The market is wildly overvalued given the trajectory of the economy and is being driven by traders.

The trade of the day continues to be dollar/commodities/China, but more and more, individual stocks are being rewarded or whacked based on fundamentals, a good thing for stock pickers, but a bad thing for the vast majority of money managers who know little more than the movement of the indices.

Banks are the kink between the financial markets and the Main Street economy. They are also the lubricant -- when they are lending -- of a growing economy.

Using time-honored but now discarded accounting standards, U.S. banks, as a group, are insolvent. They are hoarding cash because deep in the recesses of little offices, they know they will be exposed as insolvent if they have to dump toxic assets on the market. They are also looking at reduced activity due to the economy and new taxes and regulations, and therefore lower profits. And when the Fed raises interest rates, their spreads will contract, also hitting profits.

With reduced national income due to unemployment, reduced spending power due to tightened credit, reduced wealth due to falling home and stock market values and reduced confidence due to all of the above, we are seeing consumers take on new attitudes toward spending.

This "New Frugal" will not be a fad that passes quickly. U.S. consumers will continue to keep their purse strings tightened.

The optimism on Wall Street about housing is surreal given all the public data on housing values, mortgage defaults, foreclosures and new home starts.

Housing prices are going to fall nationally for another couple of years as foreclosures hit 6-7 million in the next 30 months, and the 600,00 to 800,000 homes foreclosed but not yet listed are added to housing inventory. The headwinds created by this will last until foreclosures peak and those homes hit the market in late 2011 to mid-2012. Foreclosures will not hit historical norms until a year or two from that peak.

Large and rapidly growing deficits and public debt at the federal and state level will eventually lead to a rise in interest rates and to the crowding out of other spending as governments service debt. This will likely start near the end of this year or early in 2011.

And please don't blame the Democrats, the party of fiscal rectitude. The Republicans doubled the debt while they controlled the White House and Congress, financing a war off balance sheet, led by a cheerleader in chief who told people to go shopping rather than tighten their belts after 9/11. And historically, red-staters spend more on their key constituents than the Dems, so if they grab power, nothing will change.

I love my country: the chaos, the hurly-burly of democracy, the hard work of quiet people and the great, big heart as shown by our private donations to Haiti at a time of near 20% unemployment and underemployment. We forgive wayward politicians and athletes, let our children make more decisions than virtually any people on Earth and we stand for something -- a true city on a hill. But right now, that city is in political chaos ... and pretty broke.

Although, I don't like to say it, it is time to short the United States.