Using a proprietary "volume reversal" trading strategy, Mark Leibovit has been consistently ranked among the top newsletter timers. In his VRTrader, he looks at the outlook for stocks, oil, gold & silver -- and offers his choice for exchange-traded funds for traders to play these markets.
Leibovit explains, "The stock market's decline, besides being huge, is relentless. Every rally was met with selling and fresh lows were soon hit. The Dow crashed through the March and January lows and is now trading at its lowest level since September 2006.
"Apparently, that 1500 point rally off the March low was just a giant head fake. The Dow is now down 19% since last October and the S&P is down 18%, approaching bear market territory."
"Breadth is dismal, and down volume is ten times greater than up volume. Sector action is terrible. Seven of the nine market sectors are down more than 2.5%. Ouch! Financials have done it again and have set a new five-year low. Oil spiked through previous records setting a new record high.
"The precious metals also showed strong gains today with gold up 32.80 to 915.10. We cleared the June 9th high of 907.20 touching 909.50 opening up potential to 931.00 (May 21 high).
"Keep your gold for the long-term; it's today's best investment," says Mary Anne and Pamela Aden in The Aden Forecast. "Despite normal ups and downs, we strongly believe you'll be glad that you held hold onto your gold."
"Gold, silver and most of the gold shares are about the only markets to show gains so far this year. Everything else is down, and in many cases down sharply. Gold has recently been hitting new, or multi-year highs against the euro, the Dow Industrials, bonds and oil.
"In other words, it's stronger than these other markets. Gold is outperforming them and the percentage gains are greater in gold compared to all of the other markets.
"Simply put, gold is where you want to be. Silver is good too. These are the best markets. That's why we've consistently stressed keeping a large part of your investments in gold, silver and their shares.
"Will there be a recession or not?" asks Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. In The Aden Forecast they note, "The scales are now tipping to inflation," which they view as bullish for gold and silver.
"Sure, the economy will probably slow down in the months ahead and stagflation is also a likelihood. That is, slower economic growth combined with inflation.
"The Fed and the world's largest central banks are working together in a massive, historical concerted intervention to provide all the money and liquidity that's globally needed to keep things rolling along. Money supply, for instance, is soaring at a 16% growth rate, the most in 47 years.
"The latest producer price figure strongly supported our view since it was the highest in 34 years, showing inflation running at a 38% annualized rate. Since producer prices lead consumer prices, this is a huge red flag that big inflation is coming.
"The new record high in the gold price is telling us the same thing, and so are the record highs in oil and the commodity markets. In other words, if a serious recession were coming, gold and commodities would not be soaring.
"Gold is an inflation barometer and the action in this market alone is signaling that inflation will very likely dominate the economic scene in 2008. Inflation is bad for bond prices. It usually means higher interest rates and this time is not an exception.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"The commodity bull market has a long way to run," says Martin Weiss, editor of Money & Markets. "And while individual stocks are inherently more risky than funds, they also have more potential upside. And one area with a lot of upside potential is silver. As such, my top speculative pick for 2008 is Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).
"Silver should ride a tidal wave of fundamentals higher in 2008. Above-ground stockpiles are getting very low, new mine production is lagging, industrial demand is surging and jewelry demand is growing in both China and India.
"And then there's the demand from silver exchange-traded funds, such as iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), which held over 161 million ounces of silver as of December 7, and keeps growing. India doesn't have a silver ETF yet but should have one in 2008 -- that will bring more demand to bear on the market.
"Silver Wheaton gets 100% of its revenue from silver, and has outperformed both gold and silver this year. It purchases silver from operating mines at a set rate, less than $4 per ounce, insulating it from rising costs. Its production should come in at 13 million ounces in 2007 and rise to 25 million ounces by 2010. Finally, Silver Wheaton has 362.2 million ounces in proven and probable silver reserves.
"The stock isn't cheap, but it is outperforming both gold and silver. And I expect precious metals to head much higher in 2008. Overall, I consider this a red-hot silver play."
"Gold's recent move to a new highs clearly reinforces that the metal's six year bull market is alive and well," say leading resources experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.
In The Aden Forecast, the sisters -- who have accurately forecast the bull market since its start in 2001 -- explain why they believe this upmove is part of a mega-trend that will last for many years to come.
"As the dollar falls further, gold will continue to head higher. And the unprecedented trade deficit nearly guarantees that the dollar will continue to slide. Lower U.S. interest rates reinforce this as well, and again that'll be good for gold.
"Meanwhile, U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the record high oil price means the trade deficit is going to stay huge. It'll also contribute to inflation by keeping upward pressure on consumer prices.
"So in a way, it's a vicious circle that goes something like this: high oil = large trade deficits = a weak dollar and high inflation. Spending and money creation = inflation, which all = higher gold.
Gold has shined lately, aided by near-record weakness in the U.S. dollar, strength in commodities like oil and grains, and safe haven buying amid turmoil in credit markets.
Since the low point in mid-August, the yellow metal -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) -- has gained nearly 10% and is fast approaching the highs seen in May 2006.
Interestingly, strength in gold has not quite spilled over into silver -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV). Silver is up a little more than 9% over the one-month span and remains below its 2006 and February 2007 peaks.
With gold turning down from its recent highs, some have questioned whether the 6-year bull market in metals may be ending. According to Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, the evidence points to the opposite conclusion. Indeed, they note, "Gold and silver have everything going for them and their rises have a lot further to go."
Here, the resource experts and co-editors of The Aden Forecast explain the six key factors they see that are pointing to higher metals prices.
The first two reasons are spending and money. They explain, "The world is swimming in money and that's the fuel that's been driving money assets and commodity prices up. But the magnitude of what's currently happening has never been seen before in world history."
The Adens points out that the U.S. is the world's largest debtor nation and "the government keeps spending money it doesn't have."
Since the government doesn't want to cut spending or raise taxes to reduce its debt, they note, "It simply produces money to cover its expenses, which is what governments throughout history have always done, and this amount is also huge."
In fact, in just over the past year, they observe, the amount of paper dollars that've been created is equal to half the value of all the gold that's ever been produced worldwide over the past 2,000 years, which is about $2 trillion. And it's not just the U.S. "Other countries are pumping out money like mad too. In Europe, for instance, money has been growing at the fastest rate in 17 years."