offerings at a far lower pricing structure. The threat is very real no matter what spin Starbucks puts on it.
This brings to mind two similar situations both involving Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and past competitors. Early on there were two word processing programs that together probably had 90% market share. Those were Wordperfect and Wordstar. Both of them were fine programs offering strong features, and now they are nowhere. Microsoft displaced both of them with MS-Word integrated with their Office suite of products, and is now king.
Recently CNN/Money posted an article called Who gets rich off $3 gas - who doesn't, which I thought I would bring to your attention. The rising cost of gasoline at the pump, now $4 in some places, is hurting many people on fixed incomes, like seniors and students, and those commuting long distances to work, or for work.
There is plenty of public fury to go around and while OPEC and the big oil companies get a lot of the blame, your local gasoline station owner has to face the heat close up and personal, even though on this food chain they benefit the least from rising prices.
The rescuing of the domestic financial markets (banks and Wall Street investment houses) by sacrificing treasury notes, exacerbating deficits, all the while lowering the prime rate and discount rate, have pushed oil prices higher, as oil producers to their chagrin, are paid in devalued dollars and are trying to maintain equilibrium.
There must a few other market saps out there like me who are wondering why Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) closed yesterday at $5.91 per share when it has been reported continuously for the last 72 hours that JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) was only paying $2 per share to take over the company. Now it is being reported that the figure is $2.34 -- Oh boy!
I say market saps because I hold the stock and could sell it for more than the $2 but I don't. Why not? What am I hoping for? Until this morning there has not even been the slightest rumor that some white knight will come to the rescue and acquire the company for more than the measly $238 to $276 million price tag being discussed.
Yesterday I wrote that what "JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is paying for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) would not have been enough to buy the brand name last year, never mind the whole company." This being the case, I would love to see the line by line worksheet that the negotiators (some might call them scoundrels) assisted by the Federal Reserve Board worked up to determine the acquisition price. I understand that JPM is assuming a mountain of liabilities but I thought that the Fed has given JPM assurances that they would cover short term losses. In the long run, some of that bad paper is going to be worth billions of dollars.
Updating the story with the final numbers heading into the week end. The market looked sad again today, so I thought I would spot-check Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see if my picks, (suggested watchlist considerations) were holding up...so far so good, sort of...
It was only yesterday that I posted 
It's time to make some major changes, something I have said before. I am not the first to suggest this and I am quite sure I will not be the last. 
These past weeks, the deteriorating stock market that responds to expectations of slower or no economic growth in 2008, continued high oil prices, sagging housing market, high debt consumers and the financial industry quagmire, got me thinking about "my pal Warren" again.
About a month ago I posted 
Every time I see a story about 
We have seen this play before, and there are two scenarios as to how it could end. 
Recently CNN/Money posted an article called 
There must a few other market saps out there like me who are wondering why 
Earnings preview for Ford
Apple shares rise on report Steve Jobs is free of cancer
Toyota whups GM in the first half of 2008
