If you're a stock trader, then this post is not for you because these stock picks are long-term bets for people looking to beat the traders using the best time-tested strategies. We have been in a very volatile market as of late. It has knocked down many quality companies creating opportunities.

Today I ran a stock screen using six value metrics to find big companies with low stock prices. I found a few dozen, but selected the household names.

All it takes is one story to ignite the market, reverse fortune and increase volatility. In the past two weeks this has happened a lot, as the tug-of-war between bulls and bears plays out. The fervor created by headlines portrays investors with little conviction about what to do with their money.

Inflation or deflation, what can we look forward to? Is China going to blow-up its economy with its very own housing bubble? Will Greece default and others follow? Will BP p.l.c. (BP) stock fall deeper than its undersea gushing Gulf of Mexico oil well, and take other oil service companies down with it?

Does any of this matter -- yes and no.

Voltaire said, "Common sense is not so common" and George Bernard Shaw commented that having " ...enough of it was genius."

This reminds me of Warren Buffet, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) or Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Inc. (AAPL) that have both displayed plenty of the former and arrived at the latter in their business pursuits.

Derivatives like Collateral Debt Obligations, or CDO's, and Credit Default Swaps, get their value from something else entirely: total hype in an environment of smoke and mirrors.

It turns out that if you build layer upon layer of derivatives until you have no idea what the original underlying value truly is, it becomes so convoluted that a genius can't comprehend it at all. It is self evident that nobody could even determine all the counter-party risk.

One of my 2010 stock picks seems to be adrift closer to its 52-week low ($11.52 July 8, 2009) on a long slow downtrend. On June 2, 2010 E-Trade (ETFC) did a reverse 10 for 1 stock split and is now trading back in the teens, having closed last Friday at $14.06. For the time being, it is trading under the symbol ETFCD.

This allows many pension funds and other institutions to hold positions in the stock that they could not before when it was under $5.00 per share (significantly) due to restrictive investment guidelines.

E-Trade management may have been counting on this to inject some life in the stock or at a minimum some additional support. This has not been the case as the stock continues to erode with the other financial stocks.

During the ongoing environmental disaster caused by BP plc (BP) that is spewing thousands of barrels of oil a day into the Gulf of Mexico (only now reducing the spill rate), there have been many calls to have the federal government take over the cap and recapture effort. This is a very lame idea.

First of all, nobody has more incentive in bringing this disaster to an end then BP because no entity has suffered more financially or seen its reputation eroded faster.

Stocks have fallen over the past month and certain stocks have fallen considerably. If you have lost equity recently and can find similarly positioned stocks, it may be wise to consider some lateral moves. Selling one stock and buying something comparable allows you to claim a loss while still remaining fully invested.

In this way you do not have to observe the 30-day rule where you cannot claim a loss in a stock sold today if you buy it back until after 30 days have past. In 30 days the market opportunity to repurchase the shares of the company you sold at good price may have also past.

The endless oil rising from the floor of the Gulf of Mexico has sunk BP (BP) stock; investors fly away, while the vultures are circling above.

It is sad to learn of BP's poor adherence to basic safety precautions and the conflicts between managers on the drilling rig. It appears from the news reports that have trickled out that this mess was created by more than damaged equipment and poor decisions. The actual decision-making process on the leased Transocean (RIG) platform was faulty from the beginning. Sadly BP is not alone in this regard -- just the most recently exposed.

We can make this short and sweet: buying utilities pays off in many ways that other investments do not. Utilities pay regular dividend distributions that are higher than most stocks, bonds, Treasuries, and certificates of deposit. In these volatile times, utility stocks add stability to your portfolio and moderate the wild swings. And, here is the kicker that everyone but day traders will appreciate: long term returns beat all of the major indices over time.

The following charts and stocks will further make the case.

Perhaps the European Union was doomed from the start and it just took a decade for the more productive member states to realize it.

If you went into a business with a bad partner is there any way for it to work? Inevitably there will be a split and that might be the case for the EU members and the battered euro.

Regardless of the end result shrewd investors should be on the lookout for stock bargains in large successful European companies undermined by the failure of the monetary system. The following three stocks are examples worth considering.

The twelve super caps are down to seven: Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, Johnson & Johnson, China Mobile, PetroChina, Microsoft and ExxonMobil. Five are American companies and two are Chinese. The five U.S.-based enterprises have historically strong management teams and balance sheets. If this was the only criteria, I might take pause when considering the two Chinese companies only because I do not know enough about them to make a judgment, except that they have been very successful.

"My pal Warren" placed a large bet on PetroChina (PTR), which he has since sold off, but he always makes a big deal about management, so we will give these two the benefit of the doubt. The two also pay the highest yields among the group.

So where do we stand today? We'll stick with all seven and here is why.

The market continues to be very volatile and trending down. When the seas are this turbulent you want to be on the biggest ships and thus I continue my review of the super cap stocks. This time, I'm going to examine return-on-equity (ROE) and return on-invested-capital (ROIC).

I started with the 12 highest valued companies but remained with 10 after running them through several screens. Among those 10 super, caps the company that is producing the highest returns is Microsoft (MSFT).

For the past few weeks the stock market has been volatile and the "I told you so bears" are coming out in droves to pat themselves on the back. Well, I'm not a stock market bull but I think they are full of it!

The market would still be up if not for the black swans popping up all over. The disaster befalling the Europeans under mountains of debt, plus the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico running unabated, added to the colossal pending legislation to rein in Wall Street at the same time that Goldman Sachs has been threatened by the SEC and the DOJ is leaning on the rest of the street has given those already looking to make their exit plenty of reasons. However, it is not the over all economy that is the reason; that continues to improve.

For weeks, Goldman Sachs has been swinging in the wind as the SEC charges were made, Senate hearings (chest pounding) were conducted and it was announced that the DOJ was investigating Goldman and the rest of the Wall Street banking club.

This week, I posted How Much Further Can Goldman Sachs Drop? at the behest of one of our editors. Today, amid the rumors that settlement talks are under way between Goldman Sachs and the SEC, I am wondering how much the stock will bounce when rumors become reality? I would bet a lot. I have bet a lot.

What a dumb question. How the heck should I know how low Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) might go? But everyone keeps asking me.

I guess we do know a few things or can make some very broad judgments. Let's give the question some basic reconnoitering. Perhaps with a defensive position in mind, a word with military connotations is particularly appropriate.

The stock closed yesterday at $140.10. It has been falling faster than the market under the weight of the SEC, DOJ and Congressional chest pounding. I do not think they are going out of business so lets assume it will not go to zero. Let's even stick our necks out further by suggesting it is highly improbable that it falls anywhere near its low of November 2008 when it closed at $53.31, under the truly catastrophic financial nightmare following Lehman Bros. collapse -- and fear that Goldman Sachs could be next.

The financial stocks and the overall market continued to get pounded by news out of Europe. This time it was Germany halting naked short selling. Chancellor Merkel's coalition wants to stop traders from buying credit insurance on government bonds they don't own ("naked swaps").

While there has been little support for this measure outside of Germany by governments or financial institutions, I think it is long over due. Many are crying foul, stating that it will increase interest rates, dry up liquidity, and prevent institutions from hedging their risks. I'm not so sure these would be bad things. I can think of good reasons to ban naked swaps.

I do not take this stance without due consideration because I have significant stakes in the financial sector, including positions in Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup, Inc. (C), E-Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC), General Electric Company (GE), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).