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The week in preview: A bottom for the housing sector?

Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.

KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they are up 10.5% year to date.

Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. Friday, shares of Lennar also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they are down 6.4% year to date.

Continue reading The week in preview: A bottom for the housing sector?

Analyst initiations: BMC, SMOD and ENTR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BMC Software, Smart Modular and Entropic Comm were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Stanford initiated BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) with a Buy rating and $45 target. The firm highlights the company's broad product portfolio and configuration management database leadership and thinks margin expansion should continue.
  • ThinkPanmure assumed Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) with an Accumulate rating and $5.50 target. The firm expects better DRAM pricing but expects SMOD to experience some headwinds with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) losing share in the server market.
  • Broadpoint expects Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) to benefit from the adoption of applications that allow video through numerous devices, especially high definition and data content. Shares were started with a Buy rating and $6 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst downgrades: First Solar, Pride International, EnerSys

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, Pride International and EnerSys were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Friedman Billings downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Underperform from Market Perform citing margin risk concerns, as the company aggressively pursues utility-scale projects in the US. The firm said risks are not reflected in share valuation near $300 and could be a source of disappointment but could also lead to downside EPS risk.
  • Wachovia said Pride International (NYSE: PDE) has the least potential EPS upside vs. peers given the company has contracted the highest percentage of its floater days into 2012E. Additionally, the firm views a takeout by Seadrill as unlikely. Shares were cut to Underperform from Market Perform.
  • Merriman downgraded shares of EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the strong Q4 results were driven by a one-time benefit from lead procurement mechanics and that data does not support the company's sustained margin expansion story.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Citigroup lowered Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Hold from Buy.
  • UBS downgraded Nucor (NYSE: NUE) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
  • The Airlines Sector was cut by Soleil to Neutral from Outperform.

SMART Modular Technologies (SMOD) share price forming bullish 'flag' pattern

SMART Modular Technologies (NASDAQ: SMOD) provides value added subsystems to original equipment manufacturers in the computer, industrial, networking, gaming, and telecommunications markets. Products include memory cards/modules, embedded computing products, display subsystems and controller products. The firm also provides design, manufacture, testing, and logistics services. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) are major customers.

The company pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 18 cents and revenues of $175 million. Analysts had been expecting 17 cents and $171.5 million. Management also guided Q2 EPS to 18-19 cents (19 cents consensus) and Q2 revenues to $175-185 million ($178.71M consensus). Needham subsequently upgraded the stock to "buy".

Continue reading SMART Modular Technologies (SMOD) share price forming bullish 'flag' pattern

Analyst downgrades 9-11-07: OCR, MAS, SMOD and VDSI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Omnicare, Masco, Smart Modular and VASCO Data Security were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Matrix downgraded shares of Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's very weak performance and higher than average risk.
  • Merrill Lynch downgraded Masco Corp (NYSE: MAS) to Sell from Neutral to reflect expectations for a decline in U.S. housing starts and remodeling in 2008. The broker recommends swapping into Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI).
  • Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded to Market Outperform from Strong Buy at JMP Securities following the Q4 pre-announcement.
  • VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • RAIT Financial Trust (NYSE: RAS) was downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  • KMG America (NYSE: KMA) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings on valuation.

Analyst initiations 5-11-07: DOW, NILE, WINN and ZQK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Dow Chemical (DOW), Smart Modular (SMOD), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Win-Dixie Stores (WINN) and Blue Nile (BLUE) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • UBS is positive on the ethylene cycle over the next two years and believes Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) can beat 2008 consensus estimates, initiating shares with a Buy rating.
  • JMP Securities started Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) with a Strong Buy as a unit volume growth theme without much dependence on commodity memory chip pricing.
  • Citigroup expects further upside given Wolverine World Wide's (NYSE: WWW) strong portfolio of brands, further growth opportunities through line extensions and international growth. The firm started Wolverine World Wide with a Buy rating and $33 target.
  • Winn-Dixie Stores (NASDAQ: WINN) was started with a Market Perform rating, citing low levels of profitability and unproven ability to drive sustainable profitable sales.
  • American Technology believes the valuation of Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) leaves little room for upside, despite a highly attractive business model and strong fundamentals, and started shares with a Sell rating and $45 target...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Longbow started Mips Tech (NASDAQ: MIPS) with a Buy rating and $12 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

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Last updated: December 01, 2008: 06:00 PM

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