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<generator>Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/</generator><item><title><![CDATA[Best &amp; Worst: Real estate market goes soft in 2006]]></title><link>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/14/best-and-worst-real-estate-market-goes-soft-in-2006/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/14/best-and-worst-real-estate-market-goes-soft-in-2006/</guid><comments>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/14/best-and-worst-real-estate-market-goes-soft-in-2006/#comments</comments><description><![CDATA[<p>Filed under: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/category/best-and-worst-2006/" rel="tag">Best and Worst 2006</a></p><p><em><img id="vimage_1" alt="" hspace="4" src="http://www.blogcdn.com/www.bloggingstocks.com/media/2006/12/enron-gas-autos.jpg" align="right" vspace="4" border="1" />This post is written as part of AOL Money &amp; Finance's Best &amp; Worst of 2006. Vote for it as the <a href="http://money.aol.com/best-and-worst-in-money-2006/money-story-of-the-year">Money Story of the Year</a> </em><em>or check out the other nominees in the category</em>.</p>
<p>The softening real estate market reminds me of the difference between a recession and a depression. If <em>your neighbor</em> loses a job, it's a recession; if <em>you</em> lose your job, it's a depression. Regarding real estate, if <em>your neighbor's</em> house goes into foreclosure it's a real estate recession; if <em>your house</em> goes into foreclosure it's a real estate depression.</p>
<p>Last week I saw strange people hanging out in front of the house across the street from mine. One of them told me he was an auctioneer; another said she was a real estate agent and the house was in foreclosure. Since we are not in danger of foreclosing on our house, by my previous definition, we are in a real estate recession.</p>
<p>The softening real estate market is a money story of the year because it's slowing down the economy. A leading home builder said we were in the <a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin082806.html">worst housing market in 40 years</a>. In October home prices fell nationally at a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/11/28/ap3209371.html">3.5% annual rate</a> -- <strong>the biggest year-over-year price decline on record</strong>. And homeowners used their homes as a source of cash -- withdrawing <a href="http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=377">$800 billion in home equity in 2005</a>. Therefore, a reversal in home prices could boost <a href="http://www.lodinews.com/articles/2006/11/28/news/5_foreclosure_061128.txt">foreclosures</a>, reduce consumer spending, and crimp consumer confidence. Moreover, every dollar spent on buying a new house is worth another <a href="http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2006/11/07/PM200611072.html">$7 to $8</a> to the overall economy, from spatulas to fertilizer. So a decline in home building could lead to job losses in construction and its related industries.</p>
<p>I view the softening real estate market as a real estate <em>recession </em>-- if I can keep paying my mortgage, perhaps it won't become a <em>depression</em>. Regardless, it looks like things will be getting worse before they get better. I lived through a real estate slump in the late 1980s -- during which time my house lost about 15% of its value. This slump looks a lot worse to me.</p>
<p><em>Peter Cohan is president of </em><a href="http://petercohan.com/"><em>Peter S. Cohan &amp; Associates</em></a><em>, a management consulting and venture capital firm, and a </em><a href="http://www3.babson.edu/Academics/Divisions/management/facultyprofile.cfm?pageid=391236"><em>Professor of Management at Babson College</em></a><em>.</em></p><p style="padding:5px;background:#ddd;border:1px solid #ccc;clear:both;"><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/14/best-and-worst-real-estate-market-goes-soft-in-2006/">Best &amp; Worst: Real estate market goes soft in 2006</a> originally appeared on <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com">BloggingStocks</a> on Thu, 14 Dec 2006 18:00:00 EST.  Please see our <a href="http://www.weblogsinc.com/feed-terms/">terms for use of feeds</a>.</p><h6 style="clear: both; padding: 8px 0 0 0; height: 2px; font-size: 1px; border: 0; margin: 0; padding: 0;"></h6><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/14/best-and-worst-real-estate-market-goes-soft-in-2006/" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent link to this entry">Permalink</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/forward/710244/" title="Send this entry to a friend via email">Email this</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/14/best-and-worst-real-estate-market-goes-soft-in-2006/#comments" title="View reader comments on this entry">Comments</a>]]></description><category>depression</category><category>foreclosure</category><category>home equity</category><category>housing market</category><category>real estate</category><category>RealEstate</category><category>recession</category><category>slump</category><dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter Cohan]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 14 Dec 2006 18:00:00 EST</pubDate></item></channel></rss>
