On June 23, the CEO of the world's largest dry bulk cargo shipping company warned that he actually sees a decline in shipping volumes. That's very bad news for the bullish global trade argument and a smack to the head of the Green Shoots Brigade. Dry bulk cargo is how the world ships coal, steel, and other raw materials. The Baltic Dry Index -- the daily average of prices paid to ship these materials -- has long been a key leading indicator of industrial production. And after a spectacular triple digit run, the Baltic Dry Index rolled over this week and headed steeply downwards.

During the bull market in commodities that peaked midway through 2008, shipping companies that transfer base commodities across the oceans enjoyed phenomenal runs to all-time highs before fizzling out like a Roman candle.

Companies that carry wheat, corn, soybeans, fertilizer, cement, iron ore pellets and sugar were printing money as the day rates for shipping dry commodities soared.

The rate charged by dry bulk shipping companies to buyers of commodities abroad, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), began 2008 at roughly $5,800 per day. The rate topped out at $11,700 midyear, and bottomed out in early December at $675 -- a 94% correction. Absolutely unbelievable!

Shares of the most widely traded stock within the dry bulk shipping sector, DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS), traded as high as $116 in May, reflecting the fullness of the commodity rally that seemed to be irreversible based on the glowing projections of China, India, central Europe and what are now known as "Frontier Economies," like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Following that meteoric rise in shares of DRYS to $116, the stock proceeded to careen all the way down to $3 in November.

They say that the higher you climb, the harder you fall. Well that has certainly been the story of freight carrier DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS).

A glance at the stock's two-year chart is likely to cause more than just nausea.

In 2007, shares of DRYS rallied hard on the heels of the global growth story. Chinks in the armor began to appear in the fall of that year, and DRYS sold off some of its gains. By the end of that year, shares had lost 20% of their value from the peak.

The world economy was tied tighter to the U.S. economy than most believed. Even worse, the large amount of hedge fund money in the stock ultimately resulted in the stock's demise.

And what a demise it has been.

Shares of DRYS collapsed this year amid a slowing economy and the credit crisis. Prices for bulk goods fell like a rock at a time when new ships meant more capacity.

It was a recipe for disaster, but what about now? Is DRYS a bargain trading for less than $5 per share?

On Monday, with the news of a massive stimulus plan being advocated by the President-elect, DRYS turned on a dime. Following through yesterday, the stock is up some 30%.

Judging by the most recently available statistics from the American Association of Railroads, the trade and productivity numbers currently coming out of Washington appear to be a bunch of bunk. Will someone please tell Ben Bernanke that cold hard facts will supplant pipe dreams any day?

Rail freight numbers for the week ended June 9 continue to trend downward and are consistent with trending for the year so far. By now, industrial surpluses and inventories should have been reduced to the point that manufacturing would be demanding an increased influx of raw materials, but such is not the case. Plainly put, consumer demand and domestic manufacturing are down, and it shows plainly in reduced freight numbers. The breakdown for the week ending June 9 is as follows:

• Intermodal freight (truck trailers or shipping containers): Down 3.2 percent from last year.
• Carload freight (not including intermodal): Down 5.6 percent.
• 4.0 percent fewer carloads originated from the West and 7.8 percent fewer originated from the East.
• Total cumulative rail freight volume for the first 23 weeks of 2007 was an estimated 754.9 billion ton-miles, down 3.1 percent from last year.

Canadian and Mexican railroad reports show similar trending, though not as significantly as the American declines. The single remarkable exception is the Mexican railroad, Kansas City Southern de Mexico (KCSM), which has reported intermodal volume of 4,878 trailers or containers, up 18.4 percent from the 23rd week of 2006. That significant increase, my friends, is reflective of manufactured goods they're shipping up to us.

Bear these numbers in mind the next time you get your statistical hogwash from Washington. They can tell you that more people are working and they can tell you that companies are manufacturing more stuff, but the true facts come out when the train cars get loaded (or don't).

China Venture News reports that China's state-owned shipping firm, COSCO, is initiating an IPO of 1.78 billion shares which is scheduled for the Shanghai Stock Exchange on June 26. The report states that sales of shares online began June 18, 2007. The report further states that price per share should be starting between "7.60 yuan and 8.48 yuan per share." According to the report, "Analysts expect the price to go to 15 yuan a share early in trading."

Cosco plans on using the money raised for renwewing and/or increasing its shipping fleet and has also earmarked the funds for expanding port facilities. Cosco is currently China's single largest state owned shipping operation.