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Where should granny put $50,000?

One of my wonderful friends, Ms. P, asked me for some guidance on how she might allocate $50,000 currently earning peanuts in a money market account. Though she is decades from becoming a grandmother, after a brief discussion about her financial parameters, it became clear to me that she was looking for a "granny fund."

In reality, my recommendations would be suitable, and perhaps desirable, for many passive investors as well.

The $50,000 is a portion of money Ms. P has set aside to purchase a home, which might happen in six months, but could also be pushed out further, depending on the economy and her situation. Basically, she wants to cover all her bases because she might need the money at any time and does not want to be caught short, while at the same time she would like to generate some revenue without taking any big risks.

Continue reading Where should granny put $50,000?

Serious Money: Not cheating -- market waving the caution flag

In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.

In the stock market no such rule applies. When the caution flag goes up it is a sign you may be nearing an opportunity to advance your position, and it would be foolish not to do so. I think the market has definitely had the caution flag up the last two weeks as we enter earnings season.

I have written several articles regarding watch-lists encouraging our readers to be prepared for buying opportunities, and as I look at my watch-list it appears that many stocks are nearing prices that would make it attractive to add to my position.

Continue reading Serious Money: Not cheating -- market waving the caution flag

Serious Money: Three more stocks that beat the market: BHP, RTN, SO

After finding three stocks yesterday that were a good bet to beat the the S&P 500 index going forward, I decided to pursue this notion further. Each of yesterday's stocks was in a different industry that will have strong recurring revenue and pays a dividend; energy, food and booze.

Today's three stocks are in diversified mining, electric power utilities and high-tech defense. Going back ten years, they have all trounced the index and I'm betting they will continue to do so.

Continue reading Serious Money: Three more stocks that beat the market: BHP, RTN, SO

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMZN, FDX, MRO, NOK, SUN ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Wachovia upgraded Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH) to Outperform from Market Perform based on its high margin franchise, valuation, and brand acquisition opportunities, among other reasons.
  • Canaccord upgraded Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) to Buy from Speculative Buy based on asset and management quality, size, and liquidity, and view as a potential hedge against inflation and U.S. dollar weakness.
  • Cowen upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Outperform from Neutral. The firm expects Amazon to gain more of the consumer wallet as it focuses on lower prices and a superior shopping experience vs. online and offline competitors.
  • Ctrip.com (NASDAQ: CTRP) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura.
  • FedEx (NYSE: FDX) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
  • Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AMZN, FDX, MRO, NOK, SUN ...

Serious Money: Five high-yield, safe, diversified stocks

Billions of investment dollars are sitting on the sidelines for fear of entering the market at the wrong time and losing more money after taking a bath last year. However, the market seems to have hit bottom last March and many investors missed the 40% gain from that point to now.

Market prognosticators are spewing out opinions faster than the public can grasp, or understand. I choose to stick with basic fundamental value propositions and ignore the noise.

I have been buying for the past eight months and riding the market waves, good and bad, to huge gains -- so far. Maybe I will be giving some back, maybe not, but I have also been encouraging readers to take something off the table, in several recent posts.

Continue reading Serious Money: Five high-yield, safe, diversified stocks

The Southern Co.: Safety and decent growth are hard to ignore

Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is the electric/power generation sector, which should benefit from both an expanded infrastructure and ramping demand, once U.S. economic growth resumes.

And with the above in mind, the Southern Co. is (NYSE: SO) worth a review. The Southern Co. provides power to roughly 4.3 million customers in the Southeast United States.

In general, analysts expect the economic recovery in and around Atlanta, Georgia, SO's core area, to put a bottom under earnings in FY2009. The commercial side of energy use (primarily the industrial segment), will take longer to snap-back, but a more-modest decline in the residential sector and its quicker recovery should offset that industrial sluggishness. The greater Atlanta region did not experience as large a housing bubble as the West and East, hence the bust was not as severe, from a household formation standpoint.

Continue reading The Southern Co.: Safety and decent growth are hard to ignore

Serious Money: Duke Energy & Southern 'Power-Full'

The stock market has enjoyed a strong rally the past ten weeks, even with a few very minor setbacks. If you were in the market, you enjoyed it too.

It is more likely that the market will become somewhat volatile for the rest of the year rather than continue to rise substantially, barring some outlier. For this reason I have been emphasizing to our readers that they focus their attention on creating a watchlist of stocks they would like to acquire, potentially at great discount for the long haul.

I started this recent series last week with Serious Money: Keep your eyes on UPS and FDX, focusing on large cap stocks certain to make it through these difficult times.

Continue reading Serious Money: Duke Energy & Southern 'Power-Full'

After the rally comes the tally

After a nine-week stock market rally it is time to tally up the winners and losers. In a market where almost everything gained, there must eventually be separation between those that went with the flow and those that had something to show.

The financial stocks, with the help of the government, were able to show some positive earnings. The banks do raise the suspicion that this is a case of "managing the numbers".
The government has helped them along by "reshaping" some accounting rules and giving them advance warning (and leaking to the public) of the results of its stress testing. Until now, they have gone with the flow as the hardest hit stocks and rallied the most.

Continue reading After the rally comes the tally

Reader rants, blogger listens - what's this world coming to?

One of the best things about blogging is the instant responses we receive. There are many times you have to be thick skinned when receiving criticism or just tolerant of the foolish people who are either rude or unknowing.

This brings me to Mr. noitall (small 'n' his choice) and the following commentary which followed my recent post $700 billion is real money!

"Well, maybe I was labeled a cynic about 2 years ago when I said the Fed is in a "check-mate" situation, where they will have to choose between saving the stock market, real estate market, or the dollar, but it most likely fail at all three. I don't think I am a cynic, just a realist, and it looks like I was right. Another thing I will say is massive greed, ignorance, arrogance and our willingness to believe in fantasies allowed this to happen. Maybe when a "cynic" questions some of the well known "facts", like the "buy & hold" theory, people should listen & give it some thought, before they believe the "historical data" they are given."

Mr. n and I often find common ground and he is telling the truth when he writes that two years ago he predicted the speculation and down market we are faced with today. While I must say that I find his view bleak, it has to be said also that people should be better prepared for poor markets and tough times.

While Mr n. is correct today and maybe tomorrow, his bearish outlook may not hold true next week or month or year. He does not mention the folly of straight-line analysis, but I am sure he would agree that good times do not necessarily follow good times and for the same reason bad times to not proceed in a linear fashion either.

Continue reading Reader rants, blogger listens - what's this world coming to?

All bets are off -- stocks irrational downside

There is a lot of bad news affecting the stock market and prices are falling for some very important reasons. These include reduced expectations for earnings, higher unemployment, a lack of liquidity, a housing market that has not bottomed yet, federal spending gone wild, and the collapse of some venerable financial institutions to name a select few.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index: started the year (Dec 28, 2007) at 1,478.49 and as of Friday October 3 it was 1,099.23, down 25.7%.

There are concerns about recession and even a depression and the global market for most commodities has softened.

Given all this how can I believe that the market is becoming irrational to the downside and values abound?

For one reason I know that many people are selling stocks out of fear of the market going lower and they do not want to be the last one out of the pool. That is a legitimate reason to sell but has nothing to do with the intrinsic value of a company or stock. If the index is being sold off then that means the good are being sold along with the bad.

Another factor pressuring the market relates directly to tight liquidity. I recently refinanced my home and the bank wanted me to reduce my home equity line to comply with its much tighter lending requirements. I sold some stock to accommodate them but this had nothing to do with stock valuations. I also sold some stocks and funds to buy down a commercial real estate loan in the past month. I had no pressure to do so because the loan to value is very low, but we are looking to acquire additional property as distress sales turn up and want to keep our powder dry.

Many people have been allowing their credit card debts to increase but facing little hope of growth in the stock market; those that can are selling stocks to buy down their debts where they can. This too has nothing to do with the intrinsic value of the stocks they are selling.


Continue reading All bets are off -- stocks irrational downside

Chasing Value: Southern Company is somewhere to hide

Many people are questioning why they should be in the stock market at all, now or ever. One person even asked me to show him a single stock that has had anything positive to show for itself in the last ten years.

How about something positive over the entire ten years, or at least eight. Given I have made many sour picks this year I was proud to reveal one of my best picks ever and perhaps a good place to hide if you can get in on a dip. I first mentioned it in Scary market -- any safe stocks? about fourteen months ago when the market first took a dump.

My star attraction is the Southern Company (NYSE: SO) and the following is the chart. It has been a consistent performer and paid a dividend to boot which currently stands at 4.38%. As you can see this stock would have allowed you to double your money when the Standard & Poors 500 Index is actually down.

Chart

Here is what I said back then:

  • Southern Company (SO) has been the biggest addition to our family holdings. It is now in at least seven portfolios and I have sold naked puts for November 30's. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANYBODY SELL NAKED PUTS. Selling naked puts is very risky and as they say..."don't try this at home folks." I like Southern because it is near a 52-week low, but has had five years of continuous growth. It pays a huge dividend, as utilities traditionally do, and it is located in a part of the country that has relatively low wages, cheap land, good weather, a favorable tax environment and it has seen tremendous growth in the past two decades, which I believe is very likely to continue.
I recommended it again last month in a follow up story Serious Money: 5 more stocks better than CDs -- NUE, PDS, SO, WFC, XEL.

'SO' there is good news to report even in a crappy market. Put this on your watch list. If the next ten years turn out to be as bleak as some fear they might, the dividend alone will provide you with some much needed shade from the heat.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of SO.

Serious Money: 5 more stocks better than CDs -- NUE, PDS, SO, WFC, XEL

This is a continuation of Serious Money: Choose these 5 stocks over CDs -- DEO, GE, HNP, JPM, MRK, which listed the first five stock ideas. Below are the other picks rounding out the ten.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) - This is one of the world leaders in the idea of mini-mills. This smallish steel producer prides itself on running a tight ship, pays a dividend and has a P/E under 9. The steel industry has been volatile in recent years with many mergers and acquisitions. NUE could be a takeover target as the industry continues to consolidate. In the mean time, at Friday's closing price of $51.6, it was paying a 4.05% yield and is near its 52 week low, having dropped from a high of $83.56.

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) - This Canadian supplier of gas drilling equipment and manpower is probably the least well known of the companies in this group. It has dropped off its highs with the recent sag in gas prices and may well be a bargain again although not the bargain it was when I posted Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield. At Friday's closing price of $21.35 it was paying a 7.1% yield and that is still a wonderful bounty even it the stock only appreciates a little.

Continue reading Serious Money: 5 more stocks better than CDs -- NUE, PDS, SO, WFC, XEL

Serious Money: How safe were BRK, BUD, PG, SO, & UPS?

The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.

Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven

NOT SAFE:

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) closed Monday at $65.30 down from $78.40; a 16.71% loss

Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.

Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.

Continue reading Serious Money: How safe were BRK, BUD, PG, SO, & UPS?

Serious Money: Electric utilities are the place to be

Light bulb The more questions you have these days about the investment world, and the more concerned you are about economy over the next few years, the more you should have some of your assets in electric utilities. Regardless if our nation makes a push toward nuclear, solar, or wind power or does nothing at all, electric utilities will remain the big players. Year in and year out they have a stable customer base, pay a higher dividend yield and have a much higher level of predictability than almost any other investment class.

Another factor that is likely to contribute to the growth of electric utilities is the push toward electric "plug-in" cars. I have not done any analysis as to how this will affect global warming, the price of gas, the quality of air, or total national energy consumption, but those issues aside, if we change even 25% of the nation's automobiles to all-electric over the next ten years, that is a lot of growth.

Historically, the Dow Jones Utilities Average has beaten the pants off the Dow Jones Industrial Average for total return. There are short periods of time when the Industrials jump past the Utilities, but over the long haul, investors have done much better with what seems like the less attention-grabbing, boring old utilities. Choosing boring stocks remind you of anyone? Yes, "My Pal Warren" has been buying these boring stocks over the last decade (adding to his others in chocolate, underwear, ice cream and insurance) and you can see the results in the five-year chart comparing the two Dow indices.

Continue reading Serious Money: Electric utilities are the place to be

Cramer's hot IPO for next week; plus dividend stocks

On tonight's MAD MONEY show on CNBC, Cramer was doing less trading talk.

He featured the upcoming IPO coming to market next week called AeroViroment (AVAV). He says you can buy it up to $20.00 but sell above $25.00. Here is the detail for the pricing and the background, plus what he likes about it.

Cramer also discussed what he called some "bond replacements" that are good for retirement accounts and that are similar to bonds.

He likes Consolidated Edison (NYSE:ED) and Southern Co. (NYSE:SO), because of their higher yields. Here is the comparison to the 10-year plus some rationale for why he likes them, even though he says they are boring.

Have a great weekend!

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 04:04 PM

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