Monday April 23

• CA World 2007 to be held in Las Vegas
• L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LLL) to report Q1 earnings, conference call at 10 a.m.

Tuesday April 24

• Defense companies Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) to report Q1 earnings.
• Low-cost airline Jetblue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) to report Q1 earnings. Will Jetblue follow Southwest Airlines Co.'s (NYSE: LUV) disappointing report (which caused two analyst downgrades)? Or is the recent increased investment buy George Soros a sign that Jetblue is doing better?
• Alternative Energy Conference, hosted by Friedland Investment Events, to be held in NY.

Wednesday April 25

• The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10:30 a.m. Will Boeing discuss Airbus's decision to halve the price of its A350 planes in order to become more competitive with Boeing's 787 Dreamliner?
• Market darling Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will also report Q2 earnings, conference call at 5 p.m.

Thursday April 26

• XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10 a.m. Investors will look for any comments relating to the state of the potential merger with Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI).

Friday April 27

• YRC Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 9:30 a.m.

While private equity firms pay bubble prices for bubble assets, Sirius Satellite Radio's (NASDAQ: SIRI) Mel Karmazin is in front of Congress attempting to consolidate an industry whose outlook is not as bad as most perceive. Mel is essentially going for the kill by getting control of an asset that will turn into a free cash flow machine in the next few years.

Financial news reports are filled with Mel in front of Congress battling for his XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR). As a reminder, Mel, over his long tenure as a radio executive, has made a lot of money for Howard, for Mel and for shareholders. Mel loves to make money for people.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have private equity firms battle for TXU Corp (NYSE: TXU), a company that was selling for $5 per share in 2002 and is now at $69. TXU is fraught with problems. The deal has to get regulatory approval in Texas and it has to address environment concerns due to its coal-fired power generation plants. In addition, there are reports this morning of a potential rival bid for the company.

Mel is consolidating an industry that is out of favor and few investors care about. The large private equity firms are paying peak prices in desperation to put their money to work.

Advice: Go with Mel and let the private equity bubble-head firms lose a fortune.

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) is simply eating XM Satellite Radio's (NASDAQ: XMSR) lunch. Mel Karmazin continues to plow forward while XM management wanders aimlessly.

Karmazin reiterated targets set in late 2006, expecting revenue to jump from $637 million in 2006 to $1.0 billion in 2007. Sirius also generated free cash flow, after capital expenditures, of $30 million for the 4th quarter -- a big accomplishment.

Karmazin also said, once again, that Sirius' growth from nascent business to $1.0 billion in revenue is the fastest growth in radio history.

What is more impressive is that while XM backed away from virtually all of its guidance for 2007 and pushed out much of its OEM growth to 2008, Sirius did not do the same. Chrysler will install Sirius in 40% of cars, Ford goes from 4 models to 22 models and Mercedes will install Sirius in two-thirds of its autos.

Not everything will be rosy. Sirius warned that data coming out regarding January 2007 comparisons with January 06, as year-over-year comps will be weak because of such strong comparisons last year due to net adds resulting from Howard Stern. Starting in February, the comps will begin to improve.

Also, churn will jump up to 2.0%-2.4% as some OEM deals reach their anniversaries, up from 1.6%.

All told, stay focused on Sirius. Content of Stern, NBA, NASCAR plus lots of other stuff appear to be driving subscriber adds. Do not run away from this industry due to XM's weak results.

Sloppy is an accurate description of yesterday's conference call. The company shifted subscriber growth expectation out to 2008, saying XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) is focused on the auto OEM and not the retail market. OEMs will begin to ramp XM Satellite services in greater numbers in 2008, management claimed.

Pushing growth out to 2008 for a so-called growth company in a so-called growth industry is not good. Also, converting customers from promotional periods to paying customers, or gross adds to net adds, remains low. Which has always been difficult to figure out in this industry.

It also came across that more and more of XM's success is based upon closing the deal with Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI). Although management attempted to say otherwise.

Management also went into some rambling about how it will always take care of customers that own older radios -- which was nice, but unclear as to why management emphasized this during the call. What are you going to do -- hang your customers out to dry?

Also, the top management change made last year appears not to be having the intended consequence. After XM started showing weakness in maintaining and getting subscribers in 2006, the satellite company brought in Nate Davis to get the company going again, but his arrival has done little to improve the outlook for this company.

Sirius releases earnings this morning. This Fly has been recommending buying Sirius on weakness and staying away from XM for a long time. Hopefully, Sirius does not push its growth targets out till 2008. We will see.

When I wrote GM/Chrysler or Sirius/XM: Two losers don't equal a winner, few readers took exception with my comments about the potential rumored auto industry merger. The same was not true about the proposed merger between Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR), so I thought I would follow up with my response:

To all the satisfied satellite radio subscribers,

I am glad you are enjoying the opportunity to be part of this trend and maybe someday I will change my mind about subscribing as well. That is, if these companies survive their 'burn rates'. Some great testimonials have been given and I have taken note. Thank you for taking the time to comment.

I am not convinced, however, that speculating on these companies from an investment perspective is sensible with all the other opportunities available out there. While many commented that traditional broadcast radio is awful and limited, the same is not true for your investment dollar.

Peace

The CEO of Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) is at it again. A merger with XM? Maybe. Mel Karmizan, the head of Sirius is playing "cat and mouse" with investors and the press.

Since Sirius is the weaker company, perhaps Mr. Karmizan has it backwards. At $4.26, Sirius is trading near its 52-week low and is down almost 50% this year. It has over $1 billion in debt. And to top it all off, the company still loses mountains of money. A merger? It may be the only way that Sirius stays in business.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc.'s (NYSE:XMSR) stock is now up over 50% from its 52-week low, trading at $15.27. XM has done a good job of restructuring its debt, and still leads its rival in the key areas of units preinstalled in new cars.

If holiday sales go well, both companies could become cash-flow positive, although that may not continue after the end of the year. It certainly will help both debt laden companies and may make a merger less necessary.

The performance of the stocks over the last three months would indicate that investors have much more confidence in XM. The larger company's stock is up 20% over the period. Sirius's stock is down 5%.

Karmizan may be right about a merger, but he may not be the last man standing.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) is trading up 3.2% at $4.22 pre-market after reporting narrower losses and higher subscribers.

The satellite radio company posted losses of $0.12 earnings per share on revenues of $167.1 million. Analysts estimated a loss of $0.14 EPS on $167 million. On an adjusted non-GAAP basis, pre-options, the losses would have been 9 cents per share.

Sirius ended with more than 5.1 million paying subscribers after adding some 441,101 subscribers in the quarter. It reaffirmed a projected 6.3 million subscribers by year-end and put its churn rate at about 1.8% (churn was 2% for this quarter). It also put 2006 revenues at roughly $615 million, although Street estimates are $623 million, and it expects an operating loss of $565 million on an adjusted basis.

Sirius' subscriber acquisition costs were $80.9 million in the quarter, although it attributed the higher costs to radio shipments and increases in certain new chip sets needed to support subscriber additions.

Sirius did note that it may reach positive cash flow in the fourth quarter, and put 2007 revenues at about $1 Billion. Mel Karmazin said that only Clear Channel and CBS Radio will be larger on the terrestrial side after next year.

Shares of XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) are down 0.4% at $13.44 pre-market on thin volume. XMSR shares already rose sharply after its own earnings results on Monday. SIRI closed up almost 7% after XMSR reported earnings.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 all St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

For general and main news here is the first morning post.

eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY), Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stocks have all gained since they reported third-quarter financial results. This article asserts that while there may be good reasons for this lift in the first three stocks, there is none in Amazon's case. The article further examines the reasons.

After XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) struck a deal with Cingular -- AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T) and BellSouth (NYSE:BLS) joint venture -- should Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI) strike a deal with Verizon Communications' Verizon Wireless (NYSE:VZ)? And while SIRI is growing faster, XM is concentrating on cost cutting.

How would Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) offering TV shows and rental downloads through its Xbox Live online video-game service (which are then beamed straight onto television sets) affect Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and its download business?

General Electric Co.'s (NYSE:GE) television studios among others could go to court after the U.S. Federal Communications Commission upheld findings that profanity aired on Billboard Music Awards television broadcasts violated decency standards. Networks would argue such arbitrary rulings violate constitutional free speech rights.

General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) revised its third-quarter loss, reducing it by $24 million to $91 million from a previously reported loss of $115 million, or 20 cents per share.

McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD) said it isn't satisfied with how its the way things are going in China. For now, however, is content to grow slower there. Also in China: Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) expects China to one day be its biggest market outside the United States. Yum Brands, Inc.'s (NYSE:YUM) China division makes up nearly a third of the company's operating profit

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) was downgraded to neutral from buy at Banc of America Securities. Earnings will not start beating expectations until 2008, not 2007. The stock, a DJIA component, was down 4 cents in pre-market trading.

With Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) determined to lower prices and ignite a fierce price war this holiday season, what should competitors do?

It seems that Sakhalin-1 project, led by Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), won't be cleared for full-scale oil exports at least until December.

Today, Yahoo!, Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) will begin testing an advertising platform fit for the smaller screens and bandwidth constraints of mobile devices.

The Dallas Maverick's owner Mark Cuban has pulled the plug on a planned weekly NBA basketball show, Mark Cuban's Radio Maverick, for Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI). An ISDN line was to have been installed in Cuban's home so that he could do the show from there. Cuban has received offers to host radio shows before. He's outspoken, inventive, and audacious; the show might have been worth a listen.

Why this decision? He explains his reasons on his popular blog: BlogMaverick. He agreed to the idea of a show only as long as Sirius had a deal with the NBA. Which it does. Basically, Cuban states he felt his presence would enhance the NBA's brand. The show would have paid him nothing; but he likes to help out when he can. "To be a good NBA partner," as he puts it.

Early morning futures are positive, pointing to a higher start for stocks.

Today, three economic data points will be released and Procter & Gamble, a Dow component, will report earnings.

At 8:30 a.m., third-quarter employment cost index will be reported. Economists are forecasting a 0.9% increase, same as in the second quarter. At 10:00 a.m., October Chicago consumer confidence and manufacturing index are due. Economists are forecasting the manufacturing index to decline to 58 from September's 62.1, but believe consumer confidence have risen due to lower oil prices to 107.8 from 104.5 last month. Keep in mind that the key jobs report will be released on Friday.

Topping the news this morning are Procter & Gamble, Verizon (again) -- both are Dow components -- Merck and Sony:

Consumer products maker Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) reported its quarterly financial results not too long ago. First-quarter profit climbed 33%. Net income rose to $2.7 billion, or 79 cents per share, on revenue of $18.79 billion. Analysts consensus called for 78 cents per share on sales of $18.56 billion. The company also lifted its full-year earnings outlook.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE:MRK), the big pharmaceutical company, will buy Sirna Therapeutics Inc., (NASDAQ:RNAI), which is developping therapies based on RNA interference, for $1.1 billion in cash, more than double the closing price -- a 102% premium.

UBS downgraded Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VZ) to Neutral.

Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) said the U.S. Department of Justice notified the company that it will conduct an investigation into possible antitrust violations in the static random access memory (SRAM) market.

Other stories:

Standard & Poor's will replace AmSouth Bancorp (NYSE:ASO) with Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ:CELG) in the S&P 500 stock index after the close of trading on Nov. 3. CELG shares rose some 4% in Frankfurt. AmSouth is being acquired by Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF). which in turn will replace RadioShack Corp. (NYSE:RSH) in the index.

Philip Morris the tobacco company that is now part of Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO), will be back in court today, trying to convince the Supreme Court that an $80 million judgment against the company was excessive.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) had started 55 legal actions worldwide targeting dealers selling counterfeit software online, according to the company. Some of the cases are against sellers who may have misused eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) or other on-line auction sites to sell counterfeit software.

Can Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) expand its share in the PC market? Could it profit from missteps from Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) while taking advantage of Intel, Corp.'s (NASDAQ:INTC) support and Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE:BBY) distribution, especially at this juncture before Microsoft's Windows Vista is launched?

Satellite radio's future: Should Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) adjust their businesses to Internet radio?

General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) delayed the purchase of a 25% of Thailand's Bank of Ayudhya PCL for 22 billion baht ($598 million).

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ), in an attempt to finally close the $4.5 billion acquisition of Mercury Interactive Corp., would waive all remaining conditions involved.

Could Brazil's biggest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, hinder Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) aspirations for growth in China as Cooxupe now aims for expansion?

Buried in Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stellar earnings reports and conference call was a comment by management that 70% of all cars will have iPod adaptors. If you are the management of XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) or Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) that is not good news.

The iPod has been primarily considered a portable device that users carry around with them. Over time, as products like speakers have been added, the iPod has evolved into a home entertainment device where music can be played in a room, not just through headphones.

Meanwhile, subscription growth rates at the two big satellite radio providers are dropping. Alternative ways to listen to commercial-free music in the car may be the reason.

While XM and Sirius are available on a wide variety of automobiles, there is often an initial cost for the service and a monthly subscription fee. With the iPod, once the device has been purchased, the only cost is for the music the user wants, not for 130 channels -- many of which remain unused by most satellite radio customers.

XM and Sirius may be up against increasing competition, and the iPod could be the one device that stops them in their tracks.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

SIRIUS Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is going to try the "give it away free for a tease" strategy to lure new users. The SIRIUS 75 channel roster will be available as SIRIUS Internet Radio for a subscription price of $12.95 per month, and SIRIUS is going to offer up Howard Stern's two channels for free for two days, October 25 and October 26.

Scott Greenstein, SIRIUS' President, Entertainment and Sports, said, "Howard being available live for the first time ever to a worldwide audience is an unprecedented event in the history of radio. Listeners can now get what they have been missing: Howard at the top of his game and more than 75 channels of The Best Radio on Radio. It's now The Best Radio on the Internet."

Will giving Howard Stern away for free for a couple days lure in the subscribers? We'll have to see what the company says and what the shows are like on those days. Doing the freebies can always be a toss-up as far as a business strategy, and you can bet that if the company starts doing this too much that Wall Street will chime in by saying they are having to dilute themselves to bring in additional subscribers.

What do you think that would do to subscriber acquisition costs?

So far traders don't seem to care, nor do they seem concerned. Shares of SIRIUS were flat at $3.88 on thin volume, and now SIRI is down 0.7% at $3.85 on only 10 million shares.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Sirius Satellite Radio CFO, David J. Frear, will be doing double duty over the next several months. His controller, Edward Weber Jr., has resigned. Weber is off to bigger and better things (for his own career, maybe) as CFO of Major League Baseball Advanced Media.

Is this a case of a major member of the management team jumping ship, or is Sirius acting as farm team? Either way, it can't be good news for the satellite radio company.