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The week in preview: High hopes for solar, not so much for home improvement

Last week, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) posted a quarterly loss and lowered its guidance. But as interest in alternative energy continues to grow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are still looking for good things from solar energy concerns scheduled to report earnings this week.

Strong growth at Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) in the third quarter prompted it to lift its guidance back in October. Analysts expect the Chinese company to post profits that are 76.3% higher than a year ago, or $1.18 per share on revenues of $268.4 million (+225.0%). Though Trina Solar missed estimates in the second quarter, analysts on average recommend buying TSL. Shares are down 81.4% from a year ago and trading near an all-time low.

Earnings of rival LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) are expect to have risen 47.9% to $0.71 per share on revenues of $486.7 million (+206.6%). Also based in China, LDK has not missed estimates in recent quarters; in fact, it blew past expectations in the second quarter. Yet the consensus recommendation is to hold LDK. Like Trina Solar, LDK's shares are trading near an all-time low; the share price has fallen 50.0% in the past year.

Analysts anticipate third-quarter earnings for Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to be a whopping 96.3% higher than a year ago, or $0.54 per share on revenues of $248.0 million (+154.5%). The company easily topped estimates in the previous quarter. ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) are also expected to report earnings growth of 29.7% ($0.37 per share) and 23.8% ($0.42 per share), respectively. All three of these stocks reached 52-week lows last week, and all are considered buys.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for solar, not so much for home improvement

The week in preview: Expectations for home improvement, tech, apparel

Rival home improvement chains Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Not surprisingly, given the ongoing housing slump, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect both companies to post earnings lower than in the same period a year ago. For Home Depot, that's 61 cents per share, down 20.8%, and for Lowe's, 56 cents per share, down 16.4%. Meanwhile, cabinet maker American Woodmark Corp. (NASDAQ: AMWD), for whom Home Depot and Lowe's are major distributors, is also expected to report lower earnings: 11 cents per share, down 67.6%.

The presidential campaigns have prompted much discussion of energy policy and alternative energy sources. Some solar-energy-related concerns are scheduled to report this week, and expectations seem to be high. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is expected to report 81 cents per share earnings, up 67.9%; ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) is expected to post earnings of 32 cents per share, up 62.5%; and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) is expected to have earnings of 32 cents per share, up 21.9%. Even China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CSUN) is expected to have swung to a profit of 3 cents per share, from a per-share loss of 14 cents a year ago.

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations for home improvement, tech, apparel

Analyst initiations: BSY, SOL and CHRD

MOST NOTEWORTHY: British Sky Broadcasting, ReneSola and Chordiant Software were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Jefferies believes British Sky Broadcasting's (NYSE:BSY) exposure to discretionary household expenditure seems more dangerous than it is. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating.
  • Oppenheimer assumed ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) with a Perform rating and said it is waiting for margins to re-accelerate before becoming more constructive on shares.
  • Chordiant Software (NASDAQ: CHRD) was initiated at B. Riley with a Buy rating and $7 target and believes the recent sell-off is overdone.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst downgrades: WY, IFX, INTU, SOL, CP, PX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Weyerhaeuser, Infineon and Intuit were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) to Hold from Buy following the company's investor day, as they were disappointed that no REIT conversion will occur before 2010. Deutsche lowered their target price to $65 from $95.
  • Citigroup assumed coverage of IFX (NYSE: IFX) and downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy on valuation following the recent rally.
  • Merrill Lynch cut Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Underperform from Neutral. The rating changes reflect Merrill's new rating system based on relative recommendations within the sector.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Morgan Stanley lowered ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
  • RBC Capital downgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  • Praxair (NYSE: PX) was downgraded at HSBC to Neutral from Overweight.

Solar stocks are ready to heat up

Over the past few months, solar stocks have had more than their fair share of ups and downs. Last month, they were so volatile it seemed as if I was writing an article about another solar play every other day, introducing investors to the sector by casting the characters in a fictional movie to be called Solar's Eleven, encouraging buying on breakouts in this article, and warning investors to drop them as if they were poorly selling music artists in this article. (Yes, I go over the top sometimes, but it's all to help you better understand how the stock market works.)

I know buy and hold investors don't understand how I can change my mind so quickly about the same companies, but as you can tell from the charts of stocks like Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF), DayStar Technologies (NASDAQ: DSTI), Akeena Solar (NASDAQ: AKNS), Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) and China Sunenergy (NASDAQ: CSUN), remaining nimble is key to profiting from this sector's volatility. In fact, only JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) have managed to hold near their highs.

So, what changed? Perception. While these companies all still have great potential, they are speculative and in bear markets, speculative stocks, especially those that don't continuously put out spectacular news, get crushed -- as shareholders in Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) and VMware (NYSE: VMW) have learned the hard way.

Continue reading Solar stocks are ready to heat up

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-679.958,149.09
NASDAQ-137.501,398.07
S&P 500-80.03816.21

Last updated: December 01, 2008: 11:06 PM

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