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Energy is crashing! Feeling bullish? Here's an easy way to invest

The energy debate rages on as oil and gas futures bounce around with 30% corrections. Which side of the energy debate are you on? Bears say that oil and gas prices are coming back down to earth. Speculators and hedge funds bid them up, global demand is slowing and alternative forms of energy will soon replace the fossil fuels we've come to depend upon. Bulls argue that oil and gas supplies are dwindling at the same time that the emerging market economies (China, India, Brazil and 20 others) need more. As their middle class population builds they too will want cars, air conditioning and electricity and demand will increase. Most oil reserves are in countries with unstable governments and when geopolitical events get ugly, prices tend to skyrocket.

I'm a long term energy bull -- 10% of my money has been in energy stocks for the last several years and today I maintain that allocation for two reasons. First, I believe in five years, oil and gas prices will be higher than they are today. Second, owning energy is a great hedge against other asset classes like stocks, the US dollar, and inflation.

No one knows which way energy prices will go next week or month so I continually rebalance my portfolio. As my energy stocks rise, I trim them and when they fall, I add to them. If my portfolio goes to 12% energy, I sell them back down to 10% and vice versa.

Now comes the easiest part – which stocks do I pick? Easy you say? Yes – because I don't worry about stock picking due to a miraculous new invention I'll discuss below. I own three energy stocks: the U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index (NYSE:IEO), the U.S. Oil Equipment & Services Index (NYSE:IEZ), and S&P Global Energy (NYSE:IXC). Through these three stocks, I own about 200 energy stocks in precise allocation percentages to parts of the energy sector, weighted according to my own preferences – 60% is in IEO, 30% is in IEZ and 10% is in IXC. Why pick stocks when I can own them all? Here's what I mean.

Continue reading Energy is crashing! Feeling bullish? Here's an easy way to invest

Analyst downgrades: O'Reilly Automotive, Corning, Lincoln National

MOST NOTEWORTHY: O'Reilly Automotive, Corning and Lincoln National were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • William Blair downgraded O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) to Market Perform from Outperform following weak Q1 results, citing the potential for further downward EPS revisions.
  • Thomas Weisel downgraded Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) to Market Weight from Overweight citing balanced risk/reward given the backdrop of a maturing LCD penetration and generational upgrade cycle, and the challenging environment.
  • Wachovia downgraded Lincoln National Corp. (NYSE: LNC) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe the weak Q1 market weakness will impact profitability.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Smith International (NYSE: SII) was cut to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Delphi Financial (NYSE: DFG) was downgraded at Friedman Billings to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • CIBC downgraded Biovail (NYSE: BVF) to Sector Performer from Sector Outperformer.

Analyst upgrades: Coach, Cerner, Smith International

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Smith International, Cerner and Coach were today's noteworthy upgrades:

  • JP Morgan upgraded Smith International (NYSE: SII) to Overweight from Neutral citing better risk/reward vs. group, and upside to estimates from Latin America drilling and its deepwater rig fleet. Note that Oppenheimer downgraded shares of SII based on valuation.
  • Jefferies believes Cerner Corp. (NASDAQ: CERN) in-line results and solid domestic bookings could alleviate the pressure on shares. Shares were raised to Buy from Hold.
  • Shares of Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) were raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, citing sales stabilization and compelling valuation.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform.
  • ThinkPanmure raised VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) to Buy from Accumulate.
  • SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.

Analyst downgrades: Large cap oilfield services, ANDE, UN/UL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Large Cap Oilfield Services, Andersons and Unilever were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded Large Cap Oilfield Services stocks citing a "more sober 2008 outlook." The firm downgraded Smith International (NYSE: SII) and Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) to Neutral from Buy, citing delays in offshore growth for the Smith downgrade and execution issues for Baker Hughes.
  • Banc of America downgraded shares of Andersons (NASDAQ: ANDE) to Neutral from Buy following the company's Q4 results to reflect a lack of visibility on FY08 growth.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of Unilever (NYSE: UN/UL) to Hold from Buy to reflect an increase in commodity costs.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Lehman lowered PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM) to Equal Weight from Overweight; shares were also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Thomas & Betts (NYSE: TNB) to Market Perform from Outperform.

Analyst upgrades: VOD, CTXS, STM, SYMM and SII

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Vodafone, Citrix Systems, STMicroelectronics, Symmetricom and Smith International were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD) to Overweight from Neutral, as they believe the company is benefiting from increased data sales.
  • Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings. The firm's checks indicate that its clear communication strategy and a stronger technology platform behind the Enterprise and Platinum editions is spurring top line growth.
  • Baird upgraded shares of STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM) to Outperform from Neutral based on new product cycle, multiple design wins, valuation, and strong Q4 guidance.
  • Cantor upgraded shares of Symmetricom (NASDAQ: SYMM) to Buy from Hold as they find the valuation compelling and are comfortable with Q1 estimates.
  • Calyon Securities upgraded Smith International (NYSE: SII) to Add from Neutral following its Q3 report and guidance.
OTHER UPGRADES:

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Last updated: October 07, 2008: 02:52 PM

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