TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer wonders whether the big selloff was caused by anxious managers locking in profits.

What happens if it is was mostly lock-in action? What if the big themes that everyone so feared weren't so big, and that the selloff -- so ugly, with so much damage -- was just technical and remains that way?

Besides my oft-repeated statement that I don't expect a pullback to exceed 7%, I think this market didn't make a lot of sense last week.

Here were the big themes: dollar getting stronger, causing a decline in minerals and resources; industrials faltering; recession stocks roaring back.

American International (NYSE: AIG) closed at $48.40. AIG options were active on volume of 380,937 contracts on September 21. October and November call option implied volatility is at 140, puts are at 152; above its 26-week average of 109, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. AIG puts are more expensive than calls because AIG is difficult to borrow.

UltraShort Financials ProShares (NYSE: SKF) is recently down 70 cents to $24.71. SKF is an exchange traded fund seeking daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index. SKF October call option implied volatility is at 65, puts are at 59, November is at 63; below its 26-week average of 92, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer wonders whether the bears can use BofA to take the market down.

All day Tuesday I pondered what the bears had in their arsenal that could really knock this market down from its overbought perch. Now we know. It's Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take). The question is, "Can BAC be exploited to take the market down?"

So many hedge funds that aren't up for the year and so many mutual funds that have been left behind will have to ponder that question seriously Wednesday. The hedge funds need to come in with guns blazing and hit the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take) exchange-traded fund, knowing that can reverberate and no one is going to stand up for individual banks right now, even though Bank of America seems "isolated."

This post was written by Minyanville contributor James Kostohryz
I believe that the market is currently poised in a binary position.

Better than expected earnings and/or guidance by the major banks and/or other major companies this week could send the S&P 500 flying past its 200 day moving average triggering a wave of long purchases and short covering (note that short interest has been rising sharply in the past few days).

On the other hand, disappointment from any of the major financials such as Goldman Sachs(NYSE:GS), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) or Citigroup(NYSE:C) and/or major companies reporting this week such as Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)or Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)could send the market reeling into a quick 10% correction.

Here is my baseline view of the week, subject to change at any moment.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we need some order -- we need some banks to survive.

Is there a writer out there who thinks more liberal mark-to-market isn't the greatest sin the regulators could ever pull off? Is there one? Today I see stories about how perfuming balance sheets is a terrible idea and reckless. I see stories about how liberal mark-to-market will confound the Treasury's public/private partnership. I see stories about how crummy bankers and corrupt pols browbeat the Financial Accounting Standards Board into giving away the store.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he needs to get in front of the AIG furor and show that he gets the magnitude of this issue.

AIG's (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) going to derail this comeback if we aren't careful. We needed three things to come together all at once to make it so the rally doesn't fizzle and everything's given back:

1. A forceful Fed that reignites housing -- the core issue still -- with a 4% mortgage rate. We have it.

2. A plan from Tim Geithner that involves both the taxpayer and the banks to take hits to turn things around.

With a stock market advance in six of the past eight sessions, the bulls are now feeling in complete control. And it is no wonder that many are calling the low of early March the end of the bear market.

The Dow Industrials are up 14.79% from the March 6 low. The S&P 500 has gained 16.64%, and the Nasdaq has gained 15.48%.

But as the indices rise to the top of the first overhead barrier, volume is declining on days when the market advances.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if they sense they're missing out on a big move, their panic could sustain a rally.

The hedge funds don't want this rally to continue, so it may just have to continue. Sometimes it is like that.

We are going to keep the rally going because of the $193 billion in new drug money and because of the lack of equity issuance and the inability of the ProShares UltraBear Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take) types to succeed right now, given the banks' newfound ability to defend themselves. Plus, despite the endless "purist" defenses of a broken system that destroys good banks as well as bad ones, I detect sensibility coming from Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, the FASB people and the SEC. The government is trying to take back the system, not the banks, and it shows in a better tone.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you don't believe the administration's action (or inaction) here will have an effect, look at Lehman.

Every time I hear that policy doesn't matter, that rules don't matter, that nothing can be done, I think two words -- "Lehman Brothers." For those of you who think that it doesn't matter what government does, ask yourself whether you would feel the same way about the world today if Lehman Brothers had been bought by another bank, and we would not have had

1. tens of billions in bonds and preferreds destroyed,
2. the buck broken,
3. tens of billions in margin accounts that vaporized,
4. a fire sale of bad assets driving all prices down,
5. a sense of chaos as you knew the government had no plan, even after Bear, Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) and everything else that happened.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer identifies the eight Dow components that will become too cheap not to buy.

When I arrived at my worst-case view that the Dow could reach 5320, my first reaction wasn't, "Look out below." It was more like, "Wait a second, how much I would like to buy these stocks at those levels?" Then I started thinking, "What do I do if it gets there and I am not in? Will it stay down there? Is it right to avoid a market that's cut by almost two-thirds in such a short period of time when some companies with really good earnings power might be selling at prices that we might never see again?"

But which ones?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that soon there may not be anymore common stocks to drive down.

The purists, the technicians, they are united on this Web site in believing that my quest to return to the old days before the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take) exchange-traded fund and the like, and the repeal of the uptick rule, live in a world without sin, and a world without manipulation. They ignore the destruction not just of ne'er-do-well Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) but Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) and just about every other bank you can name.

They worry about silly things, like the rights to short-selling profit, instead of more important things, liking having a working bank system that isn't controlled by the government. They want the government out of their trading lives but in their business lives because, given the destruction of the common stocks of banks, somehow under this administration, the only thing that matters to their solvency, they are going to get a level of government interference they would never believe.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer proposes a two-step plan for saving the banking system from spiraling into the abyss.

Somehow the gravity of this spiraling banking situation is not getting through to the policymakers, particularly Timothy Geithner, the Treasury Secretary. So in the interests of advancing the debate we need to consider how the government could get in control of the banking system without actually taking control of the banking companies.

Right now the short-sellers, those who want the banking system to fail, are destroying the common stocks of the banks through relentless short selling. On many recent days, roughly half of the overall selling of major banks' shares has consisted of common short sales plus the short sales that spring from the ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take), the weapon of choice for magnifying a small amount of capital to wreck short-side havoc on the stocks. These sales are legal, having been sanctioned by a Securities and Exchange Commission that has, unwittingly, been in league with those who need to destroy the banks in order to profit from the common stocks' demise.

United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) is recently down 60 cents to $23.68 in pre-open trading. USO unit net asset value reflects the performance of the spot price of West Texas intermediate light crude. USO March option implied volatility of 78 is above its 26-week average of 67, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

UltraShort Financials ProShares (NYSE: SKF) is recently up $10.48 to $196.60 in pre-open trading. SKF is an exchange-traded fund seeking daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index. SKF March option implied volatility of 155 is above its 26-week average of 123, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

"Tread lightly," cautions leading fund expert Bill Donoghue. In his Marketwatch Proactive Fund Investor, which develops various actively-managed mutual funds portfolios, "Further market erosion is more likely than a rally. There's little reason for optimism."

"When trends become highly probable and highly correlated with portfolio holdings, our advice may become very profitable. This is one of those times.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about to take out its 2002 low and safe-harbor investors are shifting to precious metals. Technically the next support is 25% down at 6,000.

"Considering the chronic financial damage done to the global economy, the bottom could even be lower. Even if you are a perennial optimist, you have to entertain and prepare for the possibility that the safest investment is to expect a continuing market downturn.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says financials will ramp, but don't bet on unending strength.

Since the beginning of the year, the shorts have leaned on the bank group in endless fashion. Data I have shows that on an average day, 40% to 50% of trading in JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) (Cramer's Take) is short. Much of that short selling comes from ETFs, which almost always overwhelm the regular trading volume, as I and Eric Oberg have pointed out almost daily.

Now a large part of it is the daytrading ProShares UltraBear Financials (NYSE: SKF) (Cramer's Take), a ridiculous instrument that allows daily bets on sectors as if they were ponies, and once the race/session is over you are done.