Minyanville Professor David Miller dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Professor Miller,
I just saw news of Merck & Co., Inc.(NYSE: MRK)'s and Schering Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP)'s Vytorin not meeting their goal of heart study. Approximately 40% of Schering Plough's profit comes from this joint venture. Do you think pharmaceutical companies put too many eggs in one basket? Do they have a choice?
Minyan T.
MT,
They do have a choice, but the decision is to focus only on blockbuster drugs – which are a dying breed in this age of increased focus on personalized medicine. But the study is not as big of a disaster as some are saying. The main goal of aortic thickening is not as important to this drug as reductions in atherosclerotic events, which was positive in favor of Vytorin.
Basically, MRK/SGP tried to extend the market for Vytorin by this study in a place few thought it would work. They overextended, which is the bad news. The good news is the study confirmed the drug works to reduce cardiac events related to fat in the arteries, which is what the drug is primarily prescribed for.
Stock futures were higher this morning after Bank of America joined recent financials and topped Wall Street estimates. Also pushing futures higher is a deal in the pharma sector with Roche bidding nearly $44 billion for the rest of Genentech. However, both Merck and Schering-Plough said they'll postpone reporting their financial results after the close; Apple will also be reporting results then. Finally, oil prices came off a six-week low and are trading back above $130 a barrel due to escalating Middle East tensions. Higher oil prices could dampen the mood on the Street.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), the biggest U.S. consumer bank and home lender, said profit fell 41% to $3.41 billion, or 72 cents a share, much better than analysts estimates of 21 cents according to Bloomberg. The bank curtailed loan losses, adding $2.2 billion to loan loss reserves. The bank has completed the purchase of Countrywide Financial Corp. on July 1. With these results, BAC joins other big banks that have recently reported better-than-expected results. BAC shares are up 8.6% in premarket trading.
Roche Holding on Monday said it was offering $43.7 billion to take over the remaining 44.1% shares of Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) for $89 per share, 8.8% above DNA's closing price Friday. DNA shares are up nearly 18% in premarket trading to $96.50.
Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) said Monday morning it settled its fight for control of the board with billionaire investor Carl Icahn. The board will expand to 11 members to include Icahn and the remaining two seats will be filled by the board upon the recommendation of its nominating and governance committee. In addition, Icahn, who owns about 5% on Yahoo common shares, agreed to withdraw his nominees for consideration at the annual meeting and to support the board's nominees. YHOO shares are declining 2% in premarket trading.
Drug companies have never liked the FDA. Why should a government agency tell them whether their drugs are safe or effective? The FDA approval process can be a long one, and often new treatments are turned down.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, the head of Schering-Plough (NYSE:SGP) believes that an "intensifying focus on safety and a diminished tolerance for side effects at the Food and Drug Administration have dramatically lowered the odds that the drugs would make it to market -- at least not without a lot of extra time and money."
Perhaps if pharmaceutical companies had a better track record for safety, the process would not to be so long. It is not that long ago that the FDA discovered that anti-depressants could lead to suicidal thoughts. More recently the agency warned that anemia treatments including Aranesp, Epogen and Procrit increased the risk of strokes and heart attacks.
Drug company earnings may be hurt by a long FDA approval process, but, without the current system there would likely be an increase in deceased patients.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
National City (NYSE: NCC) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley due to valuation and the possibility the bank could be bought. The broker reiterated its $10 price target.
After Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) reported such strong earnings and sales Wednesday, many believe it was Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone that was partly responsible for that. Some say that the introduction of the iPhone in June brought attention to smartphones. Meanwhile, there are reports that there is a shortage of iPhones in Apple's stores in the U.S. Many speculate Apple may be phasing out the existing models in preparation for new ones to work on 3G netwroks.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) - According to The Wall Street Journal, GM may take on more of parts maker Delphi's pension liabilities as it tries to help it emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It's interesting to hear this especially two days after GM posted 19% decline in sales in March compared to a year ago period. How can the already struggling automaker, seeing its sales drop that much, take on such a liability?
Today marked the end of the first quarter of 2008, and the markets ended on an up-note today. The gains in the DJIA today were within a few points of closing up for the month of March 2008. The DJIA hasn't had a positive month since October 2007.
One of the premiere helping hands came from Hank Paulson's proposals that would regulate more players in the financial services industry ahead. Another note was that the Chicago Purchasing managers Index actually gained from 44.5 in February to 48.2 in March, also above the 47.3 estimates. Below are the unofficial closing levels for the DJIA:
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) announced today that it plans to reorganize its consumer credit card business into two parts, Consumer Banking and Global Cards. Analysts doubt the move will eventually result in a spin-off of the unit. The regionalized restructuring will allow more localized control which should enable Citigroup to target international markets more effectively.
Schering-Plough fell $5, nearly 26%, to $14.47 in early afternoon trading while Merck plunged $6.67, or 15%, to $37.84. As the New York Times and other media outlets noted, the news from the American College of Cardiology couldn't have been much worse for investors.
A scientific panel said the drugs failed to slow the growth of plaques in arteries associated with heart attacks and strokes. It also urged physicians and patients to "rely more heavily on older cholesterol-lowering drugs called statins, which have proven benefits and can be cheaper," according to the Times.
For Schering-Plough, the results are potentially devastating because both drugs account for about 70% of the company's profit, according to analysts' cited by the paper. You have to wonder how much longer Schering-Plough can remain independent.
About the only winners from this mess are the media companies. Those annoying commercials for the drugs helped fatten their bottom lines during a period of uncertain consumer spending. If the companies have any hope of salvaging these products, they are going to need to open up their checkbooks and buy lots and lots of advertising. Freelance journalist Jonathan Berr writes and edits the blog Ketchup and Eggs.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Schering-Plough, Vodafone and Tibco were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) to Neutral from Buy following the panel discussion suggestion that doctors cut use of Vytrorin, Zetia. Shares were also cut at Lehman to Equal Weight from Overweight and at Cowen to Neutral from Outperform.
Morgan Stanley lowered Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) to Underweight from Overweight as they believe the European Commission will aggressively lower mobile termination rates to cost to improve competition. Jefferies downgraded shares of Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) to Underperform from Hold as they believe the economy will catch up with the company in the coming months.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Goldman removed Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) from its Conviction Buy List.
Thomson (NYSE: TOC) was cut to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
Broadpoint downgraded Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) to Buy from Strong Buy.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the bad news is relentless, and people are discouraged.
Each day seems to be filled with so much disappointment. The American Axle (NYSE: AXL) (Cramer's Take) strike, for example, has now pretty much shut down General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take), and I see no signs that AXL can defeat the union. Given how heavily dependent the Midwest region is on GM for steady income, this one can only exacerbate the terrible real estate market and hence the terrible mortgage delinquencies that pockmark Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.
Or the loss of the Absolut brand for Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take). Fortune needed to win this one because its home improvement business is falling off a cliff. This was a vain attempt to diversify a division that has always helped the company in tough times.
Or the Vytorin studies, nothing new, as we knew that parts of the medical community doesn't approve of the drug, but the analysts had held out hope and we have and are going to see repeated downgrades of the stock. I am telling subscribers of Action Alerts PLUS that Schering (NYSE: SGP) (Cramer's Take) stock, at $16 -- where it is surely headed -- has now lost more than half its value, which reflects the pulling of the drug. As 50% of the company's earnings are reportedly from the drug, perhaps that's a fitting decline. I think SGP is worth a lot more because of the purchase of Oraganon. I have been very wrong. My solace: So many others have been, too.
Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) is recently at $15.80 in pre-open trading, below its close of $19.47.
A panel of cardiologists called on physicians to sharply curtail their use of cholesterol-lowering drugs Vytorin (combination of Merck's (NYSE: MRK) Zocor an SGP's Zetia) and Zetia after a clinical study showed the drugs didn't work better than less expensive statin drugs.
SGP April option implied volatility of 58 is above is 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Merck (NYSE: MRK) is recently trading at $39.85 in pre-open trading, below its close of $44.51.
A panel of cardiologists called on physicians to sharply curtail their use of cholesterol-lowering drugs Vytorin (combination of Merck's Zocor and Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) Zetia) and Zetia after a clinical study showed the drugs didn't work better than less expensive statin drugs.
MRK announced, based on the recommendation of the Steering Committee for ACHIEVE (An Assessment of Coronary Health Using Intima-Media Thickness Endpoint for Vascular Effects), further patient enrollment in the study has been put on hold.
MRK April and May option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)'s Vikram Pandit was brought in to make changes at the struggling bank, and that's exactly what he's doing (or at least trying). After much management changes the past weeks, today the financial services company unveiled a restructuring plan that includes setting up an independent credit-card unit and overhauling consumer banking along geographical, rather than product, lines.
Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) stock is dropping nearly 17% and Merck (NYSE: MRK) is dropping over 10% in premarket trading after a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that doctors should cut their use of cholesterol drugs Vytorin -- a combination of Merck's Zocor and SGP's Zetia -- and Zetia.
Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) is buying Bentley Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: BNT) for $360 million in cash, or $15.02 a share, in a move to expand operations in Spain. Bentley's drug delivery business will be spun off to shareholders prior to the Teva transaction. The purchase price represents a 9% premium to Bentley's closing stock price Friday of $13.74.
Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) was downgraded to "equal-weight" from "overweight" at Lehman Brothers according to247wallst.com. The financial website also reported that Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) was started as "overweight" at Lehman.
Briefing.comreports that Morgan Stanley upgraded Vodafone (NYSE:VOD) from "overweight" to "underweight".
Stock futures were higher this morning after Bank of America joined recent financials and topped Wall Street estimates. Also pushing futures higher is a deal in the pharma sector with Roche bidding nearly $44 billion for the rest of Genentech. However, both Merck and Schering-Plough said they'll postpone reporting their financial results after the close; Apple will also be reporting results then. Finally, oil prices came off a six-week low and are trading back above $130 a barrel due to escalating Middle East tensions. Higher oil prices could dampen the mood on the Street.
Drug companies have never liked the FDA. Why should a government agency tell them whether their drugs are safe or effective? The FDA approval process can be a long one, and often new treatments are turned down.
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