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Silver Wheaton (SLW) slides as metals futures tumble

SLW logoSilver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW) stock is declining today, as silver futures are trading lower by more than 3%. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SLW.

After hitting a one-year low of $8.83 last March, the stock hit a one-year high of $19.16 in January. This morning, SLW opened at $17.93. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.12 and a high of $17.93. As of 12:45, SLW is trading at $17.48, down 71 cents (-3.9%). The chart for SLW looks bullish and steady.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in three and a half months as long as SLW is below $22.50 at June expiration. Silver Wheaton would have to rise by more than 29% before we would start to lose money.

SLW hasn't been above $20 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $18.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of silver and other precious metals continues to rise at a meteoric rate, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance SLW might find just above $19, where the stock topped out back in January.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SLW.

The 52-week high club

This would seem to be a hard day to find stocks hitting new highs, but some industries produced winners.

Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW): It was a good day for metals stocks. This one ran up to $19.16 against a 52-week low of $8.83.

Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE: SWN): It was a good day for energy stocks. SWN moved higher to $58.63 from 52-week low of $31.14.

Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU): This coal company traded up to $63.97 from 52-week low of $36.20.

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA): This oil and natural gas operator hit $111.78 compared to 52-week low of $63.01.

Akeena Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKNS): This company licensed technology to Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.(ADR) (NYSE: STP). It moved to $11.99 from 52-week low of $2.97.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Best Stocks for 2008: Silver Wheaton (SLW) sees 'surging' demand

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"The commodity bull market has a long way to run," says Martin Weiss, editor of Money & Markets. "And while individual stocks are inherently more risky than funds, they also have more potential upside. And one area with a lot of upside potential is silver. As such, my top speculative pick for 2008 is Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

"Silver should ride a tidal wave of fundamentals higher in 2008. Above-ground stockpiles are getting very low, new mine production is lagging, industrial demand is surging and jewelry demand is growing in both China and India.

"And then there's the demand from silver exchange-traded funds, such as iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV), which held over 161 million ounces of silver as of December 7, and keeps growing. India doesn't have a silver ETF yet but should have one in 2008 -- that will bring more demand to bear on the market.

"Silver Wheaton gets 100% of its revenue from silver, and has outperformed both gold and silver this year. It purchases silver from operating mines at a set rate, less than $4 per ounce, insulating it from rising costs. Its production should come in at 13 million ounces in 2007 and rise to 25 million ounces by 2010. Finally, Silver Wheaton has 362.2 million ounces in proven and probable silver reserves.

"The stock isn't cheap, but it is outperforming both gold and silver. And I expect precious metals to head much higher in 2008. Overall, I consider this a red-hot silver play."

Top resource ideas: Frishberg's favorites in precious metals

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"Gold is a beneficiary of lower interest rates," says Daniel Frishberg, host of BizRadio and editor of The MoneyMan Gold & Oil Report.

He explains, "Gold has closed at his highest level in three decades. The precious metals market senses inflation is higher and economic growth slower than the official government numbers.

"With the price of oil at a record high and food inflation in a double digit zooming up, government statisticians will have us believe third quarter inflation was only 0.8%, the lowest level in 40 years.

"The gold market is not buying the government numbers. Regardless of what Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke says about containing inflationary pressures or what Treasury Secretary Paulson says about supporting a strong dollar policy, the U.S. dollar is being sacrificed to save the banking industry and prevent an economic slowdown and/or housing market collapse or even a recession.

Continue reading Top resource ideas: Frishberg's favorites in precious metals

Top resource ideas: Gold and silver from the Aden sisters

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"Gold's recent move to a new highs clearly reinforces that the metal's six year bull market is alive and well," say leading resources experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

In The Aden Forecast, the sisters -- who have accurately forecast the bull market since its start in 2001 -- explain why they believe this upmove is part of a mega-trend that will last for many years to come.

"As the dollar falls further, gold will continue to head higher. And the unprecedented trade deficit nearly guarantees that the dollar will continue to slide. Lower U.S. interest rates reinforce this as well, and again that'll be good for gold.

"Meanwhile, U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the record high oil price means the trade deficit is going to stay huge. It'll also contribute to inflation by keeping upward pressure on consumer prices.

"So in a way, it's a vicious circle that goes something like this: high oil = large trade deficits = a weak dollar and high inflation. Spending and money creation = inflation, which all = higher gold.

Continue reading Top resource ideas: Gold and silver from the Aden sisters

Adrian Day: Top buys in gold and silver

Gold and silver"This is a great time to be buying in the gold and silver area," says resources expert Adrian Day. In his Global Analyst newsletter, the money manager and advisor explains, "We are focusing on quality companies in the junior resource sector, following what is traditionally the weak summer period for gold prices."

One favorite of the advisor is Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), which he notes has a strong balance sheet and long-term reserves. He points out that the stock has been held down as would-be acquirer Harmony sells shares.

In addition, he states, "Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) is one of the strong balance sheets, highest growth outlook, more favorable country risk profiles among the senior miners."

Among silver companies, he says, "Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI) has a strong balance sheet (even allowing for a problem in some commercial paper it holds) of C$242 million, including bullion.

Continue reading Adrian Day: Top buys in gold and silver

Metals trio for 'monumental' gains

"Get ready for central banks to 'talk down' gold," cautions Eric Roseman in his Commodity Trend Alert who nevertheless remains bullish and offers a trio of favorites.

"Gold prices, in a secular long-term bull market since 2001, continue to impress even the greatest of skeptics," he says. Indeed, he adds, "You've got to be impressed with this price action lately, even as major economy central banks continue to sell their hoard."

The advisor points out that as major central bands sell gold, the emerging market central banks are buying. He explains, "That's the case with Russia, China, and several other countries over the last three years. If I was running a central bank, you can bet your last fiat dollar I'd be selling paper money for gold!"

The advisor forecasts that central banks will start "talking down" bullion very soon. He observes that that is what happened last June as gold prices blasted past $700 an ounce.

He says, "Pretty soon, we'll hear statements like 'inflation is too high, rates have to rise,' or 'wage inflation threatens growth.' Whatever it is, central banks will try to smash the gold price lower once again."

As a result, he expects the metals prices to be "bumpy" on their way to higher levels. Indeed, his forecast calls for a move above $850 by the end of 2008, "if not sooner."

As for specific stocks, he says, "Sometimes, you have to make big bets on great companies that are selling at major discounts to peers in the same industry." And within the metals sector, he feels that describes Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

He explains, "Now is the time to build on price weakness when the market is giving you these stocks, literally, for almost nothing. Based on assets, cash-flow and growing reserves, these three mining stocks are trading at a major discount to other premium-priced companies in the same industry."

Overall, he concludes, "We've got some monumental gains coming our way for the precious metals. Make sure you own some of the best and largest names in the business at these distressed prices ahead of next historical rally."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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Last updated: July 06, 2008: 07:59 AM

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