In the current economic environment, a lot of companies are cutting back costs wherever they can in hopes of boosting earnings, but entertainment giant Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is taking a different approach and spending in hopes of boosting its sales.
Disney is hoping that by completely revamping its retail stores that it will be able to lure in more customers, keep them longer, and encourage more sales. In order to make the best of their new marketing direction, they have enlisted the aid of one of the greatest (in my opinion) retail designers out there, Steve Jobs.
As we continue to question whether or not America is emerging from the recession, one indicator that a lot of people are paying attention to is consumer confidence. Unfortunately, consumer confidence fell unexpectedly this month, as more and more people are worried about their jobs.
According to the New York-based Conference Board, its consumer confidence index dipped to 53.1 in September, down from 54.5 in August.
The dip ends a three month streak, and is being blamed mostly on Americans concerns over job security. The drop raises concerns over any economic rebound, and comes at a bad time for retailers that are gearing up for the upcoming holiday season.
The nations high unemployment rate impacted consumer confidence again in July, the second straight month that people's faith in the economy has wavered.
The Conference Board's index that measures consumer confidence dipped to 46.6, down from June's measure of 49.3. The good news is that we are well above the low we hit back in February at 25.3.
A big factor influencing confidence these days is the nation's unemployment rate, which is expected to rise through 10% in the not too distant future, with 15 states already reporting 10% or greater unemployment.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the back-to-school shopping period isn't expected to be strong enough to help retailers. During the past five years, this shopping period has increased; but the NRF has forecast a drop of 7.5% to $47.5 billion this year.
This isn't just a slight drop, a 7.5% drop in sales is rather staggering. In fact, roughly half of the shoppers questioned plan on spending less this year when searching for goodies to take back to school. Ken Perkins of Retail Metrics notes that this isn't just a problem for retailers during the upcoming shopping season, weak back-to-school sales is "likely a harbinger of another difficult holiday shopping season."
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) is probably the best managed specialty retailer of the pack. It's maintained strict discipline on pricing and discounting, unlike many of its peers. ANF has managed to expand its offerings into three separated branded chains selling to different markets.
And the company enjoyed accolades from Wall Street after it beat earnings estimates handily on Feb. 13, reporting earnings of $1.10 per share versus consensus of $1.01 per share. Shares were up over 10% on the news. While I think not much has changed with Abercrombie's operational expertise and its strategy, the current environment is simply not conducive to teens paying big bucks for clothes.
Popular home shopping television network QVC will be at Obama's inauguration this month to sell a full line of "limited edition" and "collectible" trinkets. The network will broadcast live from the festivities.
QVC has already sold more than 100,000 Obama items. The Associated Press reports that "Among the items QVC has been selling since the election are a Barack Obama stamp collection, with stamps from Liberia, Sierra Leone, Grenada, St. Vincent and The Grenadines ($38.88). One set has an Obama-Biden half dollar coin and a 1939 stamp depicting George Washington taking the first oath of office ($23.75). An Obama throw blanket is marked down from $41 to $36.84."
It appears to be a case of life imitating art: With just a couple weeks left before the election -- and Senator McCain's presidential hopes looking increasingly dismal -- McCain appeared on Saturday Night Live in a skit featuring him and Tina Fey as Sarah Palin hocking collectibles. Watch the video below:
Some are better than others and that has become abundantly clear during this economic recession. While the entire sector has been struggling, there are pockets of strength.
Wal-Mart and others have been cleaning up in this environment. Yes, the operating environment is challenging no matter what your prices, but those with the lowest prices are faring much better than those with higher ones.
That is why yesterday's news from Costco (NASDAQ: COST) was so disturbing.
The company announced its first-quarter earnings, and the results were less than stellar.
COST stated that in the period that ended Nov. 23, profits were only up fractionally as compared to the same period last year, even though revenue was up 4%. The company generated a profit of 60 cents per share that missed analyst expectations by 2 cents.
Although it's not a big miss in the scheme of things, I'm disappointed with the results.
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover.See all 26.
When Kmart bought Sears to become Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: SHLD) it seemed like a perfect match. Here were two retail titans of the 1970s who had completely missed the boat of modern big box retailers. Instead of trying to sell dowdy clothes, Sears could have concentrated on hardware and become Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Instead of selling dowdy everything with surly service, Kmart could have become Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).
Now what both stores need is a makeover. They need to become that bright, wide-aisle store that people love to shop at because they find neat things they didn't know they needed. Heck, if the Kmart in my neighborhood could just manage to keep its shelves stocked and not hire the surly, it would be a step up.
Both Kmart and Sears know they have trouble, but it just may be too late to make the changes. Kmart already went through bankruptcy and closed about 300 stores. They even came up with a bright, open store prototype with wide, well-lit aisles. But then they couldn't afford to really roll it out, says Shopping Centers Today. And many think they didn't close enough bad stores.
In case you haven't noticed lately, times are tough for the American economy, and this volatility is more than likely going to carry over into the upcoming holiday shopping season, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required).
In an article today, the WSJ discusses the probability of a grim shopping season, reporting that economists are predicting that retailers are likely to see their lowest sales volumes for the past 17 years. These dark forecasts come from both research and consulting firms Deloitte LLP and TNS Retail Forward Inc., but the scary part is that these predictions were made before the most recent economic troubles, and the harsh reality of what lies ahead for retailers could prove to be even worse than these current predictions.
Let's take a second look at the major factors that are going to contribute to a weak holiday shopping season (granted the list could be made much longer, but let's just highlight the main factors for now):
High fuel prices, which have fallen over the past month but are still running at historically high levels
The mall itself, which is scheduled to reopen in the fall of 2009, is seeing a major renovation from an enclosed shopping center to a three-level, 550,000-square-foot open-air retail plaza linking to the Third Street Promenade.
Leading fashion specialty retailer Nordstrom has signed a letter of intent to open a three-level, 122,000-square-foot store in the fall of 2010. "The extraordinary appeal of Nordstrom is a great match for this exceptional market, and for what we believe will be a one-of-a-kind retail project two blocks from the beach in downtown Santa Monica," Randy Brant, executive vice president, real estate, for Macerich stated.
There were high hopes that Americans would run out and spend their tax rebate checks in a hurry, and that this would be just what the economy needed to get back on track. Well, it does seem that the checks were spent, but as weaker than expected June retail figures come in, it seems that it was a weak fix to a much bigger problem.
The program worked out pretty well in May, as retail sales grew 0.8% during the month, but we were sent back to reality today as June's figures showed that retails sales in the month grew at a measly 0.1%. This was lower than the 0.4% that Wall Street analysts were expecting. Since these figures typically get re-adjusted, it is not out of the question to assume that this figure could be even lower. May, for example, was originally reported to have had an increase of 1.0%, but that was lowered to 0.8%.
Once again, we have to assume that it is record high gasoline prices that are weighing on consumer's minds, as the biggest declines came in automobiles, furniture, electronics and building materials. Auto sales of course were the biggest drag on the retail numbers, and if you look at the figures while ignoring auto sales, then retail would have actually risen by 0.8%, but that is still under the 1.0% that analysts were predicting.
In tough financial times, certain food products and food preparation ideas seem to gain increasing favor with consumers. People try to find ways to prepare nutritious and interesting meals while gaining greater purchasing power from their hard-earned dollars.
Just the other day, some of us bloggers were engaged in a lively email chat regarding some of our tried-and-true strategies for stretching our grocery dollars. As you can guess, ramen noodles almost immediately took center stage. I was entertained with stories of the many ways that the slender pasta can be made quite appealing. For instance, if you take any brand of chunky salsa, cut it 50% with water, add a sliced hot dog and pour the heated mixture over the noodles, it's really a very delicious and satisfying meal.
As the discussion ebbed, I couldn't help but be amazed that no one had mentioned SPAM, by Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL). Surely, I thought, these people must know about the illustrious history of SPAM! Could they ignore the fact that SPAM has carried literally millions of people though hard times since prior to World War II? Though there is probably a ratio of three SPAM jokes to every one SPAM recipe, the fact remains that Hormel's SPAM, in all its variations, still sells exceptionally well. It sells even better as times get tough, as indicated by a recent Associated Press overview.
For anybody who's been following the downfall of Sharper Image, there seems to be a pretty obvious lesson: when people are worrying about the rising cost of food and are scrimping to fill their gas tanks, high-priced doodads and assorted electronic gewgaws are the first things to go. The next things, of course, are luxury goods.
Saks Fifth Avenue (NYSE: SKS)and Neiman-Marcus, two of the bigger high-end retailers, reported massive quarterly profit gains in the end of 2007, but are now acknowledging that their gains have reduced considerably in 2008. Obviously, part of this is the standard post-Christmas drop, but there has also been a significant slowdown in year-to-year growth. In 2008, Saks is anticipating a minor increase over 2007's sales, but a slight decrease in gross margin.
Part of this is due to a reduction in expenditures by "aspirational shoppers," or people who can't really afford super-luxe items, but occasionally buy them anyway. What's particularly interesting, though, is that super-rich customers are also cutting back on their purchases, a trend that some analysts attribute to a contagious feeling of economic worry. In other words, the overall belief that the economy is approaching a recession is reducing spending even among people for whom the economic slowdown isn't a pressing concern. In light of this trend, Saks' stock price has dropped from almost $21 in the beginning of the year to under $13.
In this context, it looks like the next year will be tough for manufacturers and importers of high-end luxury items. After all, if the people who can actually pay top dollar are cutting back, what will happen to the people for whom luxuries are a splurge?
Shares in supermarket chain Safeway (NYSE:SWY) dropped 7% yesterday setting up investors with an interesting investment opportunity. The stock is off more than 25% from its' 52-week high. Investors were spooked about a slowdown in same store sales. I think investors need to take a second look at the company.
With an economic slowdown, many consumers will turn to home made food as opposed to eating out. This will be a big benefit to the supermarket. Another catalyst for the stock is that, unlike other food retailers like restaurants, they are able to pass on rising costs to the consumer. This will help keep their bottom line from dropping.
At these levels for investors looking for an inflation protected portfolio, you may want to take a look at Safeway.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 2/22/08.
A glut of Black Friday pricing promotions, more available shopping days and colder weather has assisted U.S. retailers in bringing back some shine to November same-store retail results. This is no surprise, but it helps the market take a deep breath after weak consumer confidence, a credit crunch that's still in progress and the lack of a "must have" holiday gift item were all worrying retailer watchers a few weeks ago right before Thanksgiving.
U.S. retailers have had a tough year this year (some worse than others) on the backs of spending pullbacks from many customer groups and tightening wallets. So far, estimates are concluding that November same-store sales results will rise 2.5% for November, ahead of the YTD rate of 2.2% through October of this year -- the slowest in over four years.
In the current economic environment, a lot of companies are cutting back costs wherever they can in hopes of boosting earnings, but entertainment giant Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) is taking a different approach and spending in hopes of boosting its sales.
As we continue to question whether or not America is emerging from the recession, one indicator that a lot of people are paying attention to is consumer confidence. Unfortunately, 
The nations high unemployment rate 
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the back-to-school shopping period 
Not all retailers are created equal. 
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. 
In case you haven't noticed lately, times are tough for the American economy, and this volatility is more than likely going to 
In tough financial times, certain food products and food preparation ideas seem to gain increasing favor with consumers. People try to find ways to prepare nutritious and interesting meals while gaining greater purchasing power from their hard-earned dollars.
For anybody who's been following the downfall of Sharper Image, there seems to be a pretty obvious lesson: when people are worrying about the rising cost of food and are scrimping to fill their gas tanks, high-priced doodads and assorted electronic gewgaws are the first things to go. The next things, of course, are luxury goods. 
A glut of Black Friday pricing promotions, more available shopping days and colder weather has assisted U.S. retailers in bringing back some shine to November same-store retail results. This is no surprise, but it helps the market take a deep breath after weak consumer confidence, a credit crunch that's still in progress and the lack of a "must have" holiday gift item were all worrying retailer watchers a few weeks ago right before Thanksgiving.
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