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Is this market depressed, manic or stupid?

One of the many cliches about the stock market is that it's never wrong. Today's triple-digit rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that markets can be depressed, manic or just pain stupid, sometimes all at the same time.

The depressed part comes from the housing market. Thinking about Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), which today slashed its dividend and posted awful results, and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), which posted terrible results and ignored signs that things were going sour, would have been enough to drive the late Dr. Norman Vincent Peale of the "Power of Positive Thinking" fame to drink.

There is no sign that the market has hit bottom. Garage sales are mushrooming in my suburban community as people sell their personal possessions to raise cash. It's really sad.

Mania set in today as investors start to wonder whether lowering commodity prices will give the economy a jolt. Remember that no car or truck was designed with oil over $100 a barrel in mind. The fact that oil is only slightly less insanely high should give no solace to anyone. Fuel got so expensive that people started driving less and began snapping up pint-size Smart Cars, which look to me as safe as a Matchbox car. This is a sign that things are bad -- not that they will improve. Mind you, the smallest wiff of political instability and oil prices will start climbing yet again.

People seem to think that the economy is going to get better through some magic elixir of a second economic stimulus package and drilling for oil. Those ideas are not only stupid, they are dangerous. Unfortunately, quick fixes are not the answer. We have to let the market sort things out. About the best the government can do is figure out a way to cushion the blow.

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 08:39 PM

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