So, the past few days have been cool ones for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index. The market saw a nice uptrend. Click here and set the Dow to the one-month timeframe; that graph says it all. It looks like things may be okay from now on, right? Well, don't bet on it. CNBC.com reminds us about the dreaded bear-market rally. And I completely agree with the thesis: we are most likely headed back down once this market happiness runs its course.
It would simply be too easy for investors to have seen the bottom. No way, not with all the problems going on in terms of inflation and financial disasters. Oh yeah, oil has retreated, that's true, but I don't think the energy monster is in permanent hibernation. Not by a long shot. The problem with the past few days is that it plays with investors' emotions. It's played with mine, certainly. I haven't bought a stock in a while, and I really want to buy something. Maybe add to my General Electric (NYSE: GE) trade, my Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) holding. I love the dip in Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and really want to get serious about grabbing shares in Mr. Softy. My 401(k) has a lot of money waiting to be put to work. I want to transfer some of those monies into one or two of the quality mutual-fund offerings at my disposal. I can't stand having money tied up in stable-value instruments.
I just can't make a move yet. I feel that lower prices will be upon us sooner rather than later. Already, many are talking about buying opportunities for oil futures, and I fear those who hold such opinion will turn out to be correct. When oil rises again, stocks will most likely fall, and this summer fun will be just another memory of a day at the beach. I'm not saying there aren't buys out there. Again, Microsoft is looking attractive. Value investing, however, isn't. It's not the style of the day. And when value investing isn't the style of the day, your only hope is to become a deep-value investor and pray that patience is eventually rewarded.
On Tuesday, the Securities and Exchange Commission threw a brushback pitch at those who are betting on the further collapse of our big financial institutions. Instead of suggesting better oversight of the companies, the SEC is going after short sellers.
For 30 days starting Monday, short-selling will be restricted on 19 financial companies. Financial regulators are also cracking down on "sensational rumors." To put the short-selling rule in perspective, consider that even when the market re-opened after the September 11th attacks, the SEC considered, but didn't implement, short sale restrictions.
Since Bear Steans collapsed and Vanity Fair bought the company's story that short-sellers did them in, everyone is worried that short sellers are bringing the market down. And I'm sure they are, but short-selling, after all, is legal. The SEC just loosened rules on it last year.
Yesterday, SEC chair Steven Cox testified that he's worried about short-selling in connection with spreading false rumors to manipulate the market. OK, that's not legal, but as Cox pointed out, the SEC brought its first case -- EVER -- for this sort of deception this year. And it still hasn't gone after anyone for spreading false positive rumors about a company.
In a press release issued on Sunday -- presumably meant to be a warning to traders before the opening bell on Monday -- the SEC announced that "the SEC and other securities regulators will immediately conduct examinations aimed at the prevention of the intentional spread of false information intended to manipulate securities prices."
Cash-bleeding train wrecks like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) have complained that rumor-mongering has damaged investors by causing a precipitous slide in their stock prices. Bear Stearns executives have essentially blamed short-sellers for the company collapse which is, interestingly, the same argument made by Enron's former head honchos. Just saying.
I don't doubt that there's a fair amount of hanky panky on the part of short-sellers looking to profit from declines in share price, but I think that massive writedowns and a lack of transparency at these companies have been larger factors. As DealBreaker recently noted, "if a company can be brought down by the corporate equivalent of 7th grade girls passing notes in class, perhaps it doesn't deserve to exist anyway."
The Wall Street Journalnotes (subscription required) that "The need for such a move by the SEC took on new urgency after a brutal week in the U.S. stock market, where major financial firms such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were battered as rumors about everything from government bailouts to possible mergers flew across Wall Street."
Merrill Lynch recently said that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) could be hurt by slower spending for PCs and servers. The company's CEO, Paul Otellini, begs to differ. According to Bloomberg, "Seventy-five percent of our sales are not in the U.S. and global business seems very strong still," Otellini said in an interview at Allen & Co.'s media conference in Sun Valley, Idaho. "There may be some patterns in the U.S. that may be concerning to some people, but we haven't seen them at this point."
Short sellers are siding with Merrill and against the company's view of its rosy future. Shares sold short in Intel for the period ending June 30 rose 44%, or 27.4 million, to 89.2 million. That was the largest increase for any company traded on Nasdaq.
Why would investors trade against the company's own statements? Probably because they don't believe Otellini. With Intel trading at $20.64, it is not all that far above its 52-week low of $18.05. In December of last year, the stock was nearly $28.
Intel probably cannot cut through the headwinds facing the industry. Sales of PCs are not likely to do well in the second half as consumer and corporate spending are curtailed due to a falling economy. Hoping that overseas sales will make up for that is not necessarily a sure thing. China recently announced a sharp drop in the rate at which its exports are growing. That means that its GDP increases could fall sharply, sending the world's most populated country into a recession. Other Asian economies could face the same fate.
Intel is talking out of its hat. The market has figured that out.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The second largest increase in short position among all stocks traded on the NYSE was for General Motors (NYSE: GM). Shares sold short in America's largest car company moved up 27%, or 35 million, to 152.9 million. The change took place between June 13 and June 30.
The increase is amazing given that GM has been trading at a 54-year low of $9.14; short sellers are investing based on that price going lower.
But, the gamble may be a smart one. Several Wall Street analysts believe that GM may have to raise over $10 billion due to the slowdown in U.S. car sales. With a market cap of only $5.6 billion, shareholders would face huge dilution that could easily push the stock toward $5.
GM's says it will not take the route of bankruptcy, but the promise may be empty. By some estimates, the company is losing $1 billion a month in its North American operations. In the current credit environment, GM may find that selling common shares or raising debt will be difficult. Borrowing money with its "junk" debt rating could come at a very, very high price.
GM is still in terrible financial trouble and short sellers are willing to capitalize on that. They are likely to make a bundle.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
With the market looking just plain awful these days, and with the theory of recession becoming more and more concrete as the dour days pass, the concept of shorting equities is gaining popularity, at least from a headline point of view. Here's an article that talks about utilizing ETFs to go short. My colleague Timothy Sykes also discussed shorting in a recent piece of his own. Both of these articles bring up excellent points, and like Tim, I don't feel there is anything unpatriotic about betting against stocks, whether they are rising or falling. We're a capitalist society, and the trading spoils should go to the winners, whether the winners be long or short.
However, I urge all individual investors out there to think before they short. Don't take betting against a company or a market average lightly. The problem with shorting now is that it might be too late. The time to have purchased, say, the Proshares Ultrashort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) might have been a week ago. Remember that shorting is not a long-term idea, no pun intended. Going long is, so you're essentially going to become a market-timer when you invest in a short fund. There is nothing inherently wrong about trying to hedge yourself in a downward-spiraling environment, but make sure you understand that you are making a guess about the direction of stock prices. That's a tricky endeavor at best.
One thing you must avoid doing is shorting individual stocks. I think it's safer to short averages than it is to short companies. Again, if you're really sophisticated, you can do what you want, but do you have the guts to short a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)? Or what about a Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT)? A Citigroup (NYSE: C)? These are all stocks that I believe may be going lower in the short-term, but they all pay dividends, which the short-seller is still responsible for. Plus, at some point, the dividend yields will signal to investors that a bottom could be in. Besides, with short-themed ETFs around, there's really no reason to literally borrow shares and sell them into the market. There's also the method of buying put options to take advantage of a downtrending equity, so you're covered by that technique, too.
Don't know where the market is headed? Some people think a full blown crash is possible; some believe this is a good time to buy while others just don't know what to believe. Well, I just don't care and neither should you.
Because if you're like me, you've learned to take everything one high percentage profit trade at a time, whether you're betting on higher or lower prices. That's right, I'm talking about easy individual market inefficiencies like THIS.
As for the markets a whole, it's the same pathetic guessing game it'll always be, filled with plenty of "gurus" with polished-sounding theories where only a few truly brilliant hedge fund managers guess correctly with the rest of us just trying not to pull a Bill Miller (look foolish).
Short selling often tells much about what is going on in a sector, particularly when there is a common trend across the major players in that sector.
The end of May short selling can now be accessed from NASDAQ. Interestingly enough, short sellers at the end of May lightened up almost across the board on major NASDAQ biotech stocks from May 15 to May 30:
From the major names, a change in the overall trend can be spotted.
You can see the full short selling report for biotechs at BioHealthinvestor.com to see which other biotechs had an increase in short selling and to also see what the more active biotechs with lower market caps saw in their short selling activity.
How the mighty have fallen, at least in the stock market. GE (NYSE: GE) trades near a 52-week low at $31.
Now, short sellers have added insult to injury. The short interest in GE has moved up 11 million to 68.7 million between May 15 and May 30. That percent increase is almost as high as the jump in the short interest at US Air (NYSE: LCC).
The fact that so many shares are bet that GE will fall further is extraordinary. The company still holds one of the best credit ratings of any corporation in the US. Its infrastructure business, the firm's largest division, continues to do remarkably well.
But investors are assuming that GE's industrial, medical and financial operations could have more bad quarters ahead of them.
Shares in rival conglomerate United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) have far outperformed GE during the last year.
That says a mouthful.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Either short sellers don't think a merger between Sirius (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) will happen, or they don't believe that the deal will save the two debt-laden companies. Short interest in Sirius rose 20.2 million shares for the period ending April 15 compared with March 31. Total shares sold short hit 157.9 million. Shares short in XM also pushed up 6.3 million to 22.7 million.
The bets may be smart ones. The delay in approving the deal at the FCC has probably made it less likely that the merger will get the green light. A number of members of Congress have loudly protested that the new company would be a monopoly, They reason that a new entity would eventually raise rates sharply because there will be no competition to dampen prices.
The core problem with the merger may be more profound. Subscriber growth rates at the two companies are slowing. Both also have negative net income. At this point, neither company has predicted when it might make a profit.
The biggest burden that the companies have is their debt. Each has over $1 billion in long-term obligation to repay bonds and loans. In a poor credit environment, it is hard to see that paper getting refinanced at better rates.
A new company, even with some cost savings, could have enough debt to sink it.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
NASDAQ has released its short interest for the end of March, with a March 31, 2008 cut off date. Overall short interest fell by a rate of some 1.2% on NASDAQ for the two-week period to 9,657,092,223. Interestingly enough, there were a few standouts that saw some major gains in short selling.
The percentage terms on Level 3 are not that great, but the raw number of shares is significant.
These were not the only gainers out there, but the bets against some of these rising short interest stocks were staggering. You can check NASDAQ short interest on any of these stocks or others at the NASDAQ Trader site dedicated to short interest.
Twice monthly we peruse short-selling trends in individual stock names and individual sectors. Broad-based short selling is a tool to use as well, although the amount seen in ETFs has been making this trend more difficult to use as ETFs have taken up more and more volume.
We ran the top five names from the NASDAQ 100 and the stocks all saw an increase in short selling. This was taken from NASDAQ data released last night. These were the changes seen from February 29, 2008 to March 14, 2008. This is listed as shares in the short interest and there is a percentage change given as well.
The upscale retailer has embarked on an aggressive store expansion. The company will add 1.11 million square feet in 2008, more than twice that which was added in 2007. With that expansion in square footage has come an commensurate increase in short sales volume (those sold with the intention of betting on the stock price decreasing in JWN).
Analysts are fearing that while Nordstrom may have it going on in terms of hitting the fashion bulls-eye, such aggressive expansion may negatively affect the company. The same Bloomberg story quotes a Wall Street analyst who said that "slowdown in square-footage growth'' would make her more positive on the Nordstrom story.
Much as an astute investor in the stock market would use price pullbacks to add to positions he or she likes, Nordstrom is leveraging cut-backs in store expansions at competitors to land what it feels are prime locations for new stores.
With fears that the U.S. consumer will suffer more than he is presently, investors are nervous that store expansion may leave Nordstrom with a lot to sell and not a whole lot of buying going on.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
Nobody knows why the market rose 416 points yesterday. But The New York Times reports that the Fed made an extraordinary move yesterday -- it offered banks $200 billion for a month -- letting them use Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) as collateral for the loan. This inflationary move helped drive oil to $109.72, up 357% since 1/19/01 and cut the dollar declined to one Euro to $1.5469, down 68% since 1/19/01.
But beyond the inflationary impact of the move, there's less here than meets the eye. Certainly, the surprise effect might have forced investors who had a short position to cover by buying back shares. That short-covering may have had a snowball effect. But there's also this -- if banks take those $200 billion off their books, there's still $6.1 trillion worth of CDOs on the market. And what will happen to those $200 billion worth of CDOs at the end of the month?
But there is an interesting twist -- the Fed claimed in a conference call with reporters that it was minimizing risk by accepting only securities that still had the highest triple-A ratings and that they would impose a discount, on mortgage bonds that appear to carry additional risk. If there is any meaning in those AAA ratings then the banks will end up pledging their highest quality securities as collateral and retaining more of the dodgy ones.
A look at NYSE short interest as of February 15 shows that short sellers are still willing to make very large bets that bank stocks will go lower.
Shares sold short in Wachovia (NYSE: WB) rose 16.3 million between January 31 and February 15. For Citigroup (NYSE: C) shares short rose 10.9 million to 92.8 million. At Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) the number was up 6.3 million to 68.8 million.
Even with bank stocks trading near multi-year lows, a number of investors are anticipating more bad news as banks file their 10Ks for 2007 and announce their 2008 first quarter results. The short sellers have a fairly good chance of making a killing.
Big banks still have several things going against them. As the mortgage market gets worse, they may have more subprime write-downs. A drop in the credit rating at a bond insurer like MBIA (NYSE: MBI) could force the banks to write-down securities that rely on AAA ratings for some of their value. Perhaps the most important liability banks have not faced is the declining value of financial instruments based on auto loans and credit card balances.
The world is likely to get much worse for big banks and short-sellers are likely to make money on that.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
In a 
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