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Stocks in the news: C, YHOO, MSFT, GM, BA, DAL, RYAAY, AIG, WMT ...

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) plans to sell its Japanese trust banking unit NikkoCiti Trust and Banking for about 40 billion yen ($416.7 million) as it struggles to survive the global financial crisis, according to the Nikkei. Also, a Citigroup fund, Citi Infrastructure Partners, is bidding 7.9 billion euros ($10.2 billion) to buy a Spanish highway operating firm, Sacyr Vallehermoso, the firms said on Monday.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) -- over the weekend there have been conflicting reports regarding the two. There were reports that Microsoft is going to offer $20 billion for Yahoo's search business, but then other sources said these are completely unfounded. Meanwhile, SAI posted that Sue Decker is the front runner for the CEO job at the portal company.

General Motors Corp's (NYSE: GM) board met Sunday to review a restructuring plan intended to win support for up to $12 billion in emergency funding from the U.S. government, according to different reports. GM's plan includes cuts to executive pay andcould indicate that the company will ask some bond holders to accept equity and a limited cash payout to redeem the debt they hold and focus on fuel-saving technology.

[Update 8:50 am: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) has agreed to buy breast-implant maker Mentor Corp. (NYSE: MNT) for $1.07 billion, or $31 per Mentor share, a 92% premium to Friday's closing price. The deal, expected to close in the first quarter of 2009, is expected to have a dilutive impact to Johnson & Johnson's 2009 earnings per share of approximately $0.03 - $0.05. Of course, MNT shares are up over 88% in premarket trading.]

Continue reading Stocks in the news: C, YHOO, MSFT, GM, BA, DAL, RYAAY, AIG, WMT ...

The week in preview: Canadian banks, homebuilders, Sears and food producers

Last week, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), one of Canada's oldest and largest banks, reported growth in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. But it may be the only one that does, as at least two of the Canadian banks scheduled to report fourth-quarter numbers this week have already released preliminary results that warn of lower earnings due to debt write-downs and trading losses.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) to post earnings 42.6% lower than a year ago, or $1.28 per share. CIBC beat estimates by a penny in the third quarter, but missed by a penny in the period before that. The bank faces a class-action lawsuit related to investments in collateralized debt obligations consisting of U.S. subprime mortgages. Shares have climbed 20.7% from a recent 52-week low of $39.52, but are down 37.8% in the past three months.

Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) are expected to report more modest earnings declines of $1.01 per share, $0.73 per share, and $0.83 per share, respectively. All three Toronto-based banks topped estimates in the third quarter. Toronto Dominion and RBC have recently announced plans to offer shares in order to raise capital. Toronto Dominion and Scotiabank have been trading near 52-week lows, and their share prices are down around 39% in the past three months. But only Toronto Dominion has a consensus buy recommendation from analysts.

Continue reading The week in preview: Canadian banks, homebuilders, Sears and food producers

Earnings preview: Will Sears surprise in Q3?

Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) is scheduled to report earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday, December 2. The expectation is for a loss of $0.49 per share. I think it's therefore safe to say that the retailer won't be turning a profit.

Sears has been one awful retail story as of late. Actually, just about every retailer has been awful as of late. It's no surprise, of course, considering the economy. But Sears has been experiencing challenges even beyond what can be explained by the economy. The company has been missing estimates, same-store sales haven't been great, and if you take the time to talk to people about Sears, or if you follow the comments of pundits, you'll sometimes note a tone of repulsion when it comes to the big chain.

I haven't been a fan of the shopping experience at Sears either, and it's been a very, very long time since I've stepped into a Kmart. In fact, there isn't a Kmart close to me. Eddie Lampert's enormous task of helping to turn this ship around is not one I envy. Of course, many retailers make the mistake of only focusing on merchandising in the stores and figuring out what should be in the weekly circulars. Don't get me wrong, that's important stuff. But Sears needs to engage a branding campaign to make people feel good about its stores, to feel confident about the shopping environment. When you look at TV ads by Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT), you can't help but marvel at the branding acumen of those retailers. Sears needs to get creative, too.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Sears surprise in Q3?

If gift cards are struggling, then retail is really in trouble

We all know that this Christmas is going to be particularly tough on retailers. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), as well as hipper competitors Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) and Gap (NYSE: GPS), will be fighting it out at the mall Mad-Max style the next several weeks.

It's not going to be pretty. With comps and cash flows on the line, these chains will be looking to extract as much discretionary money from consumer wallets as is heavenly possible. But there's a troubling sign with respect to a popular gift option this year.

Gift cards have been soaring in popularity over the years. Not only do they make great presents, but retailers love them because they represent a little insurance policy: if the Christmas quarter isn't as strong as a retailer would like, then redemption of gift cards will theoretically help the bottom line in the next quarter. The card purchases do not get recorded as a sale until they are redeemed. So it's like a squirrel putting food away for the long, cold winter.

Unfortunately, we have some bad news on this front: gift-card sales are expected to be down 6% this season. That's not what retail investors want to hear. It's just another reason for traders to short this sector.

Continue reading If gift cards are struggling, then retail is really in trouble

Lowe's beats earnings in Q3, but I'm not buying

Well, seems like Lowe's Companies, Ic. (NYSE: LOW) did much better than expected during the third quarter. And I was apparently too pessimistic in my earnings preview. The call was for $0.28 per share. The home-improvement retailer beat expectations by $0.05 per share, according to Thomson Reuters estimates. Hey, I tip my hat to management.

But I wouldn't buy the stock just now (unless, of course, you have a very long-term horizon, are willing to ride out the bear market, and intend on improving your cost basis through dollar-cost-averaging). My reasoning is simple: total sales increased only 1.4%, and same-store sales decreased nearly 6%. It's that bad drop in the comps that really has me worried. All retailers are suffering through lousy comps right now, and I think sales are destined to remain weak.

Yet, the market seems to be saying something else to me. Lowe's saw its shares rise over 4% on Monday, on good volume, and on a bad day for the major indexes, too. Is the market saying that all the bad news is priced in? You know, I understand the earnings game and how the market loves it when a business beats estimates, and certainly a $0.05 beat is cool, but I'm not sure that better prices are ahead for those who follow Lowe's and its stock. Consumers just won't be spending enough to justify the buying seen in Lowe's equity yesterday.

Continue reading Lowe's beats earnings in Q3, but I'm not buying

Target's Q3 report: Pretty dismal


Target (NYSE: TGT), arch competitor of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD), and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), reported earnings for the third quarter on Monday. According to my earnings preview, the call was for $0.49 per share. On that basis, Target met the expectations of analysts. But I've read some other headlines that said that estimates were beat. Apparently some of us are working off different data. No matter; it was a dismal quarter no matter how you slice it.

According to the press release, net sales advanced a mere 1.7%. Worse, same-store sales dropped over 3%. That's the important figure to consider when talking about retail. Target did okay in terms of cash from operations, but that doesn't mean that things will be great going forward. Not at all. In fact, although management produced a gain in operational cash flow, all of it -- and more -- was taken up by capital expenditures. This issue of cash is actually the big angle of the story for me. Management states in the release that it has stopped share-buyback activity and that it intends to be conservative concerning capital spending. It literally mentioned that its business is not necessarily attractive to invest in at the moment.

If that's the case, should you buy the stock now? I'd say you better think long and hard before buying Target at its current price level. As I write this, the stock is down about 2.5%. It isn't at the 52-week low, but I don't see how it won't go back there, and beyond, before the year is out. Is Target most likely a good long-term play? I'd say the company is. But it's difficult to look at this report and say that now is the time to buy, even for long-term thinkers. Sales are down, the company's credit-card business isn't scoring any points, and the outlook is not favorable. I guess I'm in a bearish mood when it comes to the bullseye retailer...

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Earnings preview: How will Target do in Q3?

Do you like shopping at Target (NYSE: TGT)? Many people do. In fact, investors are hoping that so many people like buying things at the bullseye retailer that the company will beat earnings expectations for the third quarter. Target will be reporting on Monday, November 17. What should we expect?

Shareholders should expect a drop in the bottom line. Now, did we need a source to tell us this? Probably not. The consumer is starting to feel scared, there's no doubt about it. I'm sure everyone has anecdotal evidence concerning the fear that is out there. Consumers are afraid that the job cuts being reported in the papers will eventually reach their cubicle, so they're scaling back on spending. So, if Target merely meets the expectation for $0.49 per share next Monday, I'm sure many shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief, even though that will represent about a 12% drop in per-share profit.

I'm not so sure Target will beat, though. For one thing, Brent Archer recently reported on Target's lousy October sales data. They missed Wall Street's mark. Since Target beat the last two quarters; I figure we're due for a miss considering everything that's been going on. We shall see. I'll be interested to see how the margins are doing and what kind of position the company may be in going into Black Friday. And I'll be looking at the comps, of course.

Continue reading Earnings preview: How will Target do in Q3?

Options Update: Retailers' volatility indicates continued movement

Sears Holding (NYSE: SHLD) closed at $50.22 Tuesday. SHLD Q3 results are expected in late November. Deutsche Bank has a Sell rating on SHLD. SHLD December call implied volatility is at 83, puts are at 127; above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. SHLD puts are priced higher than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

Dillards (NYSE: DDS) closed at $3.86 Tuesday. DDS is expected to report earnings soon. DDS December option implied volatility of 145 is above its 26-week average of 85 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $30.69 Tuesday. KSS is scheduled to report Q3 financial results on November 13. Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating on KSS. KSS overall option implied volatility of 84 is above its 26-week average of 64 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Credit crunch may cripple Sears holiday sales

Sears Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) may have enough capital to get the inventory it needs for its stores during holiday season, but the chain now needs to worry about whether its potential customers will have access to credit.

According to Bloomberg News, Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Sears, "and other retailers may lose as much as 8 percent of their holiday sales this year because lenders and stores are clamping down on financing."

For a company struggle as much as Sears, that much damage to sales could cause the company to close hundreds of stores and put tens of thousand of people out of work. Along with all of its brands, Sears has 3,800 stores and 337,000 employees. If its average store loses close to 10% of sales, weaker ones in the states hardest hit by the recession could lose 15% or 20%.

Sears might offer more credit to customers, but it risks that a large part of them will default or delay payments as the economy gets worse.

The Sears problem is an especially good example of what happens when a large economy goes into a flat spin. As revenue at companies drops due to falling consumer spending, those firms have to layoff workers to make ends meet. Those workers, in turn, are no longer consumers and their loss of spending power hurts GDP even more.

Sears is a weaker retailer then some, and the chances that it will have to downsize to survive are very high.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Halloween Stocks: WMT, GE, AAPL, GM, CC, LMT -- Trick or Treat?

As October -- what has been one of the spookiest ever -- comes to an end today, many will go home this evening to face the ultimate challenge: Trick or Treat.

In the market in the past month, heck, in the past year, it seems that no matter what we did we always ended with a trickster. Even some of the most stable, beloved stocks found it fitting to lose half their value. If it was market darling Apple, or whole sectors like oil and commodities, stocks in general sank, often setting new 52-week lows, multi-year lows, or even all-time lows during October.

So now, with so many stocks beaten down so much, we have to find which could be the next treat, and which the tricks.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the only Dow Jones Industrial company that is actually up this year. Investors have assumed that as the recession hits harder shoppers will turn to lower-cost venues such as Wal-Mart -- a trend that has already started. WMT shares are up 15% year-to-date and 21% over the past year, after tumbling 8% during the tough month of October. Wal-Mart -- definitely a treat.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) has exposure to the financial crisis through its financial arm and has been punished accordingly with shares down 20% over the past month alone. But is it time to buy GE? The big conglomerate is cutting costs and keeps reiterating guidance and has also maintained its triple-A rating. Could there be losses hidden in its operations? Maybe, but if it could continue growing as it did, it seems pretty cheap at under $20. Mind you, this one has never been a high-flying stock, and the uptick in the share price could take some time. Still, I'd categorize it a treat now.

Continue reading Halloween Stocks: WMT, GE, AAPL, GM, CC, LMT -- Trick or Treat?

What if retail sales go negative? Stocks to sell: CC, SHLD, GPS

Up until very recently, retail executives were hoping holiday sales might be up 2% or 3%, but most of that optimism has faded. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Chief marketing officers at 100 retail companies said in a survey by BDO Seidman LLP that they expect their companies' same-store sales in November and December to fall an average of 2.7%."

Declining sales mean some retailer companies either won't make it or will be faced with significant store closures and layoffs. Circuit City (NYSE: CC) is likely to fold as may some small retailers.

Watch for a number of other retailers to hit 52-week lows, especially those that were struggling before the downturn.

At the top of that list put Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD). Same-store sales are already weak. The stock is off to near a 52-week low at $47.57 against a 52-week high of almost $140. The retailer could easily close hundreds of stores and see its share move toward $30.

Another retailer that is having huge sales problems is Gap (NYSE: GPS). It should have closed its Old Navy line a year ago. Now, that is more likely. The stock trades at $11, down by half from its period high. Unless it does some store triage, Gap stock would go below $7.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Makeover needed: Kmart and Sears

This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.

When Kmart bought Sears to become Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: SHLD) it seemed like a perfect match. Here were two retail titans of the 1970s who had completely missed the boat of modern big box retailers. Instead of trying to sell dowdy clothes, Sears could have concentrated on hardware and become Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Instead of selling dowdy everything with surly service, Kmart could have become Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).

Now what both stores need is a makeover. They need to become that bright, wide-aisle store that people love to shop at because they find neat things they didn't know they needed. Heck, if the Kmart in my neighborhood could just manage to keep its shelves stocked and not hire the surly, it would be a step up.

Both Kmart and Sears know they have trouble, but it just may be too late to make the changes. Kmart already went through bankruptcy and closed about 300 stores. They even came up with a bright, open store prototype with wide, well-lit aisles. But then they couldn't afford to really roll it out, says Shopping Centers Today. And many think they didn't close enough bad stores.

Continue reading Makeover needed: Kmart and Sears

Wal-Mart starts the discounting early this year

One sign the snow is coming is that retailers begin their marketing for the holidays. In a bad economy the discount signs are coming early this year. It is time to break out the salt. The ice is already on the driveway and the front walk.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said it will cut prices on some of the most popular toys and speed up the opening of Christmas shops in its stores nationwide as it tries to lure budget-conscious shoppers and jump start its biggest selling season."

The news can hardly be good for most other large, national retailers. Discounts mean lower margins and discounts early in the season mean pressure on earnings for the fourth quarter. Wal-Mart has the balance sheet and cashflow to support price cuts. That may not be true of some other store operators.

The move by Wal-Mart puts pressure on much less healthy retailers like Sears (NYSE:SHLD) and Circuit City (NYSE:CC). In a credit crisis financing inventory will be hard and in some cases impossible. How may banks want to give a failing firm like Circuit City credit to buy TVs and PCs for the holidays? Not many.

Wal-Mart's move may speed up the inevitable. Some retailers won't be around to greet Santa.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Retailers brace for nuclear winter

The upcoming holiday season may be the worst in decades for retailers large and small. Upscale operations like Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) could lose big parts of their customer bases as Wall Street layoffs push a number of well-to-do shoppers out of work.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "As economists predict the worst holiday sales season since the recession of 1991, retailers are fighting back with an arsenal of new selling strategies, staff cutbacks and more emphasis than ever on low prices."

A disastrous holiday season could put tremendous pressure on weak retailers including Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and Macy's (NYSE: M). Macy's has already cut back its number of stores. Sears could be forced to close hundreds of its 3,800 K-Mart and Sears outlets.

A cratering of the retail market will cause the companies in the industry toward the sort of disaster Wall Street is weathering. Some of the largest players may not make it at all, and others will have to cut so drastically that they will never again look like they did in better times.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Ads Gone Bad: Dolce & Gabbana proves (yet again) that sex sells

This post is part of our Ads Gone Bad series. Share your thoughts and memories of this ad in the comments, and be sure to check out our other posts on marketing gone wrong.

One could question whether there could be an ad so controversial as to harm the fortunes of haute couture shops. Certainly, noted fashion house Dolce & Gabbana has tested that hypothesis with an ongoing series of sex-charged ads, one of which caused an Italian minister to accuse it of inciting gang rape.

That particular shot, in which a nubile young lady is pinned down by her wrists by a virile male under the interested gaze of several other men, was singled out for its intimation of violence toward women. Other ads by B&G have heavily homoerotic content, and one, a tableau of soldiers posed around a particularly attractive male with a bullet hole in his forehead, has even been thought by some to play on the naughty joys of necrophilia.

Continue reading Ads Gone Bad: Dolce & Gabbana proves (yet again) that sex sells

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 11:06 AM

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