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The forensic investor: Digging deeper into financial statements

Herb Greenberg's Weekend Investor column focuses on the need for investors to be more skeptical or, as he calls it, detective-like. By looking deeper into the numbers than just the earnings per share or revenue growth, you can sometimes uncover signs of trouble before most Wall Street analysts do. And with increased disclosures as a result of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, there may be more red flags to be found than ever.

Unfortunately, I suspect very few investors have the skills to read a 10-K or 10-Q critically. Most of us just take everything at face value. But, learning a little bit of "forensic accounting" is a lot of fun (you really do feel like a detective) and may help you notice some danger signs. Here are my favorite books for digging deeper into financial statements and seeking out signs of fraud or misrepresentation:

Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports by Howard Schilit. Probably the best book on accounting fraud.

Quality of Earnings by Thorton O'Glove. I found this one dry and boring, but it's written by one of the first experts in the field, and contains some great examples.

The Art of Short Selling by Kathryn F. Staley. While not exclusively about accounting fraud, this contains some interesting stories of companies that were engaging in creative accounting. And, if you become an expert on creative accounting, short-selling may be a way to a profit from it.

Top Picks 2007: Fitz-Gerald sees Rentech cleaning up with clean coal

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Rentech (ASE: RTK) is the favorite speculative idea from Keith Fitz-Gerald, editor of The Skeptical Investor.

The advisor and money manager explains, "Rentech, a $600 million company, offers a fair shot at decreasing our dependence on foreign oil in a time frame that makes it almost immediately relevant. This is significant because it represents the first widely applicable technology I've seen work at price points that make it practical.

"Rentech, however, has a patented technology that can convert coal to oil, gasoline, or even aviation fuel at a paltry $35 a barrel. Not only is this far cheaper, but with oil now settling in the $50 to $60 range, it's going to be a lot more profitable, too. It's also an area that is being largely ignored, which, of course, makes it appealing to me.

"Most people think coal is dirty, stinky, and causes cancer. And they're right! But, there's also enough of it here in the U.S. to supply our anticipated energy needs for the next 250 years. This makes it more appealing, usable, and even convertible than all other alternative energy sources combined when viewed in the context of our energy continuum.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: Fitz-Gerald sees Rentech cleaning up with clean coal

Raytheon: Portfolio Defense from Missile Defense

While tensions in Iraq grab most of the military headlines, the geopolitical threat posed by North Korea remains ever-present. And with its dominant role in missile systems, no company comes to mind more readily than Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) as advisors and analysts assess these risks.

Indeed, Keith Fitz-Gerald, editor of The Skeptical Investor, sees this leader in missile defense as a "stellar choice" to protect one's long-term portfolio. Although involved in everything from "military radios to aircraft and satellite communications systems", the advisor is most attracted to the stock due to the firm's Phalanx weapons system, which he describes as a "super-high-speed close-in weapons defense system used aboard our naval vessels."

He says, "the Phalanx basically throws up a wall of lead and can track hundreds of targets simultaneously while prioritizing their threat level automatically." Fitz-Gerald notes that its Phalanx system is so quick and efficient that it could "actually shoot down an outbound missile if it had to."

These systems, he believes, are increasingly important due to North Korea. He says, "Raytheon has particular expertise in target identification, tracking and destruction-particularly when it comes to missiles and other weapons that some nut job like Kim Jong-Il or other rogue nations could try to rain down on our troops and allies in the future."

Meanwhile, the advisor views Raytheon as a conservative large cap stock, well suited to the current market and a worthy addition to his "Compound Growth Monsters" portfolio. And while he generally prefers a dividend higher than Raytheon's 1.9% yield, he concludes, "Given the extraordinary role this company is playing in our defense and the size of the defense contracts that are likely to come its way, I'm willing to make an exception."

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 29, 2012: 02:28 AM

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