Well, another month's gone by, and I see that the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system is still the number-one selling console in the United States. Guess I shouldn't be surprised. According to Bloomberg, the Wii moved over 666,000 units in June. Yeah, that may be an evil number, but it's a righteous one to Nintendo, since Sony (NYSE: SNE) sold a little over 400,000 PlayStation 3 consoles last month while Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) convinced just under 220,000 users to adopt the Xbox 360. So if you add the performance of the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360 together, it's still less than Nintendo's.
Bloomberg reported that the Wii has been purchased by (or for) 10.9 million gamers, making it the number-one installed platform out there. Driving the results in June was the Wii Fit, which continues to be popular and difficult to get. However, the top-selling game software was not Wii-related, it was PlayStation 3-related, believe it or not. Metal Gear Solid: Guns of the Patriots, distributed by Konami (NYSE: KNM), sold over 770,000 discs. One big opportunity Nintendo needs to work on is third-party attachment rates. As several readers have mentioned to me, the attachment rates for the Wii isn't as good as it probably should be. Most Wii owners are in love with Nintendo-published games, but sometimes don't see the value of software made by other publishers. An increased focus on this would be helpful to the platform and its continued success.
Nintendo is setting itself up very nicely for the holiday season. Sure, it's the height of summer, but it's never too early to be thinking about the holidays, is it? I would love to get into Nintendo's stock, but I am still stubbornly holding out for a better pullback on the ADR's. I'd love to see the price close below $60 at some point.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
There will be five superheroes competing for the attention of weekend moviegoers come Friday. There's Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL)'s duo Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk, Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, General Electric Corporation (NYSE: GE)'s Hellboy (distributed by GE's Universal), and Time Warner, Inc (NYSE: TWX)'s Dark Knight. So, who's going to be the ultimate crime fighter?
I'll tell you which one prevails: Time Warner and its new Batman film, The Dark Knight, has the weekend all locked up. This is set in stone. The Hulk and Iron Man are pretty much done, Hellboy isn't a powerful enough brand name,and Hancock didn't deliver the big numbers I thought it was capable of during its debut weekend (since then, however, the movie has held up well, I have to admit). But you can bet that Dark Knight hits $100 million this weekend. Can you feel the buzz surrounding this blockbuster in the wings? I can. Several reviews I've read were full of cinematic worship for this new entry in the franchise, with special praise reserved for the late Heath Ledger and his portrayal of the fiendish nightmare known as The Joker. There's a decent marketing campaign behind the project, including promotion of the availability of IMAX (NASDAQ: IMAX) screenings. If there ever seemed a movie fit for Imax, this is it. Yeah, Dark Knight can't lose, it can only win big.
Of course, what about Time Warner's stock? It could certainly use a superhero right now, as it has been hovering in recent times not above Gotham City (although that would probably be treacherous enough) but above 52-week-low City. I can't say that a big opening weekend definitely won't move the stock a little just due to the excitement factor, but I wouldn't buy the company ahead of the film (I also wouldn't gamble with IMAX either). Time Warner simply is too large to be affected significantly by one movie. If you consider Time Warner at all, it would be for fundamentals and valuation (I think the company is cheap here, although with this market, I'd rather get it cheaper). Enjoy the movie first, think about the stock later...
Disclosure: I own GE and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Nearly every consumer electronics device from the Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Unbox to the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox has a service for downloading and playing movies. Now, late to the market, Sony (NYSE: SNE) wants to offer a similar service of its own.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Sony began offering a video-downloading service Tuesday for its PlayStation 3 videogame console, part of its aim to broaden its audience."
When one or two companies in an industry offer a new feature, it could be a competitive advantage. But the feature of downloading movies over the internet is available on so many devices that the advantage, even for those early to the market, may be taken away.
Movie download services have become a commodity and not a differentiating feature. Critics could argue that Sony should have added the product to the PS3 a year ago. But it does not matter. At this point it is just one feature among others that everyone in the industry offers. What everyone has, no one is likely to be able to use as critical leverage to get more customers.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), a competitor of IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), will report its earnings for the fourth quarter on Thursday. According to Trey Thoelcke's earnings summary, the software giant will be expected to produce sales of about $15 billion on earnings per share of 47 cents. These numbers would represent double-digit growth rates for each metric.
According to this estimates page at AOL Finance, Microsoft has cultivated a reputation for being reliable when it comes to delivering on Wall Street expectations. It certainly has the assets to keep this trend going. The company's operating-system monopoly, as well as its incredible success with the Office suite of products, guarantees a steady stream of cash flow and bottom-line predictability. Other investments, such as the Xbox 360 and the company's various Internet properties, aren't as guaranteed. In fact, Microsoft has engaged a very strange battle (strange to me and others, at least) to buy Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to bolster its future prospects on the 'net.
So, here's what investors should be looking for. I will be very interested in what management has to say about its thoughts regarding Yahoo! and its utility for Microsoft. Is it an absolute necessity? I doubt it, and I really do hope that shareholders will finally get some closure on this subject. The best thing would be for Microsoft to announce that it is done with the portal. And in terms of the Xbox 360, I would be interested in hearing any new marketing strategies being readied for the holiday season and if the current recessionary environment will have any effect on sales. Microsoft recently reduced the price for one Xbox 360 model as a way of increasing that system's value proposition in relation to the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii. The company also has entered partnerships with General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), according to Variety, to make its Xbox Live asset even more attractive to users looking for cool content such as movies and TV shows.
Now that the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, Sony (NYSE: SNE) PS3 and Nintendo Wii have been in the market well over a year and big games have been developed for each one, the longer term war for market share has begun.
Microsoft intends to win that long battle by making the Xbox more appealing to a broader group of potential console buyers. According toThe New York Times," Microsoft announced a collection of new games and services for the Xbox 360 that are meant to appeal to the everyday entertainment consumer."
One of the new features are avatars that act like humans. Gamers can make their own characters and use them in some of the games. The new Xbox features will also allow people to share photos and watch movies together.
While all of that may be exciting to some potential buyers, the biggest problem Microsoft has is not Nintendo or Sony; it is the economy. A game console, a half a dozen games and an Xbox Live subscription could cost between $700 to $900 a year. That kind of discretionary spending is disappearing among many middle class households. Oil, food and mortgage costs have simply become too high.
Up until now, sales for video games have defied the drop in the economy. If a bottle of milk costs $6 and gas $5 a gallon, the trend may end.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) didn't see a huge reaction to its earnings on Friday. I think the stock closed up by only a couple pennies. But at least its NBC Universal asset scored a hit with Hellboy II: The Golden Army. According to Boxofficemojo, it topped this weekend's domestic box office with a gross of more than $35 million. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock, however, is close. That film was in second place with a haul of $33 million. By the time final figures are out, Hancock could find itself in first place, but I doubt that's going to happen. This really seemed to be Hellboy's weekend. I have to say, though, that Hancock did much better than I thought it would for its second weekend at bat. The film will easily pull in over $200 million, maybe $250 million, before all is said and done.
Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D was number three with over $20 million. Not a particularly great debut, I don't expect too much action in the coming weeks from this one. Now, Wall-E is an important project for Disney (NYSE: DIS) shareholders since it is another effort from Pixar. Investors are still trying to figure out if the price paid for Pixar will be ultimately worth it. Wall-E is doing pretty well; it came in fourth over the weekend, and its total box-office take so far is about $162 million. Incidentally, Eddie Murphy failed horribly with his film Meet Dave. The movie, from News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), came in seventh with a little over $5 million. I didn't even know it was in the marketplace.
GE and Universal scored again at the multiplex with Wanted, which came in fifth. Its cumulative gross is now more $110 million. See that? GE can leverage quality content to bring in the revenues. If NBC Universal can synergize better with hits like these, then perhaps there won't be such pressure in terms of dumping the asset. For now, though, NBC Universal is a show-me division, and it better keep the hits coming to placate the board.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
Sorry, Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE), but your problems just got worse. According to a Wall Street Journal (subscription required) piece, sources say that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) intends on executing a price reduction for its Xbox 360 unit that is packaged with a 20-gigabyte hard drive. It now costs $349. The new price will be $299 sometime soon.
This is not good at all for the PlayStation 3 system. It's expensive, it isn't as popular, and it would be very difficult for Sony to answer this move by Microsoft with a price reduction of its own. Gamers can get the PlayStation 3 for as low as $399, but that's a far cry from $299 in an economy that is tanking thanks to energy costs and financial-sector issues. The negative wealth effect is on, my friends, and it's only going to get worse. I recently wrote about Sony and how the company has lost a ton of money with PlayStation 3. Since the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 are considered equals in the minds of many not-so-hardcore gamers, the price reduction is going to have an effect. Of course, where does this leave Nintendo Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) and its popular Wii console? Well, the Wii should be fine for now. People who buy the Wii are usually more casual in terms of gaming, so the Xbox 360 price cut most likely will hurt Sony. However, when there is eventual parity between the price of a Wii and the price of a high-end system, then Nintendo probably will see some sort of effect.
Where does this leave investors? Well, for my money, I think it leaves a best-of-breed publisher like Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVID) in a great spot. A higher number of Xbox 360s in homes means more opportunities to sell Guitar Hero units. As for Sony and its stock, investors should avoid it, in my opinion.
Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.
Activision closed on its transaction with Vivendi Games Thursday and officially became Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVID), according to an article at SmartMoney.com. And I am pretty excited at the prospects for the new business (I am a shareholder). It's going to be a tough competitor against Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO). (Of course, the latter two might merge at some point.)
Activision is riding high with its Guitar Hero franchise, and Vivendi Games brings an incredible asset to the table in the form of online gaming sensation World of Warcraft. I can't say I know much about World of Warcraft the game itself, but I know it has a huge following. What else do I need to know, right? For 2009, management at Activision Blizzard expects pro-forma operating income of over $1 billion and perhaps $1.20 or more in terms of earnings per share. That puts the stock, which rose over 5% on Thursday and closed with a price of $31.77 per share, with a P/E ratio a little over 26. That isn't too bad a valuation considering the growth potential. And when the holiday season comes around, I'm sure people will still be buying the publisher's software for gifts, recession or not. Whether it's the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, or the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, gamers will be buying the company's products for these platforms in droves.
The stock has retreated from the highs it reached back in June when I wrote about it, but I am still bullish on the thesis here. Activision Blizzard should do really well, but with the markets in turmoil, you can probably wait for a pullback before buying.
Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.
Sony Ericsson, a joint venture between Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and Sweden-based Ericsson Telecommunications Co. (NASDAQ: ERIC), announced to Billboard Wednesday that the company would be incorporating AM/FM radio features into selected new devices and phones before the end of the year. Designed for global markets, the R300 Radio and R306 Radio phones will be launched in South America first with hopes that the specific AM capability will spur emerging markets and consumer interests in sporting events and listening to music.
According to Billboard, the new phones resemble transistor radios but are not equipped "to allow users to download tracks from the radio but do have a feature that identifies the song and artist played." Sony Ericsson's marketing VP for South America, Stephan Croix, told the trade paper the devices are part of "a very simple and straightforward concept that will make music more relevant in the mass market," as opposed to more sophisticated technology like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone that merges music capabilities with phone and Internet functions.
Sony Ericsson recently issued a second profit warning for 2008, hoping to recover in the second quarter after falling behind rival South Korea-based LG Electronics in the first quarter. The warning points to declining European sales, which could indicate why the new radio/phone devices are being pushed in South American markets, in addition to the obvious reasons outlined above. The company is also hoping for a massive resurgence in quarter three with the launch of the new Xperia X1 handset in September. The release of the iPhone and how it performs after this week will only add to complications and competition Sony Ericsson may have before the radio/phones are released regionally and later globally.
Well, I was wrong about Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Hancock. Sure, I knew it was going to be the number-one movie over the Fourth of July holiday period, but come on, who didn't know that? As of this writing, Boxofficemojo estimates that the Will Smith picture took in $66 million over the three-day timeframe. However, Hancock had opened earlier in the week, and I thought that, by the time all was said and done, the film's cumulative gross by now would have been well over $100 million. Well, the cume now stands at around $107 million. I was thinking more along the lines of $125 million and above for a total tally by this point. Hancock came in a little weaker than expected, considering what seemed to be a very awesome cinematic experience as communicated by the marketing campaign.
Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E came in second over the weekend with around $33 million. The Pixar cartoon now has about $128 million to its credit. Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, was third with over $20 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Get Smart and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda were fourth and fifth, respectively. Here's an interesting note on Get Smart. Even after the holiday weekend, and after having been out in the marketplace for a few weekends, it still has yet to reach a total gross of $100 million. As of now, it has a little over $98 million in the bank. That number may change a bit when final figures are in, but in this day and age, when a summer movie with such star power (it stars Steve Carell) doesn't reach $100 million by the second weekend or sooner, it can't be considered super blockbuster material.
Well, it wasn't a terribly exciting box-office weekend. Frankly, I thought there would be more fireworks for the Fourth from these films. And as for all the stocks mentioned here, the bear market will probably keep them weak. The most direct play on the movie business is obviously DreamWorks Animation, and I would wait for that one to come in more before thinking about buying.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
It's the Fourth of July weekend, and movie studios want to capture as much money for their films as possible, even if they've already been in the theaters for several weeks. No matter what, though, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s Hancock, starring the always excellent Will Smith, is set to be the financial superhero of the weekend. Already, as of this writing, the film has taken in about $24 million through Wednesday, according to Boxofficemojo. The movie had some showings on Tuesday before its official debut in the middle of the week. It was number one on Wednesday, followed by Disney (NYSE: DIS)'s Wall-E. The robot flick so far has a total tally of around $86 million.
Poor Marvel (NYSE: MVL) and its The Incredible Hulk project. Will anybody be interested in seeing the big green guy now that Hancock is in the marketplace? Indeed, Hulk took in less than a million bucks on Wednesday, and it ranked number seven for that day. Looks like the Hulk fever is winding down at the multiplex, and it looks like Marvel's stock has had its run for the time being. The stock closed on Thursday at $31.20, well away from the 52-week high of $37.41. I still hold Marvel shares, and although there are no big catalysts on the immediate horizon, I have a long-term outlook on the company. Still, the trader in me wishes that I had lightened up on the position back at the $37 level to book some gains.
Hancock should do well north of $100 million once the Fourth of July holiday period has passed. The marketing, in my opinion, is very compelling, and from what I know about the story, it's a smart idea that provides a nice balance to the frivolous plots of Iron Man and Hulk (I'm using the term "frivolous" here with affection). Sony's scored a hit, maybe even a new franchise (I haven't seen the film, so I can't say if a sequel is feasible or not within the confines of the concept), but it won't do much to move the company's stock. Those looking to play the Hollywood game might want to wait for Marvel to pull back further from current levels.
Disclosure: I own Disney and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.
Who would have thought that privately held, 2002 upstart Vizio could upset the LCD TV market and knock giant Sony (NYSE: SNE) off of its perch?
The world of televisions is transforming itself to flat-panel, high-definition and big screens. Vizio was founded in 2002 and is taking major market share from Sony and former second fiddle Samsung. Vizio's promise to its customers is simple -- small is big. The company has only 85 employees, mostly in sales and marketing, and outsources the manufacturing to other suppliers. The key to the Vizio story is getting the product through as many retail doors as possible.
The company has signed up a couple of big wigs in the retail sales channel: Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST), to go along with Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) and Circuit City (NYSE: CC). Vizio is also available from Dell Computers e-commerce web site (NASDAQ: DELL). Vizio understands it's all about distribution, distribution, distribution.
Vizio has taken the marketing position that television decisions typically are the domain of the male of a household and, as such, has partnered up with the NFL. Football and big screen TVs are synonymous. Vizio has signed All-Pro running back LaDainian Tomlinson of the San Diego Chargers to be its spokesperson. Tomlinson is regarded as both a fine gentleman and perhaps the greatest running back since Barry Sanders. His wholesome image is magical to Vizio's marketing program.
Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) is no longer insisting on revenue sharing from mobile operators selling its iPhone, China Mobile Ltd (NYSE: CHL) said this cleared the biggest hurdle in bringing the iPhone to mainland China. They just have to resolve some practical issues now.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) shares climbed over 5.8% in after-hours trading Thursday. The builder is to report results this morning, a quarterly loss is expected.
Sony Ericsson, the joint venture between Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) warned Friday it might not see any profit growth in the second quarter, due to slowing demand for some of its higher-priced phones and a delay in shipping new models to the market and will also experience a gross margin squeeze. ERIC shares are down about 6% in premarket trading.
Man, it stinks to be Sony (NYSE: SNE). According to Forbes, the media company has lost $3.3 billion on its PlayStation 3 console so far. Wow. When the mighty fall, they fall hard. The PlayStation 3 is a heck of a powerful system, but the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii has captivated players not only with its innovative nature, but with its affordable price. Right from the start, Nintendo decided to go with less costly components so that each console sold would generate a profit. Its retail price of $250 is a lot better than $500 to a consumer's wallet, especially when a cheaper system is also a lot of fun.
And talk about a hit to PlayStation's brand equity. Here's what most people think about the third PlayStation (from my experience at least): it doesn't have a lot of games available, there aren't many kid-friendly titles offered, I don't want to pay that much for a PlayStation system so I'll just wait for further price cuts. Boy, imagine if Sony has to cut the price even further. Sony already loses a bundle on each system.
Not only is Nintendo hurting Sony, but Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and its Xbox 360 is also out there causing damage. You can pick up a low-end version of the Xbox 360 without a hard drive for around $280. Too bad Sony decided to incorporate Blu-ray and hard drives into its business model for the PlayStation 3. Admittedly, I thought it was the right thing to do at the time as well, but I guess Sony and I have been proven wrong.