Earlier this week we were looking at oil prices, and wondering if we would see the precious crude break through the psychological $70 barrier, and that is exactly what we saw today.

For the first time since last November, oil prices were briefly above $70 today, moving up as high as $70.32 before profit taking pushed oil prices down on the day. We finished up the week at $68.44, down 37 cents.

Unemployment continues to be on the minds of most Americans, and in May the level of unemployment nation wide jumped again, up to 9.4%.

We are now sitting at levels of unemployment that we have not seen since all the way back to 1982, as another 345,000 jobs were lost last month. The good news is that this was much lower than the figure that analysts had been forecasting.

According to the Chinese customs bureau, China's December trade surplus narrowed in December. With the country's trade surplus shrinking, and its money supply narrowing, we may finally be seeing signs that the country's massive economic growth may be coming to an end.

The Beijing central bank reported the November trade surplus fell to $22.7 billion from $26.2 billion. M2, which is the broadest measure of money supply, gained 16.7% to 40.3 trillion yuan ($5.55 trillion) from a year earlier. It was the smallest rise in seven months.

China is beginning to feel the effects of recent yuan gains, weaker global expansion and cuts to export-tax incentives. As a result, its exports rose by the slowest pace in two years. As we discussed, China still plans to strengthen credit controls to avoid financial problems and a possible inflation surge. Wang Tao, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in Beijing, said that "China needs to tighten monetary policy further, given that new loan growth may rebound' as recent signs shows that the country's "economic expansion may have peaked last year."

Target Corp.'s (NYSE: TGT) is now warning the market of a slower September sales month after coming off several months of better-than-expected same-store sales. The nation's second-largest discount retailer seemed to set a scary precedent for other retailers as well, with the market thinking that a slow holiday season could set in as October approaches and the holiday shopping season begins in November.

But alas, retailers (and other companies) are known to downgrade guidance only to then beat expectations by a long shot. It's a standard tactic with many public companies, although Target's volume of housewares equipment and cheap but fashionable clothing could suffer from the housing market downturn and uncertainty about gas prices. Umm, hello? These factors have existed at the front of the line for quarters now, so why attribute possible holiday season shopping slowdowns to the most oft-mentioned causes?

On one level, it makes sense. Discretionary spending becomes tight when mounds of gift purchases are at stake, and the housing market tumble could cause skittishness in the buying public in terms of how much it spends this year for holiday gifts. This week, Target, cut its forecast for September same-store sales (sales from stores open at least a year) to 1.5% to 2.5% -- quite a drop from the previous 4% to 6%. In a sign that maybe the housing market was playing a factor, the retailer stated that sales in Florida was particularly sluggish. The state is sharing the top spot with California in terms of housing foreclosures and mortgage flops.

Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) yesterday told Wall Street that it expects June sales to come in at the lower end of its previous forecast of 3% to 5% gain.

In April, U.S. retail chains reported the weakest sales results on record, according to Reuters. While rebounding somewhat in May, sales results were weaker than a year ago. This follows Charming Shoppes Inc (NASDAQ: CHRS), Wendy's International Inc (NYSE: WEN), Best Buy Incorporated (NYSE: BBY) and Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC), all having come up short.

This is not the end of the world, simply the Fed successfully slowing down growth. Investors should view a slowdown in consumer spending as a stepping stone for the Fed to start dropping rates.

Allowing the yuan to float would slowdown China's too rapidly growing economy, says Chen Zhao, chief global strategist of the Bank Credit Analyst Research Group in Montreal. China's economic leaders have been unsuccessfully trying to slowdown growth in this emerging market, as GDP data has jumped to 11%, above the 9% targeted range.

While China officials have allowed the currency to appreciate versus the dollar, since the yuan is linked to the dollar, China's currency is still undervalued versus the euro and the yen by some 30% as the US dollar has weakened against these leading currencies since 2002. Since 1997, China's share of global exports has jumped from 3% to 9%.

Persistent currency undervaluation inevitably leads to an overheated economy as cheap exports bring in foreign reserves which increase the monetary base. Despite numerous actions to choke off growth, the Chinese stock market and economy continue to boom, with the stock market up 90% for the year and 200% from a year ago level. Real estate is also booming.

Zhao argues that the only solution is let the yuan appreciate considerably, not for American interest but for Chinese interest. This would slowdown exports and stop money supply growth.

The Chinese economy needs a serious shock to slowdown growth and control inflation. From an investors' perspective, avoid the Chinese stock market. It needs some tough monetary medicine to control this overheated economy.

Some of you laughed when Sheldon Liber pointed to sales of art and crafts in Venice Beach, Calif., as a leading economic indicator -- and some of you (like me) thought it prescient. I couldn't help agreeing, as I'm dialed into the crafts scene here in Portland, Ore., and have watched a startling decline in artsy-fartsy sales since last fall.

Reading today's MarketBeat from The Wall Street Journal [subscription required], then, I found the latest kooky indicator: Bobby. More to the point, the sales of Bobby's grilled chickens. He owns and operates a lunch grill somewhere in the Great Lakes, and his business has fallen sharply, despite lowering his price-per-lunch plate from $7 to $6.25. Notably missing amongst his regulars: the blue-collar workers.

Blogger Jeff Matthews discovered Bobby, and he believes Bobby's chicken sales are an indicator. He writes, "Being in the Midwest, and being a half-dozen hours north of Detroit, what we have here is the real-life impact of those GM and Ford oops-we-make-gas-guzzlers-and gas-is-$3.00-a-gallon headlines, multiplied across dozens of factories and thousands of lives dependent on those companies and their gas guzzlers for work." Matthews believes we'll see the impact in GM, Ford, Toll Brothers, Centex Homes, Lowes, Home Depot.

I'm fascinated to see if these theories end up being correct. Could a slowdown be in the works for the fall?